Legal cannabis on pace to match U.S. soda sales by 2030

[james.hendrickson]

From The thecannifornian.com

--------------------------------------------------------


Pot may be on its way to beating pop. (Editor’s note: Yes, we know it’s called “soda” out here on the West Coast, but we didn’t want to mess with this writer’s lead.)

The U.S. legal cannabis industry is expected to reach $75 billion in sales by 2030, according to research firm Cowen & Co. That’s almost as large as the North American carbonated soft drink market in 2017.

With the industries’ diverging trajectories, weed may be poised to take the mantle as the larger industry. Cannabis is growing rapidly as more states legalize the plant. Nine states and Washington, D.C. now allow for recreational pot use. That means more than one in five American adults can smoke, vape, eat or drink it however they please. Cowen previously predicted that the market, assuming federal legalization, would reach $50 billion by 2026. That seems small now, according to analyst Vivien Azer.

“New forecasts suggest that the market is already that size,” she said in a note Wednesday.

Meanwhile, soda sales are on the decline as increasingly health-conscious consumers eschew sugary drinks. Per capita carbonated soft drink consumption declined to a 31-year low in the U.S. in 2016, according to Beverage-Digest, a trade publication. The market in North America fell to $76.4 billion last year from $78.3 billion in 2016, data from Euromontior International shows.

While soda may be eclipsed, the industry that’s hearing alarm bells is alcohol. Binge drinking rates declined in states with legal weed compared with states that allow only medical marijuana and those prohibiting any kind of pot, according to the note.

“We have consistently argued that cannabis and alcohol are substitute social lubricants,” Azer said.

Linky

[Smallsteps]

I live in one of the first states to legalize for recreational use and a pretty large amount although it may be impossible to accurately tally do NOT buy from the stores that are regulated and collect tax but instead from your average street dealer. That traffic has increased a great deal.
I find it ironic that our driving under the influence is now about 50/50 from pot and alcohol. The voters who approved this thought they were getting a huge windfall so the greedy state would not come after them but instead invited more problems into the state. Those consequences are never covered in these articles that to me are more about selling the idea to all.

[james.hendrickson]

Legalization is interesting from a sociological point of view.

One the one hand, there are some benefits. You get a reduction in the social problems that go along with illegal selling of marijuana (less violence related to drug trafficking disputes, fewer crimes associated with trying to hide the illegal revenue, etc.). In general all the illegal revenue now also gets taxed, which improves municipal finances and a growing cannabis sector can provide additional jobs.

There are substantial downsides to legalization. This also includes more addicts, higher mental health costs, increased costs related to marijuana related health conditions, etc.

Whats amazing about that article is how quickly the marijuana industry has grown. I'm in Portland, Oregon. After legalization, dispensaries started cropping up all over the state.

[Smallsteps]

"

You get a reduction in the social problems that go along with illegal selling of marijuana (less violence related to drug trafficking disputes, fewer crimes associated with trying to hide the illegal revenue, etc.). In general all the illegal revenue now also gets taxed, which improves municipal finances and a growing cannabis sector can provide additional jobs.

"

I really have NOT seen any of this crime has INCREASED as many dispensaries are broken into ... it is a cash only business ....as FEDERAL banking laws limits their ability to process debit or credit cards. or even deposit the cash. some are working on the bank issue but in the mean time a huge target is on those businesses for robbery. Still have the same traffickers in the mix as well.
So lots of cash on hand and a product that can be addictive. As i wrote in another post we had a dispensary employee killed last November by a 'customer" who was having a bad day and did not have valid ID and was turned away by the employee.
The additional jobs in my area listed on INDEED today is $11 an hour bud trimmers and packagers or store employee who was MURDERED made about $14.50 an hour. Not exactly the kind of jobs with a big future.

[snafu]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/11/politics/boehner-cannabis-company-board/index.html

Former House Speaker will soon be a spokesperson for pot!

[rennigade]

I find it ironic that our driving under the influence is now about 50/50 from pot and alcohol.

How is this ironic? If weed is legal then more people can smoke it and not worry about being thrown in a cage. If more people are smoking then more people are likely to be driving. Whats the irony in that?

Thankfully the liquid drug almost everyone consumes will remain legal. Those 80,000 bodies that pile up in the US every year due to the liquid drug will not get in the way of that sweet taste in my mouth! Heck I had some crown and a beer last night for dinner. Does that classify me as a drunk? If I smoke a joint im a pot head. Moving forward anyone that consumes alcohol is a drunk.

Gotta make penalties for drinking driving or being high on THC much harsher. A $10k fine and possible jail time but probably not isnt enough. Besides loss of license...higher fines, multiple years in jail, possibly having one of those breathalyzer things that start your car installed for life (each and every car purchased forever.) At least then the shame will stay with that drunk forever.

And...it doesnt surprise me that consumption of soda is on the decline. How many years have we heard about sugar being absolutely terrible for you? Its not a secret anymore...and the more people hear about how bad it is for you the more people will stop consuming it. It takes a long time to ingrain something in a group of people. This is why people still think weed is bad...thats all they know. Its been drilled into their heads for decades. Those same people will have a glass of wine (liquid drug) with dinner every single night. Change is difficult.

[amarowsky]

I think a huge problem is too many people in jail/prison for cannabis/drug related offenses that are not violence based.

I think it is unfair to remove someone from society, and then charge the public to pay for his/her massive expenses while being locked up for a private personal decision.

I truly don't understand how "arresting people for weed" benefits anyone in society, other than those who simply, "don't approve " of cannabis and stigmatize those that choose to use it. I don't believe this, moves the needle in any positive productive direction for anyone. Those in prison/jail can not contribute to taxes, their families, or society. And the public citizens are left holding the bag to have to pay fairly expensive prison costs (guards, food, healthcare, maintenance, etc...).

Even if you don't like it, you need to grow up. All you have to do is NOT smoke yourself. It's a waste of resources, discussion, and debate to try and keep a prohibition that ~50% of people want to go away and the other 50% either don't care or for some reason want to strip away something that over people choose to do with their lives...

The costs to support these 50 year old columns of thought and control are just too expensive and not productive enough to continue to dump money into. I can think of multiple core issues that deserve way more attention, discussion, and thought than this (infrastructure, preventative health care, financial literacy, education system, medical research, etc....)

This is a Non-problem, that is given way to much visibility.

*Edit Add* I should add is support legalization, even though I don't smoke. I'll be happy when I'm on the right side of history and this is behind us, just like alcohol prohibition. Maybe they should start targeting putting everyone in the world on anti-depressants, anti-psychotics, and prescription pain pills.

[rennigade]

I think a huge problem is too many people in jail/prison for cannabis/drug related offenses that are not violence based.

I think it is unfair to remove someone from society, and then charge the public to pay for his/her massive expenses while being locked up for a private personal decision.

I truly don't understand how "arresting people for weed" benefits anyone in society, other than those who simply, "don't approve " of cannabis. I don't believe this, moves the needle in any positive productive direction for anyone. Those in prison/jail can not contribute to taxes, their families, or society. And the public citizens are left holding the bag to have to pay fairly expensive prison costs (guards, food, healthcare, maintenance, etc...).

Even if you don't like it, you need to grow up. All you have to do is NOT smoke yourself. It's a waste of resources, discussion, and debate to try and keep a prohibition that ~50% of people want to go away and the other 50% either don't care or for some reason want to strip away something that over people choose to do with their lives...

The costs to support these old columns of thought and control are just too expensive and not productive enough to continue to dump money into. I can think of multiple core issues that deserve way more attention, discussion, and thought than this (infrastructure, preventative health care, financial literacy, education system, medical research, etc....)

This is a Non-problem, that is given way to much visibility.

In all fairness a LOT of jobs depend on keeping cannabis illegal...those are the people it benefits. Thats the dirty little secret that no one wants to talk about. Its disgusting and I dont support it...but thats the truth.

And like you said...society pays for someone to sit in a cage. They also pay when that person is released from jail. Much more difficult to find employment when you have a criminal history. If that person becomes a burden to society because they cant work...someone is going to be paying for it...hint hint...look in the mirror.

And no...we should not wipe everyones criminal record or stop prosecuting people for murder, arson, rape, etc etc so they can more easily get jobs.

[disneysteve]

Gotta make penalties for drinking driving or being high on THC much harsher.

I agree with you on this, but there's a problem. We have a quick and easy test to determine when someone is drunk. There is no test to determine if someone is high.

[rennigade]

I agree with you on this, but there's a problem. We have a quick and easy test to determine when someone is drunk. There is no test to determine if someone is high.

Thats true...as of now the testing for cannabis sucks. Apparently they can do a saliva test...but trace amounts can be detected 3+ days after consumption according to what I just read. Which basically means any lawyer can get someone off the hook...which isnt good.

[disneysteve]

Thats true...as of now the testing for cannabis sucks. Apparently they can do a saliva test...but trace amounts can be detected 3+ days after consumption according to what I just read. Which basically means any lawyer can get someone off the hook...which isnt good.

Yep, and urine or hair tests are worthless, especially for regular users, because you can test positive for 4 weeks or more. There's no science to my knowledge to correlate drug level with degree of impairment.

[amarowsky]

In all fairness a LOT of jobs depend on keeping cannabis illegal...those are the people it benefits. Thats the dirty little secret that no one wants to talk about. Its disgusting and I dont support it...but thats the truth.

.

Jobs are a terrible reason to keep something illegal that more than 50% of people support.... This is about as useful as keeping "typewriter repair people" around. Or at least they're adding similar value (merely talking about the non-violent drug offenders, as they are not a harm to anyone in society).

And like you said...society pays for someone to sit in a cage. They also pay when that person is released from jail. Much more difficult to find employment when you have a criminal history. If that person becomes a burden to society because they cant work...someone is going to be paying for it...hint hint...look in the mirror.
.

Reason alone to not make this illegal. Hell of a lot deaths from Cannabis, than the 80,000 explained earlier from Alcohol. As their is no LD-40(lethal dose) for cannabis that is functionally possible.... While I can agree with folks who merely, "don't like it, or the idea of it" but still support legalized alcohol sales and.... youre speaking as a hypocrite or insincere (make weak straw man arguments).

It's ok to be against it.... just be transparent in your thoughts. And quit letting cognitive dissonance leach into your decision and fill in the "missing logic". It's MUCH MUCH safer than alcohol, you just don't like it. If one was making a sincere argument against it, I can understand fighting against "legalization" but you have Very Very weak argument(s) against decriminalization (huge difference btw). <---- FYI not making this argument against Rennigade specifically, just in general.

When people oppose pot at this point, it seems insincere, or labored. Because the strongest arguments share the same correlations with alcohol, which is not only decriminalized, but also legalized. There are group (albiet fairly small) that can have late onset psychosis from smoking/eating certain high qty's of weed. But from the data I can tell, those mental issues that were dormant, were likely going to emerge organically. The cannabis was an unfortunate catalyst to the "x" happening. Thats of the strongest arguments i've heard, regarding negative pharmacology w/ this plant. (Seems like most of the negative stuff around this, is the "illegality" itself, and not the act).

And no...we should not wipe everyones criminal record or stop prosecuting people for murder, arson, rape, etc etc so they can more easily get jobs.

Not certain who asserted this. But I agree. While I have little issues with "non-violent drug offenses" being purged w/ the eventual decriminalization. I do not in any way support or condone any violent act crimes..... And they ought to be punished (and hopefully rehabilitated) prior to re-entry into society.

[ua_guy]

It seems the estimates have been pulled back a little compared to the original article (2018). As of July 2020, Forecasts project $30 Billion in sales annually by 2030 compared to the earlier estimates of $75 Billion.

Not that the industry isn't on fire. Sales are up 40% over last year.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/marijuana/sns-tft-marijuana-sales-predictions-2020-20200717-ecoy3zdx7nehxkfhgibmkjsqmm-story.html

Most of the arguments against it come down to the supposedly morally righteous not wanting other people to do weed or have access to it. But that's not really the point of a free country, is it.

[amarowsky]

It seems the estimates have been pulled back a little compared to the original article (2018). As of July 2020, Forecasts project $30 Billion in sales annually by 2030 compared to the earlier estimates of $75 Billion.


Most of the arguments against it come down to the supposedly morally righteous not wanting other people to do weed or have access to it. But that's not really the point of a free country, is it.

\

Hit the nail on the head... It's people's urge to control the actions of those around them. The epitome of "control" over freedom of others personal actions.

I'm not concerned with the sales numbers either. It was just wasteful use of resources to try and keep something like that illegal. This is simple simple economics.... I'll be glad to be on the right side of history when this 2nd prohibition is finally lifted (simple action to raise the tide in all harbors within the States).

[surfius]

I do not see anything wrong with the fact that the legalization of marijuana is happening in many States to this day, since everyone has their own choice and those who need it are no longer forced to face the problems of the law and the legality of acquiring what brings them pleasure. As a rule, cannabis and marijuana do not carry anything bad, since there is medical marijuana, and cannabis is used to produce CBD for Dogs and our other Pets. When used correctly, these are very useful products, so I keep a neutral position