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    Warning - don't panic sell

    I normally don't panic. And strangely I didn't panic sell my own stuff. I panic sold my DK 1 and DK 2 529. I just started their 529 this year mostly because I decided we weren't saving enough in their ESA and their taxable accounts were pretty solid. So I put in 2/5/20 into VOO (Vanguard) $3k and then 3/5/20 $3k more for each kid. As it was going down in early march 2020 I bought more. Probably helped a bit. I should have bought more. I shut my eyes and sat tight initially

    But then the recovery happened and on 4/28/20 I sold their VOO at $5100 and decided what the hell. I'll move them to TIPS in their 529 until I feel like the market has bottomed. Then it went gangbusters and we missed out on the recovery. HUGE mistake. I should have sat tight and just ignored the market. Now I'm stuck trying to "time" the market as the right time to jump back in. No this is not their only investment.

    I actually stuck more in taxable for them into VOO and QQQ. I sold their VTI and cashed their gains and turned around and bought VOO and QQQ. I left their ESA invested in VOO and moved 100% from VTI. For myself personally I put more money in April 2020 about $50k into the market. I have held back the rest still trying to see.

    But lesson learned. NEVER panic sell again. I didn't panic for mine because I have no idea when I'll use the money so I am letting things ride out. But my kids education funds, its weird. I feel more nervous and stressed because there is a time frame. I know I have to have money in there in about 10 years. UGH. And as they get older I probably should move it into something more conservative.
    LivingAlmostLarge Blog

    #2
    I think the best thing I did when I opened DD's 529 was to put the money into an age-based portfolio. It is the equivalent of a target date retirement fund. It started out very aggressive and gradually became more conservative as she got older and closer to college age. I didn't have to think about it or make any decisions so I couldn't screw it up.

    If you've got 10+ years before you need that money, I'd consider going that route. Keep it simple and keep your hands off of it.
    Steve

    * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
    * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
    * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

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      #3
      What I've learned - the markets are too efficient to be well-timed! So I've eaten humble pie and jumped back in, in May, buying every week, instead of all at once although the Bogleheads think that we should jump back in 100%. But easing in and should be fully in soon. I won't be selling again until the need arises and that hopefully won't arise for another 20 years.

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        #4
        If you are buying individual stocks, then please study up on the company first before you buy or sell. You only "panic" because you don't really know much about the company, their finances, guidiance, or where majority of the revenue is coming from(and how that will be affected).

        If you don't know anything about the company, then you are a gain chaser, which makes you a terrible investo---gambler and should just stick to index funds.

        These are companies you are buying. Just because someone else sold or bought shouldn't affect your decision on how this company you bought can bring future returns to your investment. A stock is a piece of the company that you now own. It is not some arbitrary musical chair. You bought into the vision, the roadmap, the ceo, the company culture, and their ability to efficiently use capital to make more returns for the investor. It has nothing to do with stock goes up = yay, stock goes down = boo.


        Last edited by Singuy; 06-11-2020, 04:28 PM.

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          #5
          Originally posted by Scallywag View Post
          What I've learned - the markets are too efficient to be well-timed! So I've eaten humble pie and jumped back in, in May, buying every week, instead of all at once although the Bogleheads think that we should jump back in 100%. But easing in and should be fully in soon. I won't be selling again until the need arises and that hopefully won't arise for another 20 years.
          How do you know you weren't wrong? No guarantee this isn't a dead cat bounce. No guarantee you weren't the smart person who pulled out at the right time.
          LivingAlmostLarge Blog

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            #6
            Listened to a good podcast on this yesterday. Touched a lot on why the set it and forget it model works and why you shouldn't try to time the market - https://affordanything.com/257-how-t...dr-dan-ariely/

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              #7
              Originally posted by LivingAlmostLarge View Post

              How do you know you weren't wrong? No guarantee this isn't a dead cat bounce. No guarantee you weren't the smart person who pulled out at the right time.
              Well, even if it was a dead cat bounce, I don't care / it does not matter. This is money we - likely - won't need for 20 years, at least. So in the grand scheme of DCA-ing in, today or tomorrow or even next year won't matter. I'd still be up in 2040.

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                #8
                Is it ok to panic buy? I saw the futures were down, so I placed some orders for my taxable and roth accounts.

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                  #9
                  Originally posted by rennigade View Post
                  Is it ok to panic buy? I saw the futures were down, so I placed some orders for my taxable and roth accounts.
                  I missed my chance at a panic buy during the last sell off.
                  I could have quadrupled my money in two weeks.
                  Oh well....
                  Brian

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                    #10
                    Originally posted by rennigade View Post
                    Is it ok to panic buy?
                    That could be a problem if it's simply FOMO - fear of missing out. If you are doing your due diligence and researching what you're buying and have reason to believe that the price drops are overdone and don't reflect the fundamentals, there's nothing wrong with that at all.
                    Steve

                    * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                    * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                    * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Thats correct. DO YOUR RESEARCH. You'll make better decisions if you have better information.
                      james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
                      202.468.6043

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                        #12
                        Probably fine. Just be willing to invest money. I've been investing in DH's 401k $5k/month through this. I haven't dumped more because I"m just uncertain where we are. I'm also waiting before dumping more into the kids college. When that happens I'll dump another $6k each to help make up for my stupidity. UGh. but they are doing fine in QQQ and VOO so maybe it's for the best.
                        LivingAlmostLarge Blog

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