Will the market continue upward trend?

[EasyMoney00]

For better or worse, our economy is built on consumer spending. What do you think will happen to your retirement accounts if Americans suddenly become frugal? Millions of people will lose their jobs. Tens of thousands of stores will sit vacant.

Your thinking also ignores the fact that tariffs aren't just affecting the price of "crap". I went grocery shopping the other day. There was a big sign in the banana section explaining that bananas come from Columbia, Honduras, and Costa Rica, which are all subject to a 10% tariff so they were forced to raise the price by 10%. Lots of products can not be sourced in the US. They simply don't exist here. They must be imported. The prices of all of those things are affected by the tax hike. Good luck getting car repairs done. Lots of parts are made overseas. The cost of those is rising due to the tax hike, and the supply may be dwindling. Toilet paper got mentioned in another thread. Yes it's mainly produced in the US but a lot of the wood pulp used to make it comes from Canada and is now taxed higher under the new tariffs so necessities like that are going to increase in price right along with the consumer crap.

I agree with you that people buy too much junk but this isn't the way to fix that problem.

But, could more things be made here instead of our country relying on other countries to make them for us? The answer is yes.

Everyone saw how fun it was during covid how America had trouble getting certain things in stock from other countries. What has been done since to prevent that from happening again? Nothing. Because companies want slave labor creating things somewhere else. So as for jobs, hopefully more would be created here.

I know the only thing that matters is money. I love seeing our accounts grow. Myself and most people can't love the fact that our country relies heavily on other countries for a lot of products. It puts us in a vulnerable spot.

[disneysteve]

But, could more things be made here instead of our country relying on other countries to make them for us? The answer is yes.

The answer is absolutely not yes. That's what the pro-tariff people can't seem to grasp. Not everything exists in every country and there's no way to change that. We live in a global economy. Apple can't start making iPhones in California without raw materials from other countries. GM can't build cars with 100% US-sourced components. Not today. Not ever. About 0.01% of the world's banana supply is grown in the US. We can't possibly ramp that up enough to cover the US demand for bananas. We don't have the space or the climate to do so. If we want bananas, we have to import them from tropical areas.

Using tariffs very selectively to reduce direct competition with US companies can sometimes make sense but casting broad worldwide tariffs on everything and anything serves no purpose and is actually harmful to US consumers and destructive to US companies.

[EasyMoney00]

The answer is absolutely not yes. That's what the pro-tariff people can't seem to grasp. Not everything exists in every country and there's no way to change that. We live in a global economy. Apple can't start making iPhones in California without raw materials from other countries. GM can't build cars with 100% US-sourced components. Not today. Not ever. About 0.01% of the world's banana supply is grown in the US. We can't possibly ramp that up enough to cover the US demand for bananas. We don't have the space or the climate to do so. If we want bananas, we have to import them from tropical areas.

Using tariffs very selectively to reduce direct competition with US companies can sometimes make sense but casting broad worldwide tariffs on everything and anything serves no purpose and is actually harmful to US consumers and destructive to US companies.

That certainly stinks then that what we're currently producing is the only thing that we can produce moving forward. I assumed we could at the very least produce more medicines here, OTC products. I know steel used to be pretty big here but I guess that can't be done anymore. It's scary how fragile our society is then. Other countries could cripple us overnight if they wanted. We're not exactly the super power we keep hearing about.

[disneysteve]

That certainly stinks then that what we're currently producing is the only thing that we can produce moving forward. I assumed we could at the very least produce more medicines here, OTC products. I know steel used to be pretty big here but I guess that can't be done anymore. It's scary how fragile our society is then. Other countries could cripple us overnight if they wanted. We're not exactly the super power we keep hearing about.

I don't think that's the conclusion to be drawn here. It's a global economy, not just for us but for every other country, too. We all need to work together, not try and knock each other down. We all need each other. There are many things produced in the US that are shipped all over the world because other countries can't produce those things where they are. It works both ways. The whole "trade deficit" concept is flawed. It's never going to be an even playing field and they need to stop trying to make it one.

And yes, there are things we could produce more of domestically, but that would also mean paying considerably more for them. People already struggle to afford their medications. What happens when the cost rises 25 or 50 or 150% to make it here instead of in India? Even if a company like Apple decides to start building iPhones here, they will still need to source raw materials from overseas because they just don't exist on US soil. Plus are you ready to pay $2,000 or $3,000 for your next cell phone?

[ua_guy]

I've noticed the pro-tariff people that I know have become almost silent on the economy. They don't want to talk about it. They didn't imagine most of the fallout that is happening and honestly believed "tariffs" would have unfolded in a more calculated approach. But that's not where we are.

Producing everything in the US isn't feasible, nor does it abide by free market principles. The reason behind so much outsourcing is because of price competition and creating shareholder value, which is wealth and prosperity. Becoming isolationist is harmful to a free market because then you have the government shaping the market, forcing where things are made, and creating disadvantage in order to fulfill its own political goals. There aren't examples of isolationism where the economies have been anywhere as strong or as lucrative as the US economy. It's usually the opposite.

The US needs to hang on to some of its core industries. We need the ability to make weapons in wartime, we need to grow food, not just for our own needs, but food to trade with the world economy. Global economies generally create peace and good levels of interdependence. Notice the isolationist countries are typically the most violent and impoverished.

[kork13]

Global economies generally create peace and good levels of interdependence. Notice the isolationist countries are typically the most violent and impoverished.

Yes, this exactly. It's only partly in jest that people say we've never gone to war with a country sporting McD's golden arches. The higher number of touch points that one nation or group has with another (in sociology, called "collisions"), the closer & more collaborative the ties will be between them. Everything from business, trade, and tourism, to political dialogue, humanitarian assistance, and military cooperation. This is the foundation of the modern international system. It's a million little 'collisions' between nations that ultimately cement alliances & partnerships -- in my current job (interacting with my Japanese counterparts no less than weekly), we rely heavily on this concept to build our mutually beneficial partnership over time.

Wise & experienced statesmen understand this dynamic. Meme-ish political appointees & a shocking majority of business tycoons typically do not.

[EasyMoney00]

Deals are being made. Big one with EU, now talks of huge relief with China. It's going to be bigly.

[ua_guy]

Not much of a market bump from the UK trade "deal". Mostly because they aren't a big trading partner, and the "full and comprehensive deal" claimed by the US left more questions unanswered than solved. They played the future opportunity card and we folded for what was basically the status quo.

So goes the "art of the deal". The talks about the talks about the talks with China this weekend should be even less fruitful. Let's remind everyone, we came back to the table first. China won't lose face, they know what's up. It's not much of a trade war when mom says put your toys away unless you want to be grounded.

[EasyMoney00]

You eat an elephant one bite at a time.

[ua_guy]

You eat an elephant one bite at a time.

I'm not sure how that pertains to the "deal" we just reached with Britain.

[myrdale]

I'm not sure how that pertains to the "deal" we just reached with Britain.

Here is another bite, and it's a mouth full. Tariffs between The United States and China are being reduced.

https://www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/tariffs-china-trump-agree-slash-levies-duties-business-markets-bessent-rcna206193

[ua_guy]

Here is another bite, and it's a mouth full. Tariffs between The United States and China are being reduced.

https://www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/t...ent-rcna206193

Wow, what a bigly huge beautiful deal. The issue was kicked 90 days down the road. Until then, we've reduced the taxes levied in our totally self-imposed trade war with the rest of the world. I'm not saying it's a bad thing (tariff reduction), but it maintains uncertainty and absolutely zero participation trophies should be handed out here. It was a stupid and damaging idea to begin with.

[EasyMoney00]

Imagine being angry the market is trending up. Smh

[myrdale]

Wow, what a bigly huge beautiful deal. The issue was kicked 90 days down the road. Until then, we've reduced the taxes levied in our totally self-imposed trade war with the rest of the world. I'm not saying it's a bad thing (tariff reduction), but it maintains uncertainty and absolutely zero participation trophies should be handed out here. It was a stupid and damaging idea to begin with.

It makes sense to me. If other countries want to charge us tariffs then they should have to pay as well. It looks like good progress so far to me.