Individual Stock Picking Results After 2.5 Years

[Scallywag]

Singguy, when you say TSLA "in the thousands" in about 7 years, what exactly are you basing that on? Chinese market? Also, by "thousands", do you mean over $2000? Just curious. Thanks!

[Singuy]

Singguy, when you say TSLA "in the thousands" in about 7 years, what exactly are you basing that on? Chinese market? Also, by "thousands", do you mean over $2000? Just curious. Thanks!

Well Tesla is complicated. It's not just one thing so I actually expect their auto sales to be dwarfed by energy sales. Software sales?..another revenue stream.

So basically I expect their auto sales to keep the lights on while they continue to pioneer better battery tech and solar roof installations. Autonomous revenue is a huge potential, and a good portion of that 2-4k price target will need autonomous. Just for the time being, their battery scalability(which will soon be announced during battery investor day on how to ramp to 2 terawatt) will give a sense on how everything will play out.

My hunch is that automakers will eventually source from Tesla for battery, or just concede and become a thing of the past. Their best engineers out of Porsche can't make a car that can break 250 miles worth of range, while Tesla is on the cusp of offering 400 miles+ cars. Other manufactures can probably hit 300 miles worth of range but will do it while compromising performance and size. And this is pretty much the best they can do, Porsche vs Cybertruck. A slick sports car by the minds of the best German engineers ended up with a 201miles EPA rated range while a large triangle block of heavy machinery at 1.5x the size from Tesla will crack 500 miles plus at 1/3 of the price.

And lets not even talk about the software advantage. Tesla already has the ability to unlock horsepower and autonomous driving if you pony up cash while giving you everything else for free. My car just turned into a smart home 3 days ago with the voice command update.

So lots of upside for Tesla and from a growth stand point it's still a baby. The biggest threat is behind it...which was logistic of scalability which was very cash bleeding. Now they can build a gigafactory in 10 months because that's just how fast this company can improve. If you ever want to see a company with zero red tape due to bureaucracy at work, study up on Tesla. Their pace of innovation is relentless due to this.

[Singuy]

BOOM, just like that I have reached 1 million!

[cypher1]

BOOM, just like that I have reached 1 million!

Congrats!

[james.hendrickson]

Currently I have a 256k gain on 424k invested. This calculated return is 60%, but actual return is of course much higher since I did not start day one with over 400k of investable funds. We had a taxable account savings rate goal of 65%/year and have met it, which is about 180k-200k/year toward taxable accounts. I have learned a lot and spend almost 3hrs a day doing research on my biggest holdings. I am a buy and hold kind of guy. Most manipulation I have done has cost me returns, up to 50% returns in fact so I stop manipulating stocks. I also don't use margins or play with options. I think from this point on I'll just add to more ETFs and minor amount of money toward my bigger holdings every month vs what I have been doing the past 2.5 years.

Individual stocks Portfolio from heavy to lightest. AMD+TSLA accounts for 80% of this portfolio.

AMD
TSLA
SHOP
VTI ETF
MTCH
AMZN
BZUN
ATVI
DIS

Dang Singuy, thats really good.

[Scallywag]

BOOM, just like that I have reached 1 million!

Congratulations on the million !!!! And thank you for a detailed write up on TSLA. I sold 100 shares at $213, then repurchased it at $313 (exactly a $100 more per share), sold that at $327 (stupid, stupid, stupid), and purchased it all back at $410. Will hang on to it now!

Aside from TSLA & AMD, could you share what else do you hold? Also, where can I find this info as I work on building my portfolio.

Now that America has assassinated Qaseem Suleimani, i expect the markets to react, and it may be time to buy!

[Singuy]

Congratulations on the million !!!! And thank you for a detailed write up on TSLA. I sold 100 shares at $213, then repurchased it at $313 (exactly a $100 more per share), sold that at $327 (stupid, stupid, stupid), and purchased it all back at $410. Will hang on to it now!

Aside from TSLA & AMD, could you share what else do you hold? Also, where can I find this info as I work on building my portfolio.

Now that America has assassinated Qaseem Suleimani, i expect the markets to react, and it may be time to buy!

Everything I hold is pretty much spelled out in this thread. I however only do research on TSLA and AMD and barely care about all the other holdings. Great research for AMD includes Adoredtv on youtube and also the AMD stock subreddit. TSLA research is plentiful by reading the Tesla Investor Club on Tesla Motor Club.

I currently have no plans on taking profit as Trump's tax law is of no benefit if I make beyond 315k a year as a household. That and I see TSLA and AMD having the potential to grow more. AMD however has a ceiling on growth, which is about 120-150 billion dollar market cap or so which puts it at 50% of Intel(and see Intel marketcap dropping). So this means one should NOT expect AMD to be a 300 dollar stock one day. $150 is reaching its max potential just due to the calculated TAM(if Intel managed only 200+ billion market cap with almost no competition, it's unreasonable to think AMD will surpass Intel in market cap).

TSLA however has a ridiculously large TAM. Grabbing a hold of that requires mountain moving efforts but the TAM is there. From auto, to energy and to mass transport, the TAM is in the multi trillions. Of course Tesla needs to dip their toes in a major way into energy creation (solar roof, energy storage), energy consumption (larger than 2% auto share or become a drive train supplier for other big auto), and autonomous transportation.

Never in the history of any company where one company tackles a multi trillion dollar TAM. This disruption will be world changing, causing all sorts of chaos. Millions of jobs will be lost. Tesla is changing the fundamental way of energy extraction and consumption. Just think of all the frackers and oil drillers, the semi drivers that goes to the hundreds of thousands of gas stations weekly, and the hundreds of thousands of gas stations. Think of all the supply chain manufactures of all the car parts of the past like mufflers/gaskets/transmissions/etc. It took 4 guys 8hrs to install solar on my roof. It's just a 1 time installation which freed me from ever going to the gas station because I now pump my own energy that powers everything I own including transportation. Imagine if the entire world went that direction because it's cheaper on people's wallet. Imagine if new houses will have solar roof installed because it's not really that much more. Imagine the Tesla that cost 20k or less. There's a reason Musk supports Yang because it's going to be pretty nasty. The efficiency of extracting/delivering/ and consumption of energy will blow fossil fuel out of the water. Why would you need a hundreds of thousands of people being paid to deliver energy to your car when you can just get it from your roof or any power line?

[LivingAlmostLarge]

congrats! Maybe I should follow you.

[MaryKay]

This was an interesting and informative thread, but just let me say....like anything in this world, it takes money to make money and poor (average) people like me aren't able to rake in the dough....no matter what advice is given. I congratulate you, Singuy, on your accomplishments and hope you continue to do well.

As for your analysis on energy-saving, Singuy, that's great for you because you have the means to make that happen. Again...all it takes is money. These are all good ideas for energy efficiency, BUT, this country will never succumb to letting the oil and gas industry go by way of the dodo. This country is obsessed with ripping the little guy off while they make huge profits for their investors. Why do you think that's why Trump kisses Saudi's butt? It's always been about oil.

[Singuy]

This was an interesting and informative thread, but just let me say....like anything in this world, it takes money to make money and poor (average) people like me aren't able to rake in the dough....no matter what advice is given. I congratulate you, Singuy, on your accomplishments and hope you continue to do well.

As for your analysis on energy-saving, Singuy, that's great for you because you have the means to make that happen. Again...all it takes is money. These are all good ideas for energy efficiency, BUT, this country will never succumb to letting the oil and gas industry go by way of the dodo. This country is obsessed with ripping the little guy off while they make huge profits for their investors. Why do you think that's why Trump kisses Saudi's butt? It's always been about oil.

Everything can be snowballed. Sure someone making more starts with a larger snowball and can snowball faster, but compounding growth is just math, it doesn't discriminate.

And snowballing doesn't start from the minute you make money, it can start for you as a child. Parents leading by example, teaching their kids the value of money, how compounding works, and how the savings rate % is very important no matter the income.

For example, my parent's saving rate was 50% making min wage in the early 1990s...lets just say none of my toys were new, all dumpster dived or garage sales, and I never felt air conditioner under their roof until I was 16 in Florida. They snowballed never seeing more than 10 dollars/hr in the early years. But the high savings rate gave them the opportunity to buy a business, quadrupling their income. Then the massive savings rate from that income lead them to invest in real estate, and now are worth 2.5 million. My parents barely knows how to speak English. Their education level equivalence due to their inability to manipulate the American language is no better than a 5 year old.

Parents also need to instill the lifetime of concern into the child. A high school student SHOULD have a path lined out, and execute towards that path as best to their abilities. This doesn't necessarily mean college. I had a crazy guide on how to reach a million by working at MCDs by 40yo on this forum which involves no college but must start in the teens and living lean.

So yes while it's true people with more money can take crazy risk and make more money..but anyone can get to that position in some way or another(perhaps not at that scale but any scale is better than zero hope).

Planning and execution is a life time endeavor. It's much harder to turn things around once you establish families in which people will usually have a difficult time keeping up vs turning things around. So setting an excellent foundation prior to this is key.

[MaryKay]

Everything can be snowballed. Sure someone making more starts with a larger snowball and can snowball faster, but compounding growth is just math, it doesn't discriminate.

And snowballing doesn't start from the minute you make money, it can start for you as a child. Parents leading by example, teaching their kids the value of money, how compounding works, and how the savings rate % is very important no matter the income.

For example, my parent's saving rate was 50% making min wage in the early 1990s...lets just say none of my toys were new, all dumpster dived or garage sales, and I never felt air conditioner under their roof until I was 16 in Florida. They snowballed never seeing more than 10 dollars/hr in the early years. But the high savings rate gave them the opportunity to buy a business, quadrupling their income. Then the massive savings rate from that income lead them to invest in real estate, and now are worth 2.5 million. My parents barely knows how to speak English. Their education level equivalence due to their inability to manipulate the American language is no better than a 5 year old.

Parents also need to instill the lifetime of concern into the child. A high school student SHOULD have a path lined out, and execute towards that path as best to their abilities. This doesn't necessarily mean college. I had a crazy guide on how to reach a million by working at MCDs by 40yo on this forum which involves no college but must start in the teens and living lean.

So yes while it's true people with more money can take crazy risk and make more money..but anyone can get to that position in some way or another(perhaps not at that scale but any scale is better than zero hope).

Planning and execution is a life time endeavor. It's much harder to turn things around once you establish families in which people will usually have a difficult time keeping up vs turning things around. So setting an excellent foundation prior to this is key.

That all makes perfect sense and sounds really good, but I was born in 1946 and my parents lived from paycheck to paycheck. My dad worked for GM for 42 years and my mother had small home businesses to help get by. They never had a checking account or a savings account. Their "extra" cash was kept in a Calumet baking powder tin in the upright freezer they had in the basement. I was never taught about money and how to make more money. It was the norm back when I (and my husband) grew up to not "worship" money but to be frugal with it so it went as far as it could.

[Singuy]

That all makes perfect sense and sounds really good, but I was born in 1946 and my parents lived from paycheck to paycheck. My dad worked for GM for 42 years and my mother had small home businesses to help get by. They never had a checking account or a savings account. Their "extra" cash was kept in a Calumet baking powder tin in the upright freezer they had in the basement. I was never taught about money and how to make more money. It was the norm back when I (and my husband) grew up to not "worship" money but to be frugal with it so it went as far as it could.

You take all the wisdom you learned here and you pass it on. Maybe you can't turn it around this generation, but there's a good chance for the next.

The worst is to never break the cycle. The "well my parents left me with nothing so I'm going to leave my kids with nothing, once they are 18 they are out the door like I once was!" mentality because for some reason people here thinks everyone should just start from zero. We Asians believe in incremental improvements from one generation to the next. That is how people of disadvantage with language barriers and such ends up succeeding. No one ever starts at zero.

[Scallywag]

Everything can be snowballed. Sure someone making more starts with a larger snowball and can snowball faster, but compounding growth is just math, it doesn't discriminate.

And snowballing doesn't start from the minute you make money, it can start for you as a child. Parents leading by example, teaching their kids the value of money, how compounding works, and how the savings rate % is very important no matter the income.

For example, my parent's saving rate was 50% making min wage in the early 1990s...lets just say none of my toys were new, all dumpster dived or garage sales, and I never felt air conditioner under their roof until I was 16 in Florida. They snowballed never seeing more than 10 dollars/hr in the early years. But the high savings rate gave them the opportunity to buy a business, quadrupling their income. Then the massive savings rate from that income lead them to invest in real estate, and now are worth 2.5 million. My parents barely knows how to speak English. Their education level equivalence due to their inability to manipulate the American language is no better than a 5 year old.

Parents also need to instill the lifetime of concern into the child. A high school student SHOULD have a path lined out, and execute towards that path as best to their abilities. This doesn't necessarily mean college. I had a crazy guide on how to reach a million by working at MCDs by 40yo on this forum which involves no college but must start in the teens and living lean.

So yes while it's true people with more money can take crazy risk and make more money..but anyone can get to that position in some way or another(perhaps not at that scale but any scale is better than zero hope).

Planning and execution is a life time endeavor. It's much harder to turn things around once you establish families in which people will usually have a difficult time keeping up vs turning things around. So setting an excellent foundation prior to this is key.

Ah, I wondered if "Sing" stood for "Singapore" LOL ! Are your parents Singaporean Chinese?

My parents both worked from age 15 & 16, respectively. They never made a lot, either, but they both invested in real estate. Now retired, they made MILLIONS in the real estate booms over the decades, and made enough to put all their kids through college (including one of my brothers through medical school). They never invested in the stock market, though. Neither understood it, and to them it was a "gamble" and they referred to Wall Street as a "casino" where the "house always wins". So they didn't pump a dime into the market but bought land and houses and GOLD. They saved only to buy the next property on the market. They rarely had liquid cash - everything was tied up in real estate assets. What they made in rents, they spent in constantly improving their properties. It was crazy but it all worked. They came from utter poverty but they are multi-millionaires today.

Their siblings, however, lived paycheck to paycheck. They drank, gambled, had gaggles of children, and remained blue collar. Many of my cousins barely graduated high school, and some are the working poor to this day. Always amazes me how out of all the siblings they share between the two of them, my parents alone climbed out of grinding poverty to be where they are. Their success does not make them "better" human beings than my aunts & uncles, but it has given them opportunities denied their siblings & various nephews & nieces.

Savings... frugality... investing...and a solid work ethic -- these are the keys to success, no matter where & how you start.

[Singuy]

Nope we are mainland Chinese. But housing boom also happened in Beijing.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

Ah, I wondered if "Sing" stood for "Singapore" LOL ! Are your parents Singaporean Chinese?

My parents both worked from age 15 & 16, respectively. They never made a lot, either, but they both invested in real estate. Now retired, they made MILLIONS in the real estate booms over the decades, and made enough to put all their kids through college (including one of my brothers through medical school). They never invested in the stock market, though. Neither understood it, and to them it was a "gamble" and they referred to Wall Street as a "casino" where the "house always wins". So they didn't pump a dime into the market but bought land and houses and GOLD. They saved only to buy the next property on the market. They rarely had liquid cash - everything was tied up in real estate assets. What they made in rents, they spent in constantly improving their properties. It was crazy but it all worked. They came from utter poverty but they are multi-millionaires today.

Their siblings, however, lived paycheck to paycheck. They drank, gambled, had gaggles of children, and remained blue collar. Many of my cousins barely graduated high school, and some are the working poor to this day. Always amazes me how out of all the siblings they share between the two of them, my parents alone climbed out of grinding poverty to be where they are. Their success does not make them "better" human beings than my aunts & uncles, but it has given them opportunities denied their siblings & various nephews & nieces.

Savings... frugality... investing...and a solid work ethic -- these are the keys to success, no matter where & how you start.

Amazing. My family didn't make millions from being poor but they quickly stepped out of poverty into SOLID middle class. Homes paid for, solid retirement (some with pension), no millions in the bank but very secure. I think it's more than admirable because they've given each of their kids a solid leg up and it's paid dividends. Maybe I'll be the millionaire able to help my kids