Will the market continue upward trend?

[myrdale]

I trust the industries, the CEO's, the CFO's, their actual words, as well as highly respected economists and their analysis. The media is just a vehicle to relay the information they speak. It's not fake. The stock market IS down, retailers ARE struggling, manufacturers ARE struggling. But you do you.

Let's be honest with each other...you can't rebut this because the facts aren't on your side. You want this little plan to work out, you want to be right, but that's not how it's going so far. If it works, we all win, yes? But that's not where this is headed in the moment, and it's more than fair to be critical of the haphazardness of the process, the uncertainty, and to be concerned for our US industries and our own US citizens who are being exposed to risk they didn't want or ask for. The current handling of the economy has been highly unpopular in polling--because it isn't producing the expected result.

The Dow Jones is up 7.5% for the month.

Year to date it is up more than 0.5%.

Overall it is down 5% from it's all time high.

Do you live in a world where you think the market only goes in one direction?

And as if I'd put any stock in polling.

[disneysteve]

And just because there are tariffs in place, doesn't mean we can't purchase the raw materials from China, refine them here, fabricate the components, then manufacture phones here.

Absolutely. We can assemble things there. We do plenty of that now. The auto industry is a perfect example. But many of the raw materials and components come from other countries because that's where they are most readily available.The tariffs can't change that. All the tariffs can do is force the prices to rise. The tariffs can't bring raw materials to the US that simply don't exist here. That's all I'm saying. The idea of bringing 100% of the manufacturing back to the US is total fantasy. It can't possibly be done.

[EasyMoney00]

Another good week for the s&p. One bite at a time.

[ua_guy]

This S&P? Interesting, it seemed to be cratering before there was any de-escalation of the fake trade war that damaged global markets. Only when Trump backpedaled did it start to recover.

It did close on a more positive note today. The Big Beautiful Bill that was going to explode the national deficit by trillions, make working people poor again, and leave programs unfunded, and tank markets, failed today.

Edit: The Us Government also lost its AAA credit rating today. oof.

[myrdale]

Edit: The Us Government also lost its AAA credit rating today. oof.

That is due to the national debt. That is a problem that has grown under every President since Bill Clinton (and it was only balanced then because of my favorite guy, Newt!)

[ua_guy]

That is due to the national debt. That is a problem that has grown under every President since Bill Clinton (and it was only balanced then because of my favorite guy, Newt!)

Adding trillions more with no way to pay for it is bad fiscal strategy.

[EasyMoney00]

Our accounts are back to their high. IRA is slightly down from high (no longer contribute from previous employer) but brokerage is up since buying on way down.

[disneysteve]

Our accounts are back to their high.

We are still about 4% off the post-election honeymoon high hit back in February, but certainly a lot better than we were. Let's hope it lasts.

[ua_guy]

The market is behaving irrationally, and it makes me glad I'm parked outside for now, except for the stuff I bought through the large dips. All of that stuff is up, obviously. Otherwise I'm basically still down or even... The market is still slightly off from its high but I've been earning interest through the dip. If I wanted back in, this would be the level platform on which to do it--but I'm not.

The market seems to have ignored the credit downgrade, which is worrisome. Not that I wish the market to go down, but it's indicative that maybe the market is absorbing more risk and other variables than how it has traditionally behaved. If the market is starting to move off of traditional indicators, then, what things is it basing itself on now? If everything is now priced in... if a company loses its shorts next quarter, do investors just mostly shrug it off, now?

An interesting read https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-...164730586.html

[myrdale]

Adding trillions more with no way to pay for it is bad fiscal strategy.

Every administration has added more than the previous. Trump will spend more than Biden. Who ever comes after Trump, R or D will spend even more. It is growing exponentially.

While the President may set the budget, Congress is the ones that actually approve it.

Until Congress passes an bill stating that we must operate on a balanced budget (with surplus to pay off debt) the national debt will continue to grow. Or the system will break.

Luckily the Department of Government Efficiency is working diligently to remove as much wasteful spending as they can.

[myrdale]

The market seems to have ignored the credit downgrade, which is worrisome.

The credit score is the equivalent of going from a 100% to a 98% score. Totally irrelevant.

[kork13]

The market seems to have ignored the credit downgrade, which is worrisome. Not that I wish the market to go down, but it's indicative that maybe the market is absorbing more risk and other variables than how it has traditionally behaved. If the market is starting to move off of traditional indicators, then, what things is it basing itself on now? If everything is now priced in... if a company loses its shorts next quarter, do investors just mostly shrug it off, now?

An interesting read https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-...164730586.html

Great article, thanks for sharing it.

I've had the same thoughts/concerns ... The credit downgrade was almost a non-event in the market, which is mind-blowing to me. Has the country just become so chaotic that we've become immune to successive hits?

This isn't to say that I've lost faith in the market or anything, and I continue to shovel nearly half of our income into our market investments. But it is definitely unnerving, knowing that the market isn't responding normally, and it's absorbing news with minimal impacts. Feels kinda like a rubber band that's stretching out but will snap back at some point & sting like a bugger.

[disneysteve]

Every administration has added more than the previous.

This isn't true. The increase in the debt has not been linear over time. On average, Republican administrations have increased the debt by more than Democratic administrations though there have absolutely been exceptions to that. Reagan leads the pack by far as the president to have increased the debt the most. Nobody since has even come close to that.

[myrdale]

This isn't true. The increase in the debt has not been linear over time. On average, Republican administrations have increased the debt by more than Democratic administrations though there have absolutely been exceptions to that. Reagan leads the pack by far as the president to have increased the debt the most. Nobody since has even come close to that.

*Recent administration. I was starting at Bush.

[ua_guy]

The credit score is the equivalent of going from a 100% to a 98% score. Totally irrelevant.

No, it's not. We're not discussing consumer credit.

We're discussing the global credit risk of the strongest/wealthiest/most powerful nation on the planet, and it's been downgraded. That has rippling effects, it devalues the dollar, and encourages foreign investment.

Are we great again, yet?