Fiverr Is My Newest Pick

[LivingAlmostLarge]

Do you think there will be a pull back in any of the stocks you are holding, AMD, TSLA, SHOP, FVRR? How much have you invested in each and what's it worth? When do you see yourself selling?

[JBinKC]

Your knowledge of technology in general is phenomenal as I didn't know about that with regard to NVDA 's growth was attributable to data center applications. During the tech bubble of the 90s components were the rage but I realized that they were going to eventually become commoditized but unfortunately that was the impetus why I sold AAPL way too early in my portfolio. The only tech holdout I have owned for 2 decades is a reduced position in EQIX. Its certainly nice to know the amount of knowledge you hold in the tech sector. Its a huge asset to have IMO.

[Singuy]

Singuy I have to give you credit of your uncanny abilities in the technology sector. What I find most impressive is your AMD call in the crappy commoditized space known as semiconductors which I equate similar to a depreciating commodity without a daily known price of their products to monitor. I again thank you for your contributions here mainly to diversify my portfolio given I have minimal tech exposure.

My portfolio is usually overweight commodities because that is my area of competence and it requires a very different investing approach.

Thanks.

Semiconductor was a race to the bottom type business with margins being lower and lower. Look at MU and western digital, just terrible margins as things become cheaper and cheaper.

However what flipped the script is the explosion of the thirst for exoscale servers to power the giant megacaps. The return on their investment to support their growth makes purchasing expensive hardware from Intel, AMD, and Nvidia a no brainier. That's where the margins are so basically cutting edge hardware are now tied to trillion dollars companies. Back in the days, Nvidia was worth peanuts when their graphics card were only used for gamers. Then their value cap exploded due to datacenter use.

[disneysteve]

As well as you've done, I can guarantee you that if I decide to follow any of your suggestions, the stock will tank for sure. So I promise to save you from that fate.

[JBinKC]

Singuy I have to give you credit of your uncanny abilities in the technology sector. What I find most impressive is your AMD call in the crappy commoditized space known as semiconductors which I equate similar to a depreciating commodity without a daily known price of their products to monitor. I again thank you for your contributions here mainly to diversify my portfolio given I have minimal tech exposure.

My portfolio is usually overweight commodities because that is my area of competence and it requires a very different investing approach.

[Singuy]

Fiverr reported earnings, achieved profitably and grew 82%. Raise guide to be profitable for the rest of 2020. I hope those who bought is disgusted by the knock out earning and enjoy the ride to $200

[~bs]

Thanks for the advice. Bought 5er at 50, now sitting at $100.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

Guess I should be buying more AMD. I bought some but i haven't really gone all in. Shop. Wowza. Insane the trajectory. I thought they were expensive at $300 and obviously you did too or else you'd have bought more because man have they dusted every other stock and some people are saying they are going to burn amazon. I'm curious about how that will play out.

[Singuy]

I see. There are a lot of people who short who try to make news and use scare tactics to get you to sell because they don't want to be left holding the bag.

I am not sure how AMD is going to continue to grow, Intel is only down for about a year and will start to go up again, what happened to Intel recently, outside of Apple, has happened before, and it will only take them about a year to get their stuff together again. They are not out of the game. Fiverr definitely seems to be a winner and really appreciate your insight and conversation. It would be very nice someday to buy enough shares to make my first million, but the confidence to buy so many shares will be my hurdle...

AMD is actually poised to be one of the biggest chip makers of the 2020s. In their entire existence, they had process nodes being 1 generation behind Intel. They relied on architecture to be competitive.

The most recent conference call completely flipped the script. Intel is now 3 years behind TSMC and the gap is widening. Ice lake 10nm CPUs for datacenters that are "launching" by year end is a huge cluster F as its clock speed is abysmal. It is not even competitive vs their current generation CPUs which is already 1/2 the speed of AMD's. AMD Milan is on track, and 5nm is on track. Intel's CEO is contemplating outsource fabrication but they are will have a hard time getting wafers from TSMC as AMD has already locked them out. A recent Taiwanese news report just stated that AMD will DOUBLE the wafer capacity in 2021 from TSMC and become the largest partner using their chips, beating out Apple for the first time. This means revenue will DOUBLE in 2021 as AMD sees a path for this demand due to Intel's fumble.

Intel's fumble is so bad that datacenters are being forced to validate PCI Gen 4 on AMD, the first time ever where a new generation of PCI is validated on AMD. This is a huge deal as once validation is complete, they will just run with it and will see no advantages switching to Intel.

The gigantic share price drop of Intel is not a small set back. It is a turning point in which there's no roadmap for Intel capable of ever catching up. Many Fabs died due to not able to succeed in developing the next node, and looks like Intel has hit that roadblock as TSMC becomes the most advanced node in the world. I am about 95% confident AMD's share price will hit 200 dollars within 5 years as everything I said above is NOT even AMD's master plan. AMD's true master plan is scary for not only Intel, but Nvidia and ARM.

[Singuy]

when did you buy shop? I didn't buy it a long time ago dang. I have friends retiring from shop. that one they bought at $1

Bought only 210 shares at around 70 bucks. I didn't do any research on the company(heard maybe one conference call after the past 3 years) so my conviction was never strong. Perhaps I should have spent more time on SHOP as it is my first 10+ bagger...lol. The best performing child gets no love so they say.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

when did you buy shop? I didn't buy it a long time ago dang. I have friends retiring from shop. that one they bought at $1

[jeffmem]

Tesla is the only one very hard to figure out it's valuation because there's nothing else like it. I rely on smart people who build models to determine it's future value. Plenty of them exist on Tesla investor club forums. They have been pretty spot on with 95% accuracy so I trust what they say. The short sellers on the other hand is wrong about 95% of the time, so I don't even know why people put any weight on what they say.

When it comes to AMD and Fiverr it's easier to see where similar sectors are at. Intel and Nvidia had a valuation of 400 billion combined at the time AMD was worth 20 billion. So it's almost a no brainier and I had zero problem sinking 6 figures in.

Same with Fiverr at under a billion dollar valuation with the amount of web engagement and growth. The fact that their nearest competitor being upwork is almost valued the same is a huge green flag for me on Fiverr when they have 10x the app downloads.

I see. There are a lot of people who short who try to make news and use scare tactics to get you to sell because they don't want to be left holding the bag.

I am not sure how AMD is going to continue to grow, Intel is only down for about a year and will start to go up again, what happened to Intel recently, outside of Apple, has happened before, and it will only take them about a year to get their stuff together again. They are not out of the game. Fiverr definitely seems to be a winner and really appreciate your insight and conversation. It would be very nice someday to buy enough shares to make my first million, but the confidence to buy so many shares will be my hurdle...

[Singuy]

Tesla is the only one very hard to figure out it's valuation because there's nothing else like it. I rely on smart people who build models to determine it's future value. Plenty of them exist on Tesla investor club forums. They have been pretty spot on with 95% accuracy so I trust what they say. The short sellers on the other hand is wrong about 95% of the time, so I don't even know why people put any weight on what they say.

When it comes to AMD and Fiverr it's easier to see where similar sectors are at. Intel and Nvidia had a valuation of 400 billion combined at the time AMD was worth 20 billion. So it's almost a no brainier and I had zero problem sinking 6 figures in.

Same with Fiverr at under a billion dollar valuation with the amount of web engagement and growth. The fact that their nearest competitor being upwork is almost valued the same is a huge green flag for me on Fiverr when they have 10x the app downloads.

[jeffmem]

So you have fell into the sold low and buy high trap. Most people do because of human emotions. The day my parents was telling at me to liquidate my position was literally the last day of the drop. They felt like stock will go down to zero or something, yelling at me for gambling with my money and somehow it'll cost my marriage. Yes every trick was used in the book trying to get me to sell. If I sold, I would have missed out on 1.5 MILLION dollars worth of gains. I bring this up daily with the usual I told you so to my parents because human emotions are strong with it comes to seeing red.

So I have about 4 core stocks. SHOP, AMD, Fiverr, and TSLA. These 4 stocks make up 2.3 million dollars of my portfolio, with over 50% weighted in Tesla, and 30% in AMD. I also have some misc other stocks like Match which I have a 5x gain but the position is small.

I bought these stocks with only one goal, which is the likely chance that they will hit a million(okay maybe not Shop, just lucky with that one).

I put as much as I need in order for that stock to be worth a million to me some day. Fiverr I put in over 2k shares at 1.5 billion dollar valuation as I see it becoming a 12 billion dollar company. AMD I sunk 180k into with cost basis of 20 billion valuation because I see it becoming at least a 100 billion dollar company.

Well, I had worries just like what you said, I was thinking sell now, keep the cash and wait until it bottoms out next year and then invest all that cash in other companies, many people thought the same thing. That obviously did not happen. so now I am sitting on a pile of cash that is doing nothing. I am willing to wait to see what happens, but... yeah I lost out probably on a few hundred thousand in gains because I sold them.

I have no wheres near even a million, and I have spread out my risk between about 30 companies, some say too many, others say it is not enough. I do not trust myself enough to invest 25k in one company. It is very hard for me to have that trust because I cannot afford to lose that much. So I spread my risk. The winners much further outweigh the winners so I have done ok.

How do you determine that those companies will be at a valuation you predict? We can look at all the SEC 10k filings, charts, this and that, but I do not think those are a reliable way of estimating the valuation you have predicted, of course they help, but...

[Singuy]

So you have fell into the sold low and buy high trap. Most people do because of human emotions. The day my parents was telling at me to liquidate my position was literally the last day of the drop. They felt like stock will go down to zero or something, yelling at me for gambling with my money and somehow it'll cost my marriage. Yes every trick was used in the book trying to get me to sell. If I sold, I would have missed out on 1.5 MILLION dollars worth of gains. I bring this up daily with the usual I told you so to my parents because human emotions are strong with it comes to seeing red. Most people don't buy when stock drops because they think it will drop lower. Most people buy stock when it's higher because they think it'll go higher and miss out. Human greed at work.

So I have about 4 core stocks. SHOP, AMD, Fiverr, and TSLA. These 4 stocks make up 2.3 million dollars of my portfolio, with over 50% weighted in Tesla, and 30% in AMD. I also have some misc other stocks like Match which I have a 5x gain but the position is small.

I bought these stocks with only one goal, which is the likely chance that they will hit a million(okay maybe not Shop, just lucky with that one).

I put as much as I need in order for that stock to be worth a million to me some day. Fiverr I put in over 2k shares at 1.5 billion dollar valuation as I see it becoming a 12 billion dollar company. AMD I sunk 180k into with cost basis of 20 billion valuation because I see it becoming at least a 100 billion dollar company.