The Biotech Trader Lounge

[KTP]

Man Nokia went nowhere today. I was unable to sell calls at a price I liked.

Oh well, maybe next week.

I had hoped people would realize good google and apple earnings means nokia will get lots of royalty money from patent violations.

[gambler2075]

Man Nokia went nowhere today. I was unable to sell calls at a price I liked.

Oh well, maybe next week.

I had hoped people would realize good google and apple earnings means nokia will get lots of royalty money from patent violations.

Ya know, I realized that it doesn't matter what the truth is, it matters what the masses think. If they can't connect the dots, it doesn't matter that you figured out something that they didn't as the price will be unaffected.

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[KTP]

Ya know, I realized that it doesn't matter what the truth is, it matters what the masses think. If they can't connect the dots, it doesn't matter that you figured out something that they didn't as the price will be unaffected.

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Well, it does matter because that is how you eventually make more money than the masses.

Take AFFY for example. It was silly for it to trade at 5.90, but that is where the masses took it. Those of us that bought it there and sold at $7+ laughed at the masses all the way to the bank (several trips i might add)

Nokia will prove the masses wrong once again. It might not do as well as my GLW play, but I will make money on both.

Nokia probably will cross $6 next week and i can sell those $7.50 calls for a nice premium. I do like the built in protection it has (50% market cap in cash + huge patent portfolio worth well more than the Nortel patents)

[gambler2075]

Well, what I mean is that I have had several situations where I have owned a biotech stock that I knew was massively undervalued, but the market did not realize it yet... and so I had to wait around until the masses figured it out, and THEN I could sell to them.

It's kind of annoying but that is how the game works. I have a ton of bio stocks that I know things that the masses don't know, but I also know that they are not going to realize their value until much later, so I don't bother getting in on them until the retail masses are about to figure things out.

On the other hand, sometimes the retail masses believe things that are ridiculous, but what they believe is what moves the stock, so even if I know that a piece of bio news or a PR is totally minimal in it's effect, it doesn't matter. What matters is what the masses think, and if they THINK the PR is important, than the stock will react.

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[KTP]

Well, what I mean is that I have had several situations where I have owned a biotech stock that I knew was massively undervalued, but the market did not realize it yet... and so I had to wait around until the masses figured it out, and THEN I could sell to them.

It's kind of annoying but that is how the game works. I have a ton of bio stocks that I know things that the masses don't know, but I also know that they are not going to realize their value until much later, so I don't bother getting in on them until the retail masses are about to figure things out.

On the other hand, sometimes the retail masses believe things that are ridiculous, but what they believe is what moves the stock, so even if I know that a piece of bio news or a PR is totally minimal in it's effect, it doesn't matter. What matters is what the masses think, and if they THINK the PR is important, than the stock will react.

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This is very true and that mass mentality is one reason I have not shorted CMG, even though every fiber of my being screams to buy some $330 August puts. It is so horrendously overvalued that it is too big to fail now and the masses will probably take it to $500.

[gambler2075]

Looks like it's time to buy biotechs again!

Oh wait, I'm in biotechs 99% of the time, so nevermind... But for those who might choose biotech vs, say, tech, this makes the argument that buying bios now hs a slight edge...

Best bests in biotechnology | Main Section

‪Money - Pink Floyd + Lyrics‬‏ - YouTube

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[gambler2075]

This is very true and that mass mentality is one reason I have not shorted CMG, even though every fiber of my being screams to buy some $330 August puts. It is so horrendously overvalued that it is too big to fail now and the masses will probably take it to $500.

FWIW, one of the best traders I know is holding CMG, he thinks it is a buy here at 324.

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[KTP]

FWIW, one of the best traders I know is holding CMG, he thinks it is a buy here at 324.

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I am sure EK was considered a buy once at $50 or more too. But ya, if he can find a greater fool, then it might be good to buy at 324.

[gambler2075]

I am sure EK was considered a buy once at $50 or more too. But ya, if he can find a greater fool, then it might be good to buy at 324.

Let me clarify, he is still continuing to hold, which he has for at least a few weeks, which I guess is different from recommending to buy, but the point being that he thinks it is likely to go higher or he would have sold.

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[gambler2075]

My longs are taking a beating today, here's how I looked when I saw my account balance...

‪Flight of the Conchords Ep 12 Bret's Angry Dance‬‏ - YouTube

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[gambler2075]

‪Dinah Washington: What Difference A Day Makes‬‏ - YouTube

Well, I guess it is actually 2 days, but still. DCTH at 5.07, those who bought my shares at 6.45 are down 21% in 2 days. If I had been buy-n-hold investing I would have given back 64K$... hmm..

Watching for a rebuy of DCTH when the time comes, currently bought some other biotechs over the past couple of days, we'll see what happens. Not fully loaded up yet, but do have a 400K$ position in it so not posting. May post when I am done loading...

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Still sneaking my way into that biotech without moving the price too much, still have another 200-300K$ left to add...

Alot of these bios are way overbought, I am running out of underpriced bios. Preferably a drug that is not discovered by the masses/momo players yet.

‪Huey Lewis And The News - I Want A New Drug‬‏ - YouTube

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[KTP]

Yay! A big spread trade in my IRA looks like it might actually hit.

I have been holding 20 spread contracts for Apple Jan 2012 $350 $380 calls, purchased for $12, and it looks like Apple just blew away earnings and will open tommorow near $400. While it is not Jan. yet, this would put both legs of my spread in the money currently, making it worth the full $30 if the $380 short leg is called away.

$60,000 on a $24,000 trade. Will be my best win ever. Possibly I could get out early for $50,000 or so if both legs go really deep in the money. Not sure what I will do.

[Slug]

Congrats. I'm sitting quietly on 33% cash right now waiting for something interesting.

[gambler2075]

Yay! A big spread trade in my IRA looks like it might actually hit.

I have been holding 20 spread contracts for Apple Jan 2012 $350 $380 calls, purchased for $12, and it looks like Apple just blew away earnings and will open tommorow near $400. While it is not Jan. yet, this would put both legs of my spread in the money currently, making it worth the full $30 if the $380 short leg is called away.

$60,000 on a $24,000 trade. Will be my best win ever. Possibly I could get out early for $50,000 or so if both legs go really deep in the money. Not sure what I will do.

I gotta say that AAPL was pretty wild AH... congrats!

‪Tone Loc - Wild Thing‬‏ - YouTube

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[gambler2075]

Been watching NABI for a slam play, they have another phase 3 coming up. No position. Was expecting it to go up a little more today, trading with a market cap of 80M$, with 100M$ in cash...

NABI Basic Chart | Nabi Biopharmaceuticals Stock - Yahoo! Finance

‪pendulum - slam‬‏ - YouTube

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