Stock market chatter

[disneysteve]

So tomorrow at least, we will get some actual data (unemployment and new jobs report). It will be nice to reconnect to hard data. Right now we are in a whirlwind of complete uncertainty with CV19. There are no predictive models for this situation.

A lot of the market’s recent gyrations haven’t really been based on fundamentals though. Job data has been good. Folks don’t care about that right now.

Corporate earnings are going to be a bigger issue, and they won’t be good. Airlines, cruise lines, oil companies, hotels, casinos, entertainment companies, etc. are all getting hammered.

[TexasHusker]

A lot of the market’s recent gyrations haven’t really been based on fundamentals though. Job data has been good. Folks don’t care about that right now.

Corporate earnings are going to be a bigger issue, and they won’t be good. Airlines, cruise lines, oil companies, hotels, casinos, entertainment companies, etc. are all getting hammered.

Exactly. Right now all we care about is the virus. More data - even if it is “bad”, will be a welcome sight to investors.

[rennigade]

Its over. WHO finally declared this a pandemic. Get ready for the free fall.

[TexasHusker]

Its over. WHO finally declared this a pandemic. Get ready for the free fall.

Seems like the talking heads are calling for the bottom to be in the 2400 S&P range so there’s a big haircut yet ahead. That would be in the Christmas Eve 2018 range. Santa was a bear that day.

[rennigade]

Seems like the talking heads are calling for the bottom to be in the 2400 S&P range so there’s a big haircut yet ahead. That would be in the Christmas Eve 2018 range. Santa was a bear that day.

Thats quite a drop, but does seem very possible. Like DS said...when most corporations miss their earnings for the quarter, its going to be ugly.

[Like2Plan]

Personally, I think there is a limit on the damage that will be done by covid 19. I don't know if it will be a couple of tough months (if we can immediately get control of the situation) or a little while longer. The good news is folks are not becoming infected and turning into zombies, so I don't see this as a permanent situation with no end in sight.

[TexasHusker]

Personally, I think there is a limit on the damage that will be done by covid 19. I don't know if it will be a couple of tough months (if we can immediately get control of the situation) or a little while longer. The good news is folks are not becoming infected and turning into zombies, so I don't see this as a permanent situation with no end in sight.

This whole thing is being overblown by 1000 times. There are more people killed in auto accidents per day in the world than the entirety of of all CV19 deaths to date. When are we going to cancel driving?

[disneysteve]

This whole thing is being overblown by 1000 times. There are more people killed in auto accidents per day in the world than the entirety of of all CV19 deaths to date. When are we going to cancel driving?

Obviously, those are two entirely different things so I hope you're just being sarcastic. You can't compare an infectious disease to accidents. We could stop all driving in the world for a month and when it resumed again, there would be just as many accidents. With CV19, though, if we could somehow quarantine the entire population for a month, the disease would all but disappear from existence.

As a physician, I'll admit I'm a little surprised by the extent of the response, but with a brand new disease with no vaccine or specific treatment, a contagion rate about double the flu, and a death rate about 10 times the flu, I see nothing wrong with an abundance of caution.

[TexasHusker]

Obviously, those are two entirely different things so I hope you're just being sarcastic. You can't compare an infectious disease to accidents. We could stop all driving in the world for a month and when it resumed again, there would be just as many accidents. With CV19, though, if we could somehow quarantine the entire population for a month, the disease would all but disappear from existence.

As a physician, I'll admit I'm a little surprised by the extent of the response, but with a brand new disease with no vaccine or specific treatment, a contagion rate about double the flu, and a death rate about 10 times the flu, I see nothing wrong with an abundance of caution.

So we are going to shut down an economy to prevent a virus from spreading? What virus have we ever kept from spreading to date? I caught a cold in December. Darndest thing - that virus is still around and we don't even have an adequate treatment for it - just the symptoms!

We are losing 750,000 people per year to mosquito bites. Why aren't we making it illegal worldwide to go outside of our homes where we might be bitten?

[disneysteve]

So we are going to shut down an economy to prevent a virus from spreading? What virus have we ever kept from spreading to date? I caught a cold in December. Darndest thing - that virus is still around and we don't even have an adequate treatment for it - just the symptoms!

We are losing 750,000 people per year to mosquito bites. Why aren't we making it illegal worldwide to go outside of our homes where we might be bitten?

So should we ignore it and just let the chips fall as they may?

I don't think people should be panicking and hoarding Lysol and toilet paper, but I also don't think we should disregard science. Contact avoidance is an effective means of reducing the spread of the disease. If that means some cruises and music festivals get cancelled and Broadway shows miss some performances, casino buffets close, and kids have to do online classes for a few weeks, so be it.

[TexasHusker]

I think we should mostly ignore it like we do other viruses and move on down the road. We are spending $ billions to thwart a perceived threat from CV, but we won’t spend $1 billion to build a border wall to prevent us from an actual threat.

This country has some really weird priorities.

[Like2Plan]

So we are going to shut down an economy to prevent a virus from spreading? What virus have we ever kept from spreading to date? I caught a cold in December. Darndest thing - that virus is still around and we don't even have an adequate treatment for it - just the symptoms!

I don't think anyone suggests that they are going to stop the virus. But, the goal is to slow down the progression so that our health care is not overwhelmed like it was in Wuhan and now in Italy. The estimates that I have seen is that on average each case causes 2 more. It takes a few days for the case to develop--the estimates I have seen is a doubling about every 6 days with no mitigation. The majority of the cases are not severe, but it is that small percentage of cases that must be addressed. And, if you look at how long it takes for some of the folks who are the sickest to resolve--I've seen estimates of 6 weeks--that is a long time when there is a doubling of cases each week.

If by your actions you can do something that prevents just 1 case, that makes a difference over time.

But, I don't believe this is going to last forever. We will adjust--and hopefully we will get a vaccine.

[disneysteve]

I think we should mostly ignore it like we do other viruses and move on down the road. We are spending $ billions to thwart a perceived threat from CV, but we won’t spend $1 billion to build a border wall to prevent us from an actual threat.

This country has some really weird priorities.

I’m not about to debate science vs xenophobia so I’ll pass on that discussion.

This thread is supposed to be about the stock market anyway.

[TexasHusker]

So let’s play “where’s the bottom” on the S&P. What will it go down to before it levels?

I am thinking we have a 2-day flash crash where the S&P plunges to 1800. The ol’ scorch the earth, river of blood on Wall Street deal. After that, it will see saw on an uptrend and possibly even end the year where we are at right now.

[kork13]

So let’s play “where’s the bottom” on the S&P. What will it go down to before it levels?

I am thinking we have a 2-day flash crash where the S&P plunges to 1800. The ol’ scorch the earth, river of blood on Wall Street deal. After that, it will see saw on an uptrend and possibly even end the year where we are at right now.

I don't think a flash crash will happen, much less hold. Some more RBDs? Sure. But I foresee a volatile seesaw over the next month down to around 2300-2400, then as the weather warms & everyone continues to emphasize prevention, infection/death rates will slow to a trickle. At that point, markets will fitfully climb back up to 2800-2900 by year's end. Profits will suffer this/next quarter, but fundamentals are still sound and once the panic is past, the market should largely recover.