Fiverr Is My Newest Pick

[jeffmem]

So you have fell into the sold low and buy high trap. Most people do because of human emotions. The day my parents was telling at me to liquidate my position was literally the last day of the drop. They felt like stock will go down to zero or something, yelling at me for gambling with my money and somehow it'll cost my marriage. Yes every trick was used in the book trying to get me to sell. If I sold, I would have missed out on 1.5 MILLION dollars worth of gains. I bring this up daily with the usual I told you so to my parents because human emotions are strong with it comes to seeing red.

So I have about 4 core stocks. SHOP, AMD, Fiverr, and TSLA. These 4 stocks make up 2.3 million dollars of my portfolio, with over 50% weighted in Tesla, and 30% in AMD. I also have some misc other stocks like Match which I have a 5x gain but the position is small.

I bought these stocks with only one goal, which is the likely chance that they will hit a million(okay maybe not Shop, just lucky with that one).

I put as much as I need in order for that stock to be worth a million to me some day. Fiverr I put in over 2k shares at 1.5 billion dollar valuation as I see it becoming a 12 billion dollar company. AMD I sunk 180k into with cost basis of 20 billion valuation because I see it becoming at least a 100 billion dollar company.

Well, I had worries just like what you said, I was thinking sell now, keep the cash and wait until it bottoms out next year and then invest all that cash in other companies, many people thought the same thing. That obviously did not happen. so now I am sitting on a pile of cash that is doing nothing. I am willing to wait to see what happens, but... yeah I lost out probably on a few hundred thousand in gains because I sold them.

I have no wheres near even a million, and I have spread out my risk between about 30 companies, some say too many, others say it is not enough. I do not trust myself enough to invest 25k in one company. It is very hard for me to have that trust because I cannot afford to lose that much. So I spread my risk. The winners much further outweigh the winners so I have done ok.

How do you determine that those companies will be at a valuation you predict? We can look at all the SEC 10k filings, charts, this and that, but I do not think those are a reliable way of estimating the valuation you have predicted, of course they help, but...

[Singuy]

So you have fell into the sold low and buy high trap. Most people do because of human emotions. The day my parents was telling at me to liquidate my position was literally the last day of the drop. They felt like stock will go down to zero or something, yelling at me for gambling with my money and somehow it'll cost my marriage. Yes every trick was used in the book trying to get me to sell. If I sold, I would have missed out on 1.5 MILLION dollars worth of gains. I bring this up daily with the usual I told you so to my parents because human emotions are strong with it comes to seeing red. Most people don't buy when stock drops because they think it will drop lower. Most people buy stock when it's higher because they think it'll go higher and miss out. Human greed at work.

So I have about 4 core stocks. SHOP, AMD, Fiverr, and TSLA. These 4 stocks make up 2.3 million dollars of my portfolio, with over 50% weighted in Tesla, and 30% in AMD. I also have some misc other stocks like Match which I have a 5x gain but the position is small.

I bought these stocks with only one goal, which is the likely chance that they will hit a million(okay maybe not Shop, just lucky with that one).

I put as much as I need in order for that stock to be worth a million to me some day. Fiverr I put in over 2k shares at 1.5 billion dollar valuation as I see it becoming a 12 billion dollar company. AMD I sunk 180k into with cost basis of 20 billion valuation because I see it becoming at least a 100 billion dollar company.

[jeffmem]

I don't have any short term advice for you as I don't trade any of my holdings. I usually just buy if there's an opportunity instead of selling during those opportune times. You are overthinking the market way too much. True wealth is created by picking a few good growth companies, learn the ins and out to build your conviction, and hold them for a decade. The thought that there's some kind of ceiling to the price, or how you can just buy low here, and sell high here, is a fools errand. There are only a few days in the year where a really good stock rally and possible double. If you missed out, you missed out. That's the nature of things and the best way to ensure you never miss out is to stay in the market.

It's amazing how 2 weeks into the market crash, you hear everyone saying "man I should have sold" and then 2 months after the market crash, you hear people say "man I should have bought". It's all nonsense. Taking profit is the most costly endeavor for me and I'll never do it again until retirement. I look for 10 baggers, the next Amazon/Nflix/Apple. I don't let a doubling of the stock price, or a 30% gain tempt me. To me, that's the beginning.

I have to say your thinking and your logic is spot on. Sadly... In March, I was one of those people, but a little different. 1. I sold too late, took profit on many stocks, but lost much by not selling earlier, then... I regretted selling them as many of those companies are now worth more than they were in February before the crash. I am kicking myself. I have read some articles that say pick a percentage gain and then get out. While others are like you. Whatever the strategy I think is right depending on the person, but I see your perspective. I took cash thinking the market was going to continue to drop and that in Q4 or Q1 the market may hit bottom, that didn't happen and the market may not drop again like that, so I hold a lot of cash right now as I am waiting to see how things are going to go. I went ahead and bought AMD, TSLA and Apple, as I think long term at least two of these companies are going to grow. I may sell AMD at 100, as I am not quite sure how they go beyond that.

I am curious, how many stocks are in your portfolio? I have heard suggestions that you just keep buying as new opportunities come out. But it seems for you, you have what, maybe 10?

I am also looking for 10 baggers like you say Amazon, Netflix, etc. It is hard to find, I missed many in recent years because I thought why would people buy that, I was too naive and not educated enough about that particular industry.

I am also curious about your thoughts about this video and author and what he says, do you agree or disagree with him and why? It is about 45 minutes, not sure you will have time or willing or feel valuable. Frankly I think he may be right. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8lf...ature=youtu.be

[Singuy]

It seems I lost a lot of opportunities since I sold almost all stocks making a profit in March. Including MA, FB, TSLA, etc, I had many of them, but sold everything, took my profit and called it a day waiting until the end of this year to invest. I had no idea that the markets would take off like this especially in technology, I was stupid. I need to play catch up now, but the prices are just too high. Do think at this particular moment it would be foolish to invest in AMD? It is nearly $80 but the target is $100, good at this point to just invest to take profit at $20 a share and sell it? And TSLA at nearly $1500/sh, foolish to get in now? My concern is that Q4 may see a huge drop in the markets when profits for a lot of companies is going to be very bad due to the virus. I had planned to wait until end Q4 or early 2021 Q1 Q2 to buy stocks, but that seems too late, there may not be a drop now....

I don't have any short term advice for you as I don't trade any of my holdings. I usually just buy if there's an opportunity instead of selling during those opportune times. You are overthinking the market way too much. True wealth is created by picking a few good growth companies, learn the ins and out to build your conviction, and hold them for a decade. The thought that there's some kind of ceiling to the price, or how you can just buy low here, and sell high here, is a fools errand. There are only a few days in the year where a really good stock rally and possible double. If you missed out, you missed out. That's the nature of things and the best way to ensure you never miss out is to stay in the market.

It's amazing how 2 weeks into the market crash, you hear everyone saying "man I should have sold" and then 2 months after the market crash, you hear people say "man I should have bought". It's all nonsense. Taking profit is the most costly endeavor for me and I'll never do it again until retirement. I look for 10 baggers, the next Amazon/Nflix/Apple. I don't let a doubling of the stock price, or a 30% gain tempt me. To me, that's the beginning.

[jeffmem]

Yup still have over 2k shares of Fvrr, holding strong and long. Still have all them AMD and TSLA shares as well. My rule of thumb is, start thinking about taking profit when dividends are announced. I pick these for growths, not for dividends. I'll continue to hold with dividends IF there are no obvious competition.

AMD raised guidance with Intel completely dropping the ball on future processing nodes. This is a turning point in the industry and they are pricing it in for AMD. I waited 3 years for this moment, all the way back to where I posted "Long on AMD" thread that disappeared on this forum(think there was a complete wipe of new posts due to a hacking or something). I recommended AMD when it was 14 dollars a share back then and have put over 6 figures into the company. The day has finally come and price target of over 100 dollars is on the horizon.

It seems I lost a lot of opportunities since I sold almost all stocks making a profit in March. Including MA, FB, TSLA, etc, I had many of them, but sold everything, took my profit and called it a day waiting until the end of this year to invest. I had no idea that the markets would take off like this especially in technology, I was stupid. I need to play catch up now, but the prices are just too high. Do think at this particular moment it would be foolish to invest in AMD? It is nearly $80 but the target is $100, good at this point to just invest to take profit at $20 a share and sell it? And TSLA at nearly $1500/sh, foolish to get in now? My concern is that Q4 may see a huge drop in the markets when profits for a lot of companies is going to be very bad due to the virus. I had planned to wait until end Q4 or early 2021 Q1 Q2 to buy stocks, but that seems too late, there may not be a drop now....

[Singuy]

FVRR is a very strong secular pick IMO. I was wondering if Singuy is familiar with OSTK's Tzero initiative and his opinion if he has any. I fooilshly didn't pay attention and missed the huge opportunity..

As for my value investing style my portfolio has been very overweight materials (i.e. lumber and metals) and the retail theme of sporting goods (i.e guns/ammo camping biking etc).and those names have done very well also.

I don't invest into blockchain related companies as my understanding for them is poor. Also it seems very labor intensive to figure out a model for them. If you are interested in a company that do their due diligence and only invest into future tech, Ark Invest has a bunch of ETFs that are worth a look. They do the hardcore research for you and it's probably worth the cost ratio. Seems like their researching team is pretty good, picked a bunch of winners like AMD, Crisper, and Tesla.

[Singuy]

I gotta say thank you for sharing this! Thank you so much! I didn't even know FVRR until you mentioned it. I bought it at $62, I am up 48%, did not put a lot in it, but I wish I had. You're quite good on picking stocks. I wish I had rebought TSLA and MSFT after the crash in March. There are a few others that went balistic. I missed TSM and AMD, I think the price is too high to buy now, and expecting a market turn for the worst sooner or later. But I do think FVRR is going to be with us a long time. The Amazon type of stock. Will hold for awhile. Are you still holding it? Do you have any other recommendations for something up and coming? I missed the boat on quite a few from my own stupidity. Cheers mate!

Yup still have over 2k shares of Fvrr, holding strong and long. Still have all them AMD and TSLA shares as well. My rule of thumb is, start thinking about taking profit when dividends are announced. I pick these for growths, not for dividends. I'll continue to hold with dividends IF there are no obvious competition.

AMD raised guidance with Intel completely dropping the ball on future processing nodes. This is a turning point in the industry and they are pricing it in for AMD. I waited 3 years for this moment, all the way back to where I posted "Long on AMD" thread that disappeared on this forum(think there was a complete wipe of new posts due to a hacking or something). I recommended AMD when it was 14 dollars a share back then and have put over 6 figures into the company. The day has finally come and price target of over 100 dollars is on the horizon.

[JBinKC]

FVRR is a very strong secular pick IMO. I was wondering if Singuy is familiar with OSTK's Tzero initiative and his opinion if he has any. I fooilshly didn't pay attention and missed the huge opportunity..

As for my value investing style my portfolio has been very overweight materials (i.e. lumber and metals) and the retail theme of sporting goods (i.e guns/ammo camping biking etc).and those names have done very well also.

[jeffmem]

Guys, some update. People here know that I pitched AMD when it was 12-14 dollars a share. I pitched Tesla when it was between 180-350 dollars a share. My latest pick is Fiverr (FVRR) and I have pitched this in another thread when the stock price was 30 dollars.

Currently the company is at a 1.5 billion dollar valuation after their latest earnings report. Share price prior to earnings skyrocked 30% and then jumped even higher post earnings because they RAISED GUIDANCE despite of the pandemic. I have noted that Fiverr have gained 10 million new engagements to their website from March -> April. Their nearest competitor (upwork) also gained but at a much smaller pace.

Fiverr currently has 50 million/month engagements on their website, over 10 million downloads of their app from all platforms, and it's guided to grow 35%+ for the forseeable future. As benchmarks, Etsy has over 200million engagements per month while Ebay has over 700 million engagements per month.

The number of retail investors who own this stock is very SMALL. Robinhood, which is mainly used by millenials, tell you how many people in their entire database owns the stock. Fiverr is sitting at over 3k users. As for comparison, over 200k users own Tsla and over 200k users own AMD shares, which are the most popular millenial stocks. This tells me that the majority of millenials, those who use Fiverr, haven't even considered the stock as an investment(probably because company IPOed only a year ago).

The company is still losing money, so there's that risk. But at this rate of growth with such a small valuation, it can very easily be Etsy in a year or two(which means 3x your money) and could be on its way to Ebay (30x your money). This is a buy and hold stock. Do expect -10% in a given day because that's just how small cap companies with high volitality works. So far Fiverr, like my other picks are extremely resistant to this pandemic and I have already fully recovered pre crash. Currently I am up about 110% year to date, and 300% since I started investing 3 years ago. Still have all my shares of AMD and Tesla, and now Fiverr.

Disclaimer, I have about 55k in Fiverr stock, and have only started accumulating 3 weeks ago. This is not advice and you should invest according to your risk tolerance.

I gotta say thank you for sharing this! Thank you so much! I didn't even know FVRR until you mentioned it. I bought it at $62, I am up 48%, did not put a lot in it, but I wish I had. You're quite good on picking stocks. I wish I had rebought TSLA and MSFT after the crash in March. There are a few others that went balistic. I missed TSM and AMD, I think the price is too high to buy now, and expecting a market turn for the worst sooner or later. But I do think FVRR is going to be with us a long time. The Amazon type of stock. Will hold for awhile. Are you still holding it? Do you have any other recommendations for something up and coming? I missed the boat on quite a few from my own stupidity. Cheers mate!

[JBinKC]

Wow! the secondary offering only had a 1 day negative effect for the stock. This is very convincing we will see much higher prices.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

Interesting. i bought 200 shares at $50.

[Scallywag]

Bought from 30s into the 65s. Have 2k shares now. Will double the share number if this crash but I seriously doubt it. I have a feeling next earnings guidance will be raised again. Fiverr from many metrics on the web has gone viral. Can't wait to see May webtraffic numbers!

Have 201 shares now, bought from 30s to 65. I actually hope it crashes so that I can buy some more!

[Singuy]

Bought from 30s into the 65s. Have 2k shares now. Will double the share number if this crash but I seriously doubt it. I have a feeling next earnings guidance will be raised again. Fiverr from many metrics on the web has gone viral. Can't wait to see May webtraffic numbers!

[LivingAlmostLarge]

me too bought at $50 so we'll see.

[~bs]

I didnt even do any research. just limped in with $1000 on the original post. lol Think my buy price was around $50.