Stock market chatter

[disneysteve]

The United States has historically operated a free market economy, whereby the prices for goods and services are self-regulated by consumers

Except when it isn't, like farm subsidies. I'm sure there are various other examples, too, but nothing coming to mind right now. And of course there are all of the tariffs they keep imposing which messes with the prices.

[rennigade]

Im still waiting for people to chime in about how amazing gold is. Now is their chance. Minus the fact that they missed out on the longest bull run eva. But precious metals are awesome!

[TexasHusker]

Except when it isn't, like farm subsidies. I'm sure there are various other examples, too, but nothing coming to mind right now. And of course there are all of the tariffs they keep imposing which messes with the prices.

The US is moving toward a government-managed economy (socialist economy) and has been for decades.

[Like2Plan]

I don’t think that traders believe China is under control.

I'm not sure I agree with you on this point. It looks to me (a lay person) like China does have this virus under control. Also, looking at the S. Korea --it looks like the number of new cases have started to decrease. It looks like this virus can be contained with rigorous contact tracing and strict quarantine. Also, on the bright side of things it doesn't have to take months to get ahold of the situation.

Here is a link to a recent article in the JAMA Big Data Analytics, New Technology, and Proactive Testing https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2762689
which explores how Taiwan has managed to keep the number of SARS-CoV-2 cases low despite proximity to mainland China.

But, as a fellow trader I don't think it is under control anywhere else. Particularly troubling is the situation currently in Italy:

(I saw this from another board regarding Italy. This article was from Mar 7th 2020)

https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_mar ... resh_ce-cp

For non italian readers, via google translate
https://translate.google.com/translate? ... resh_ce-cp


In this county, I think the travel restrictions put in place early on have limited the number of cases we have right now, but I think we have squandered a huge opportunity to get ahead of this by not having the surveillance testing in place at the very beginning. We have a lot of catch up to do. I am not sure folks have wrapped their head around this, yet. I am not sure the US market has priced this in, yet.

[TexasHusker]

Im still waiting for people to chime in about how amazing gold is. Now is their chance. Minus the fact that they missed out on the longest bull run eva. But precious metals are awesome!

Long term investing in metals is the equivalent of using a broom handle as a baseball bat: It is a poor (and misunderstood) use of the instrument. The proper use of precious metals is as a trading/hedging instrument.

[TexasHusker]

I'm not sure I agree with you on this point. It looks to me (a lay person) like China does have this virus under control. Also, looking at the S. Korea --it looks like the number of new cases have started to decrease. It looks like this virus can be contained with rigorous contact tracing and strict quarantine. Also, on the bright side of things it doesn't have to take months to get ahold of the situation.

Here is a link to a recent article in the JAMA Big Data Analytics, New Technology, and Proactive Testing https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2762689
which explores how Taiwan has managed to keep the number of SARS-CoV-19 cases low despite proximity to mainland China.

But, as a fellow trader I don't think it is under control anywhere else. Particularly troubling is the situation currently in Italy:

(I saw this from another board regarding Italy. This article was from Mar 7th 2020)

https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_mar ... resh_ce-cp

For non italian readers, via google translate
https://translate.google.com/translate? ... resh_ce-cp


In this county, I think the travel restrictions put in place early on have limited the number of cases we have right now, but I think we have squandered a huge opportunity to get ahead of this by not having the surveillance testing in place at the very beginning. We have a lot of catch up to do. I am not sure folks have wrapped their head around this, yet. I am not sure the US market has priced this in, yet.

If you trust the Chinese, you might be right. I’ll check with some of the workers at Panda Express tonight at supper and get their take. BTW I love their corona chicken.

[TexasHusker]

Im not sure how this is "once in a lifetime" event? Wasnt the tech bubble much worse than this? What about the 2008-09 bubble? Maybe in a couple weeks/months this will be on par with those events, we'll see. Ill continue buying index funds. Id like to scoop up some american airlines stock but I prob wont.

It’s not a once in a lifetime event just yet, and might not turn out to be. But it’s possible.

[Singuy]

If you trust the Chinese, you might be right. I’ll check with some of the workers at Panda Express tonight at supper and get their take. BTW I love their corona chicken.

See you can't have a legitimate conversation with people like this. Is infectious rate higher outside of China? No. Is death rate higher outside of China? No. Is China lying their ass off according to TH? Yes. Because of gut feelings.

[TexasHusker]

See you can't have a legitimate conversation with people like this. Is infectious rate higher outside of China? No. Is death rate higher outside of China? No. Is China lying their ass off according to TH? Yes. Because of gut feelings.

I am not saying they are lying or they aren't. Their track record doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.

[Singuy]

I am not saying they are lying or they aren't. Their track record doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.

Who cares if their past track record doesn't inspire confidence or not. Look at what they say and compare it to the rest. It's not that hard to determine if they are lying or not. But to use blanket statements without any data behind it is the worst way to distinguish facts from fiction.


It's like those people who doesn't believe anything the scientists say because "you know they have been wrong before..so therefore they are always wrong and can't be trusted..."

[TexasHusker]

Who cares if their past track record doesn't inspire confidence or not. Look at what they say and compare it to the rest. It's not that hard to determine if they are lying or not. But to use blanket statements without any data behind it is the worst way to distinguish facts from fiction.


It's like those people who doesn't believe anything the scientists say because "you know they have been wrong before..so therefore they are always wrong and can't be trusted..."

I don't know that I used any blanket statements. I was merely raising the point that you must believe the Chinese to draw much conclusion as to their handling of CV19. Many do not. Me personally, I don't know that they are lying and couldn't care less. It will work itself out, whether or not they are forthcoming.

[Like2Plan]

If you trust the Chinese, you might be right. I’ll check with some of the workers at Panda Express tonight at supper and get their take. BTW I love their corona chicken.

I don't think folks are prepared to take the tough medicine first (which will most likely will take some personal sacrifice) in order to get a grip on the situation. I don't think this has to impact our economy long term. The underlying fundamentals that have been favorable to the economy are still in place. But, if this virus takes off and starts to overwhelm our health care we are going to have even tougher medicine to get things back on track.

Right now we don't know how to evaluate the market because we don't know the extent of the situation. Frankly, I am a little disappointed that the surveillance that tipped us off that covid-19 was being spread through the (Seattle) community was an unusually high amount of deaths in a nursing home.

"In a typical month, between three and seven residents die of various causes, he said. The nursing home has no information yet on autopsy results that will determine whether the 11 additional residents who died there were infected with coronavirus, he said.
Killian said that in all, 26 residents had died since Feb. 19, the date that the first patient was hospitalized who was later determined to have COVID-19. Of 15 nursing home patients who have died in hospitals during the outbreak, 13 tested positive, he said."

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation...navirus-deaths

[bjl584]

I traditionally invest on regular monthly intervals no matter what is going on with the markets.

That being said, as I've said in a few other threads, I am keeping an eye on a few individual companies.
A lot of stocks are beaten down and are starting to look like screaming deals.

[cypher1]

I traditionally invest on regular monthly intervals no matter what is going on with the markets.

That being said, as I've said in a few other threads, I am keeping an eye on a few individual companies.
A lot of stocks are beaten down and are starting to look like screaming deals.

Agreed. Although, "50% off!" (Better Call Saul reference) on some of these travel stocks. I don't see myself purchasing individual stocks regularly, but thought I'd dip my toe and bought some American Airlines and Spirit yesterday to sit on.

[disneysteve]

Agreed. Although, "50% off!" (Better Call Saul reference) on some of these travel stocks. I don't see myself purchasing individual stocks regularly, but thought I'd dip my toe and bought some American Airlines and Spirit yesterday to sit on.

I bought American yesterday. Royal Caribbean is next on my watch list.