Fiverr Is My Newest Pick

[Like2Plan]

Yeah it was doing well.... The whole market has turned, it's like a roller coaster the last two weeks. But FVVR has come down from 190 to 130 in two days, but I cannot find any news. Anyone know what's going on? I was thinking to buy more as I have been waiting for it to go back to 115, but I don't think it will get there.

I think it was news of a promising vaccine that brought it down yesterday (people potentially going back to work in the next year or so). I don't know how that impacts the long term prospects, though.

[jeffmem]

Yeah it was doing well.... The whole market has turned, it's like a roller coaster the last two weeks. But FVVR has come down from 190 to 130 in two days, but I cannot find any news. Anyone know what's going on? I was thinking to buy more as I have been waiting for it to go back to 115, but I don't think it will get there.

[Singuy]

What a disgusting beat on earnings. Grew 88% YOY and raised guidance again. The only shining star today, lets be grateful about that.

[jeffmem]

AMD goes into a phase of lower margins due to new console orders, which is the largest in q3 , and especially large for the first year product. Console margins are the lowest in the industry, sitting probably at around 25-30%. Adding this into the mix and it's a massive amount too causes margins to drop slightly. This is a one time event as time continues there will be less consoles added to the mix while expanding more server CPUs.

Talking about margins, AMDs newest cpu just became the fastest in the world and AMD increased prices while paying less per wafer than Zen 2 from last year. They also got rid of the cooler. So all signs pointing to much higher margins this time next year, like 5-10% more on average.

Thank you for this. I was thinking along the same lines is that even though their margins are lower, they are going to be selling a ton of chips, so that hopefully will off set it.
Your knowledge of technology and what is going on here is incredible. And I also did see the news that one of AMDs chips set a record. 5-10% is good, slow but steady growth for 20-30 years will be great.

As for FVRR, makes me nervous how fast it has gone up the last month. A little bit of a drop is going to be a good thing for it for the long term, if it comes back around 115, I am going to buy more. I bought some when it was down around 109 and 110, but not enough. I think I have 160 shares with an average price around 94. I would like to have around 200-250 shares. That probably will not get me to a million, but without chats before if the company continually does well for 10-20 years or more and is the only leader than it may get me to a quarter or half a million. Either or will be a great investment. Even at the price now I can see their potential.

[JBinKC]

I continue to hold 500 shares. I also sold 3 contracts of Nov 20 (a little more than a week ago) out of the money put options at 110. (so I am willing to put 33K more money into the company at that strike price). I think this company is certainly part of a generational trend with regard to employment and again thank Singuy for pointing it out.

[Singuy]

Do you think Fvrr is still a buy at $150? I should have bought more at $110.

I think they need another blow out earning before any more run ups. At 5.5 billion valuation it's getting a little out of hand. Stock pretty much have gone parabolic since my recommendation which may not be very healthy. Earnings coming up soon so we shall see.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

Do you think Fvrr is still a buy at $150? I should have bought more at $110.

[Singuy]

Hey Singuy, got a question for you on AMD.... Doing some digging it seems AMDs margins are dwindling. They give all their margins to TSMC.... It seems to be getting worse too as they drop more production from GlobalFoundaries and give it to TSMC. How do you see this changing in the near future? You've mentioned that you expect the company to double in market capitalization but if margins continue like this, how can it..... I am wondering if Intel is still going to be the market leader.

AMD goes into a phase of lower margins due to new console orders, which is the largest in q3 , and especially large for the first year product. Console margins are the lowest in the industry, sitting probably at around 25-30%. Adding this into the mix and it's a massive amount too causes margins to drop slightly. This is a one time event as time continues there will be less consoles added to the mix while expanding more server CPUs.

Talking about margins, AMDs newest cpu just became the fastest in the world and AMD increased prices while paying less per wafer than Zen 2 from last year. They also got rid of the cooler. So all signs pointing to much higher margins this time next year, like 5-10% more on average.

[Singuy]

can't believe fivr still steadily moving up. lol

Only stock I bet picked that just goes up..lol

[~bs]

can't believe fivr still steadily moving up. lol

[jeffmem]

Hey Singuy, got a question for you on AMD.... Doing some digging it seems AMDs margins are dwindling. They give all their margins to TSMC.... It seems to be getting worse too as they drop more production from GlobalFoundaries and give it to TSMC. How do you see this changing in the near future? You've mentioned that you expect the company to double in market capitalization but if margins continue like this, how can it..... I am wondering if Intel is still going to be the market leader.

[Singuy]

Or if larger companies like google, amazon, msft sees the potential in the platform and future growth, it becomes a buyout candidate.

Possibility but I never look forward to buy outs as it disrupt my future guidance for the stock.

[~bs]

Thank you for this. I am amazed at your ability to see through these things. You have quite a bit of knowledge. I will definitely be putting more money in this company. I have used their website and have used services for designing websites and things like this, I am pleased, and am also thrilled to see them adding more services and attracting more service providers as well as customers. I also believe their revenue will increase over time, and as you say IF they can become the dominate platform that will be huge. I know they are available in a number of countries right now and want to expand.

Or if larger companies like google, amazon, msft sees the potential in the platform and future growth, it becomes a buyout candidate.

[jeffmem]

So the total addressable world wide market for freelancer economy is 1.5 trillion from 2014. The break down for North America, which accounts for 50% of TAM is as follows

Technology jobs $486 million
Admin Support - $110 million
Writing and translation - $109 million
Design & Multimedia - $83 million
Mobile - $71 million
Sales and Marketing - $49 million
Finance and Legal - $33 million

Currently Fiverr's yearly revenue is about 200 million. It's a company based out of Israel and just recently opened up in a few countries including the U.S which is mainly where growth is being expanded. So if Fiverr can capture just 1% in the next 3 years of the Tam, that's a revenue of 1.5 billion, which would x5 the stock easy as margins are high and the market is forward looking.

Now this gig economy was pre covid and from 2014. Also with a platform like Fiverr, you can unleash more TAM as there are new possibilities available to the world. Think how there were way less overall TAM in the taxi business or the hospitality business until Arbnb and Uber changed that, and added way more to the economy.

So if Fiverr becomes the dominant freelancing platform, then the sky is the limit and can even reach 100-300 billion dollar market cap. Which can 30-60x current share price.

But right now it'll be nice if it hits 1% of 2014 TAM which I think is a shoe in.

Thank you for this. I am amazed at your ability to see through these things. You have quite a bit of knowledge. I will definitely be putting more money in this company. I have used their website and have used services for designing websites and things like this, I am pleased, and am also thrilled to see them adding more services and attracting more service providers as well as customers. I also believe their revenue will increase over time, and as you say IF they can become the dominate platform that will be huge. I know they are available in a number of countries right now and want to expand.

[Singuy]

I was able to pick up more shares of FVRR between 106-110 over the last few days. I bought another 90 shares to the 50 I already had for a total of 140 shares. But my average went from $60/sh to $92/sh. I have 13k invested in it. Singuy, IF FVRR performs the way you believe it will, what stock price are we looking at over the next 5-10 years? From one of your posts, it would appear that you expect the price to triple from now if my math is right, so that would put it at around $300/hr after about 5 years? If so that puts my profit at around 30k. Your aim is 1M, I would love to get there, but I don't have so much cash to put in one company. If at 140 shares it gets me to 100,000 I think I would be rather happy as my retirement goal is at least 1M USD, and I am already 45 years old... To get 100,000 at 140 shares the stock price would need to exceed 700.... I'm not confident of that at this moment. 300, I can see.. It appears I need to buy at least another 10k in...

As for Apple and Tesla, with this market fall, I am not sure I really trust to get back in either one of them. But Tesla's battery announcement should be coming soon, it might go back up, I just fear that getting in for long term at this price with Tesla is very risky. Apple, after this fall, I feel a good value to buy back in may be around $70... haha. I bought Amazon at 1300, at that time I only bought 2 shares, it's now earned me nearly 4k before the panic sell the last few days. I sincerely wish I had purchased more of it a few years ago, but cash was limited.

So the total addressable world wide market for freelancer economy is 1.5 trillion from 2014. The break down for North America, which accounts for 50% of TAM is as follows

Technology jobs $486 million
Admin Support - $110 million
Writing and translation - $109 million
Design & Multimedia - $83 million
Mobile - $71 million
Sales and Marketing - $49 million
Finance and Legal - $33 million

Currently Fiverr's yearly revenue is about 200 million. It's a company based out of Israel and just recently opened up in a few countries including the U.S which is mainly where growth is being expanded. So if Fiverr can capture just 1% in the next 3 years of the Tam, that's a revenue of 1.5 billion, which would x5 the stock easy as margins are high and the market is forward looking.

Now this gig economy was pre covid and from 2014. Also with a platform like Fiverr, you can unleash more TAM as there are new possibilities available to the world. Think how there were way less overall TAM in the taxi business or the hospitality business until Arbnb and Uber changed that, and added way more to the economy.

So if Fiverr becomes the dominant freelancing platform, then the sky is the limit and can even reach 100-300 billion dollar market cap. Which can 30-60x current share price.

But right now it'll be nice if it hits 1% of 2014 TAM which I think is a shoe in.