DOW up 1300 points in early trading

[bjl584]

Stock market today: Live updates

[ua_guy]

Yes, lots of foaming at the mouth over the prospect of cheap gas and big corporate tax breaks. It's a good day to be invested. Long term? Hard to say.

[disneysteve]

Yes, lots of foaming at the mouth over the prospect of cheap gas

Gas is $2.75. I'm not sure how much lower people expect it to go.
Inflation is 2.4%
Unemployment is 4.1%
Stock market has been hitting record highs repeatedly.
Interest rates have already started dropping.
You couldn't possibly ask for a stronger economy than we've already been enjoying. I have no idea what it is certain people want to happen.

[ua_guy]

Gas is $2.75. I'm not sure how much lower people expect it to go.
Inflation is 2.4%
Unemployment is 4.1%
Stock market has been hitting record highs repeatedly.
Interest rates have already started dropping.
You couldn't possibly ask for a stronger economy than we've already been enjoying. I have no idea what it is certain people want to happen.

Proof is in the pudding, the market says that doesn't matter because the "economy" isn't judged by traditional indicators anymore. We've been operating within a populist economy for quite some time. "Good" is low/zero interest rates, gas under $2.00/gallon, a filling lunch out under $7, and all minimum wage jobs filled. Populism believes the economy, and personal wealth for that matter, is held back by veiled legislation designed to make the life of a working person harder.

[disneysteve]

Well they sure won’t be happy when tariffs are imposed which will lead to runaway inflation and skyrocketing unemployment.

[kork13]

If anyone has shares of.... anything, almost .... that you want/need to offload for whatever reason, now might be a good time for it, while the market is amped up on hopes & dreams.

I need to figure out the best way to go for TLH before year's end... I've got some long-standing losses that I can play with, just need to decide what gains I want to offset.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

TLH is only good for taxable accounts. I'm not sure you should be dumping stuff. I suspect we are going to juice the market for another year. And I understand fully tariffs will make things VERY expensive. But again i'm not sure if it will pass. Another interesting point that I think is good is will Elon Musk actually be allowed to take a hachet to the federal government employees and hack away? I mean he fired 90% of twitter and the company kept on going. He obviously knows how to cut and push more productivity so...Apparently they are going to reclassify the civil servants and fire them.

That will be an interesting thing to watch. Personally i would cheer if we shrank government. I doubt it'll shrink the debt, i was listening to a economics podcast. That 54% of federal budget is SS and Medicare. 25% is military. The last 20% is what the government can actually spend. So if you can't touch SS and Medicare...OR can you?

I could see it maybe raising Medicare and SS Full Retirement Age (FRA) to 70 for both! Not a "cut" per se but a cut if you understand how economics work. I will admit that the amount of money I made today I shook my head. I could only say MAGA! Well either way the country has spoken so we have to go along for the ride and hang on.

[ua_guy]

TLH is only good for taxable accounts. I'm not sure you should be dumping stuff. I suspect we are going to juice the market for another year. And I understand fully tariffs will make things VERY expensive. But again i'm not sure if it will pass. Another interesting point that I think is good is will Elon Musk actually be allowed to take a hachet to the federal government employees and hack away? I mean he fired 90% of twitter and the company kept on going. He obviously knows how to cut and push more productivity so...Apparently they are going to reclassify the civil servants and fire them.

That will be an interesting thing to watch. Personally i would cheer if we shrank government. I doubt it'll shrink the debt, i was listening to a economics podcast. That 54% of federal budget is SS and Medicare. 25% is military. The last 20% is what the government can actually spend. So if you can't touch SS and Medicare...OR can you?

I could see it maybe raising Medicare and SS Full Retirement Age (FRA) to 70 for both! Not a "cut" per se but a cut if you understand how economics work. I will admit that the amount of money I made today I shook my head. I could only say MAGA! Well either way the country has spoken so we have to go along for the ride and hang on.

Wait 'till your SS gets privatized and/or you're not eligible until you're 70+. MAGA. I'd probably start planning for that now.

[kork13]

Wait 'till your SS gets privatized and/or you're not eligible until you're 70+. MAGA. I'd probably start planning for that now.

In fairness, I've been planning for SS to be effectively a non-factor by the time I'm retired... The program has been in progressively increasing trouble for decades. Who knows where it'll end up, but I think anyone younger than 40-ish would be unwise to plan any kind of reliance upon SS. But this is all probably a topic for a different thread.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

Wait 'till your SS gets privatized and/or you're not eligible until you're 70+. MAGA. I'd probably start planning for that now.

Never planned on SS or medicare. And I planned on retiring way sooner so it was always a moot point. FIRE was always the plan. But the SS will be gravy at least for us.

[ua_guy]

In fairness, I've been planning for SS to be effectively a non-factor by the time I'm retired... The program has been in progressively increasing trouble for decades. Who knows where it'll end up, but I think anyone younger than 40-ish would be unwise to plan any kind of reliance upon SS. But this is all probably a topic for a different thread.

It is, but it's also something to consider. Most people haven't planned the way we have, and they will rely on SS.

[myrdale]

Relying on the government to fund your retirement is a poor idea.

I honestly don't have the first clue who did or didn't raid social security or the exact way in which it is structured. Ultimately what you put in should, on average cover what you're expected to take out.

That the national debt is $36T I find mind boggling. But even the categories of those debts isn't fully clear to me. A balanced budget across all of government should be required with actual limits to what they can borrow.

I've never done the calculation for what my interest rate on the money I've paid in is, I suspect it doesn't hold a candle to my other retirement accounts. Google suggest 3% at best.

[ua_guy]

Relying on the government to fund your retirement is a poor idea.

SS was never meant to fund most people's idea of a golden-years retirement. It was meant to be a fallback, a safety net, which is why it's called Social Security.