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  • Americans Can’t Get Enough of the Stock Market

    Here is an article the community might find interesting.
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    Americans Can’t Get Enough of the Stock Market

    Households increased stockholdings to 41% of their total financial assets in April

    Americans are all in on the stock market.

    Individual investors are holding more stocks than ever before as major indexes climb to fresh highs. They are also upping the ante by borrowing to magnify their bets or increasingly buying on small dips in the market.

    Stockholdings among U.S. households increased to 41% of their total financial assets in April, the highest level on record. That is according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Federal Reserve data going back to 1952 that includes 401(k) retirement accounts. JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, who analyzed the data, attributes the elevated allocations to appreciating share prices alongside stock purchases.

    The enthusiasm for stocks comes as market volatility has been edging lower and the S&P 500 has hit 25 records this year, fueled by a stellar earnings season and the prospect of an economic recovery that is speedier than many predicted. Meanwhile, stimulus checks have fueled a record rise in household incomes, boosting spending and helping propel the recovery.

    ​​

































    In the coming week, the monthly jobs report and earnings results from companies like Uber Technologies Inc. will provide clues about the strength of the recovery.

    Millions of new brokerage accounts were created during the Covid-19 pandemic and some investors who first tried their hands at stock or options trading over the past year have stuck around, adding to their investments. Financial advisers and money managers said their clients have grown more comfortable holding stocks as they witnessed the powerful rally over the past year, with some even questioning why they need bonds in their portfolios with yields still so low.

    The steadily rising market—recently lifted by impressive earnings from companies like Facebook Inc. and Alphabet Inc. —has drawn even more investors in. Retail clients at Bank of America Corp. have bought stocks for nine consecutive weeks, while hedge funds and other big investors have recently fled the stock market, analysts at the bank said in an April 27 note.

    Damon White, a 44-year-old physician assistant based in Sewell, N.J., said he started learning about stocks and options through social media platforms like TikTok while he was furloughed from his job last year.


    ​​Damon White has recently poured money into stocks like Tesla and American Airlines.

    PHOTO: DAMON WHITE

    He is back at work but says he still frequently checks in on his investments, recently pouring thousands more into the market, particularly in stocks like Apple, Tesla Inc. and American Airlines Group Inc., bringing his total stockholdings to more than $400,000.

    “It was nerve-racking when you’re putting in a substantial amount of money,” Mr. White said. But, “if you have a quick finger, you’ll sell…and you’ll lose out in the long term.”

    He doesn’t hold any bonds and plans to keep putting money into stocks.

    Many individual investors haven’t been deterred by the market’s swoons. Data from research firm Vanda Research show that individual investors tend to buy more shares when the S&P 500 is down 1% on the day than when it is up by the same amount, and that their resolve to buy during selloffs has strengthened during the pandemic. Some have even borrowed to amplify their stock-market bets.

    David Sadkin, a partner at Bel Air Investment Advisors who oversees $4.6 billion for wealthy clients, said the share of their money that is sitting in the stock market has increased to about 65% from roughly 45% last year, while he has whittled down investments in bonds. As his bondholdings mature, he has gradually reinvested the money into stocks.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury note settled at 1.632% Friday, up from around 0.915%, where it started the year, but still a low level historically.

    “In order to achieve our clients’ goals, we need to take on more risk,” Mr. Sadkin said. “We intend to continue to reallocate into risk assets while interest rates stay this low.”

    Other investors have been even more aggressive. A survey by the American Association of Individual Investors showed that investors’ allocations to the stock market hit around a three-year high of 70% in March. And margin debt—or money that investors borrow to buy securities— stood at a record as of March, Financial Industry Regulatory Authority figures show.

    Randy Lee, a 31-year-old software engineer based in Lansing, Mich., said he was initially drawn to the quick thrills of options trading, witnessing his small investments roughly double or triple within hours.

    Now, he says he still plays in the options market but also holds “boring” stocks like Royal Caribbean Group and Kraft Heinz Co.
    ​​

    Randy Lee says he doubled contributions to his retirement account.

    PHOTO: RANDY LEE

    Jolted by the uncertainty of the pandemic, he also started stashing away more money in his retirement account. He doubled his biweekly contributions to the account and opened a Roth IRA account, which he has added to in recent weeks. Most of his holdings are in the stock market.

    “I just never had that much time to just sit at home and look at this stuff,” said Mr. Lee. “What better place to create money like everyone else than to start playing the stock market.”

    He is optimistic about stocks, particularly after seeing the tech behemoths report record profits last week. But he does worry about a market crash in the future and has bought some cryptocurrencies, which he views as a hedge against a downturn.

    He isn’t alone—the rising prices of everything from lumber to dogecoin to stocks has triggered worries about a market bubble. And to some analysts, the exuberance surrounding the stock market is flashing a warning sign.

    “Retail investors have made a lot of money on many things including equities over the past year. At some point, given how high their equity allocation is, the risk is they decide to get out and take profits,” said Mr. Panigirtzoglou, a managing director at JPMorgan. “That is effectively what happened before in 2000.”




    Write to Gunjan Banerji at Gunjan.Banerji@wsj.com

    Source: Wall Street Journal.
    james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
    202.468.6043

  • #2
    Great article that should serve as a big red flag. When everyone and their mother is suddenly playing the market, it’s time to start thinking about heading for the door. I remember the exact same phenomenon playing out before the crash in 98 (I think).

    I’ve been planning to trim our stock allocation when I received the inheritance I’ll be getting but I might actually start shifting it before then as that money might still be multiple months away.
    Steve

    * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
    * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
    * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by disneysteve View Post
      Great article that should serve as a big red flag. When everyone and their mother is suddenly playing the market, it’s time to start thinking about heading for the door. I remember the exact same phenomenon playing out before the crash in 98 (I think).

      I’ve been planning to trim our stock allocation when I received the inheritance I’ll be getting but I might actually start shifting it before then as that money might still be multiple months away.
      Same thought occurred to me when I was reading this.
      james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
      202.468.6043

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by disneysteve View Post
        Great article that should serve as a big red flag. When everyone and their mother is suddenly playing the market, it’s time to start thinking about heading for the door.
        I had the exact same thought -- this article is terrifying. Warren Buffet was quoted as saying "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” ...... Yeah, sounds about right....

        While now would definitely be a ripe time to pull some money out of the market, or move it elsewhere.... It simply doesn't make much sense to move it anywhere else yet. Cash would be wasteful, bonds aren't much better... My only other good option (or at least, the only one I'm interested in right now) would be another rental property, but we're not yet in a position (location, timing, or finances) to pull that trigger. So I'm just gonna pull down the bar & strap in for whatever ride is in store....

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        • #5
          Originally posted by kork13 View Post

          I had the exact same thought -- this article is terrifying. Warren Buffet was quoted as saying "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” .
          Lol. I was just coming on to say the same thing.
          Steve

          * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
          * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
          * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by kork13 View Post

            I had the exact same thought -- this article is terrifying. Warren Buffet was quoted as saying "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” ...... Yeah, sounds about right....

            While now would definitely be a ripe time to pull some money out of the market, or move it elsewhere.... It simply doesn't make much sense to move it anywhere else yet. Cash would be wasteful, bonds aren't much better... My only other good option (or at least, the only one I'm interested in right now) would be another rental property, but we're not yet in a position (location, timing, or finances) to pull that trigger. So I'm just gonna pull down the bar & strap in for whatever ride is in store....
            Likeminded thinking on the Buffett quote and that the article as a whole and the note on margin debt being at a record level are red flags. Stick to the plan.

            Alternate quote - "Hogs get fed, pigs get slaughtered". Pretty sure the Buffett quote is better .
            “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.”

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by srblanco7 View Post
              the note on margin debt being at a record level are red flags.
              For sure. So not only are a bunch of new people getting into the market, but people are borrowing more money than ever to invest in stocks.

              Scary, scary stuff. We've seen this movie before and we know how it turns out.
              Steve

              * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
              * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
              * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

                For sure. So not only are a bunch of new people getting into the market, but people are borrowing more money than ever to invest in stocks.

                Scary, scary stuff. We've seen this movie before and we know how it turns out.
                Yep - 2008 comes to mind.
                james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
                202.468.6043

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by kork13 View Post

                  I had the exact same thought -- this article is terrifying. Warren Buffet was quoted as saying "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” ...... Yeah, sounds about right....

                  While now would definitely be a ripe time to pull some money out of the market, or move it elsewhere.... It simply doesn't make much sense to move it anywhere else yet. Cash would be wasteful, bonds aren't much better... My only other good option (or at least, the only one I'm interested in right now) would be another rental property, but we're not yet in a position (location, timing, or finances) to pull that trigger. So I'm just gonna pull down the bar & strap in for whatever ride is in store....
                  No that's a terrible idea. Yeah okay be greedy and fearful. But if you pull out because of fear you will lose more than just having stayed invested. Pulling out doesn't make sense for anyone who isn't planning on retiring and wants more conservative. Pulling out just because is the wrong move.
                  LivingAlmostLarge Blog

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by LivingAlmostLarge View Post

                    No that's a terrible idea. Yeah okay be greedy and fearful. But if you pull out because of fear you will lose more than just having stayed invested. Pulling out doesn't make sense for anyone who isn't planning on retiring and wants more conservative. Pulling out just because is the wrong move.
                    The trouble is...nobody knows when and if the market will pull back.
                    james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
                    202.468.6043

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by james.hendrickson View Post

                      The trouble is...nobody knows when and if the market will pull back.
                      Right but if you are invested for say 20 more years or more does it matter? If you are 40 and won't retire until 65? Maybe if you are 55 and retiring or 60. but then one would argue that you should be in a portfolio that is age appropriate. If that is 60 stocks and 40 bonds is it wrong?
                      LivingAlmostLarge Blog

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by james.hendrickson View Post

                        The trouble is...nobody knows when and if the market will pull back.
                        oh my...

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by disneysteve View Post
                          Great article that should serve as a big red flag. When everyone and their mother is suddenly playing the market, it’s time to start thinking about heading for the door. I remember the exact same phenomenon playing out before the crash in 98 (I think).

                          I’ve been planning to trim our stock allocation when I received the inheritance I’ll be getting but I might actually start shifting it before then as that money might still be multiple months away.
                          You referenced 1998. If I’m not mistaken, it took the S&P 12 years to recover. Let that sobering thought sink in. Can you imagine a bear market where the markets decline in say late 2021 and you don’t get your money back until 2033?

                          Yet 4 decades out of the last 9, the S&P has lost value (inflation adjusted). We are due.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by TexasHusker View Post

                            You referenced 1998. If I’m not mistaken, it took the S&P 12 years to recover. Let that sobering thought sink in. Can you imagine a bear market where the markets decline in say late 2021 and you don’t get your money back until 2033?

                            Yet 4 decades out of the last 9, the S&P has lost value (inflation adjusted). We are due.
                            But then what happened after 1998? housing went on a wild tear and then crashed. There often times are no safe haven. Sometimes the safetest route just staying the course. I'd probably try shoveling in more money into the stock market if it crashed.
                            LivingAlmostLarge Blog

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by LivingAlmostLarge View Post

                              But then what happened after 1998? housing went on a wild tear and then crashed. There often times are no safe haven. Sometimes the safetest route just staying the course. I'd probably try shoveling in more money into the stock market if it crashed.
                              All bull markets are followed by bear markets, regardless of sector.

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