Do You Guys See An Electric Car In Your Future?

[Nutria]

When we get batteries that are higher capacity, smaller/lighter, and last longer, while still remaining safe... Then EVs might become more attractive. Until then, they'll remain a niche interest.

IOW, until batteries become as useful (both energy density and ease of "reenergizing") as gasoline, and cost as much as ICE vehicles (without the gov't adding an ICE tax) they'll remain the purview of rich people who want to consume conspicuously without buying a Cadillac or Lexus.

[ShineBoldly]

Yes, electric cars and Tesla in general are THE future. All the guys who got them are pretty amazed. Batteries capacity is something and the fact it can self drive... I think you won't even need a man to drive a car in some distant future, haha.

[kork13]

IOW, until batteries become as useful (both energy density and ease of "reenergizing") as gasoline, and cost as much as ICE vehicles (without the gov't adding an ICE tax) they'll remain the purview of rich people who want to consume conspicuously without buying a Cadillac or Lexus.

I wouldn't necessarily go quite that far, saying that EV's must become equal to ICE (400-500 mile range)... But I do think the range for a private auto has to be at least 250-300 miles to be considered a viable alternative. At that range, one could drive for 4-5 hours, stop somewhere for a 30-60 min meal while the car recharges, and continue for another 4-5 hours if desired. Alternately, that range would be enough to last about a week of in-town driving, so you wouldn't be hosed if you forget to plug it in at night.

It's really a question of technology advancement, which will almost certainly happen....we're just not there right now. I don't mean to give the impression that I don't like EV's -- I think they're great. They just aren't ready for the broad market yet. It'll require years of R&D to get there, which is exactly what Tesla & others are working toward, which is outstanding. And as the technology matures and becomes more prevalent, the cost will naturally come down just like every other technology -- starts expensive, becomes more common, then drops in price. We do need early adopters in order to spur interest & demand for it. I'm just not one of them.

As I see it, every major leap in technology requires somebody to either take a big risk & bet it all on an idea (air travel, space flight, computers/the internet, digital music/media, etc.) or an existential threat (fire, bow/arrow, composite materials, nuclear fission, etc.). Battery technology, and EV's by extension, are just another such technological leap that I believe we will eventually make. .... just not yet. Historically, science fiction frequently becomes science fact (at least in terms of tech -- robotics, computers, lasers, submarines, on and on). Current and past science fiction broadly portrays cars & other vehicles being powered either by electricity or by nuclear reaction (which creates electricity). Thus, I see it as a reasonable expectation to believe that we will EVENTUALLY transition to primarily EV's.

[rennigade]

Where I can purchase the crystal ball everyone is using to predict the future?

[Nutria]

I wouldn't necessarily go quite that far, saying that EV's must become equal to ICE (400-500 mile range)... But I do think the range for a private auto has to be at least 250-300 miles to be considered a viable alternative. At that range, one could drive for 4-5 hours, stop somewhere for a 30-60 min meal while the car recharges, and continue for another 4-5 hours if desired.

You've never driven with us: buy a couple of packs of nutrition bars, load a cooler with meal replacement drinks and drive (almost, with short breaks only for fuel, restroom and driver switch) non-stop from morning to night.

[Spiffster]

You do realize that it costs GM about $89,000 to produce a volt, I assume? How much demand would there be at that price you think? Without subsidies and massive losses by GM, that would be your price, plus a few $ grand for profit.

The math simply doesn’t work on these without the government’s meddling.

Where on earth did you get the idea that the Volt costs $89,000 to produce? Perhaps provide a source so we can all have a good laugh? Having apparently owned one I would think you would know better than this. I believe the Gen 1 Volt was sold at a loss, then again so was the Gen 1 Prius. Remember when a certain (highly biased) news outlet was saying it cost GM $250k to produce one? LOL. The logic was basically R&D + production and tooling costs / current amount sold. Even then it was a highly speculative number. But no reasonable person uses such flawed logic, and most people understand simple economic principles like economy of scale... Basically with that mindset you could say that the first car that rolls of the production line costs a billion dollars, or whatever costs incurred to get the first car to production.

The following quote comes to mind: "Yes, it's a black Samsonite. Uh-huh. Ok, well don't you think that the Samsonite people, in some crazy scheme in order to make a profit, MADE MORE THAN ONE BLACK SUITCASE?"

[Nutria]

Remember when a certain (highly biased) news outlet was saying it cost GM $250k to produce one? LOL. The logic was basically R&D + production and tooling costs / current amount sold. Even then it was a highly speculative number. But no reasonable person uses such flawed logic, and most people understand simple economic principles like economy of scale...

People regularly use that same method when referring to the cost of military hardware like the F-35.

[Spiffster]

I will chime in since I have owned a few EVs / Hybrids over the past 10 years.
First off, most people dont buy an EV to save money. Maybe time, but not money. Heck most people dont buy a new car to save money. At least at this point in the game EVs have not reached cost parity with your basic ICE based auto, but the price gap is closing quickly. In the Luxury segment, they are almost competitive. IMO the Model S is priced right for its segment, its similar in price to Audi A8, BMW 7 Series, etc... sales figures are very good and the car itself is very profitable for Tesla.

The reasons I chose to buy an EV:
1. The Federal and State rebates in Colorado for EV/Hybrid are very generous. Too generous IMO, but that doesnt stop me from taking advantage of them.
2. Both of our commutes are only 40 miles round trip.
3. We have 4.96kW of solar panels that pair well with EVs
4. No need (or far fewer) for trips to the dealership / shop for maintenance like oil changes, brake pad replacement, tune ups... etc.
5. Fueling up takes seconds. Basically the time it takes to plugin when we get home from work and unplug the car the next morning.

That said, we dont drive EVs to save money (or the world ), we drive them because we like the convenience and technology. My wife's RAV4 EV has 60k miles and we have spent a grand total of $0.00 on maintenance... unless you consider new tires a maintenance item.

One other nice thing, at least in colder climates, you can remote start and warm the car while keeping the garage closed without the worry of asphyxiating your family. . When you are ready to go, just open the garage and drive off... no need to deal with the cold weather, that is, until you get to work.

[TexasHusker]

Where on earth did you get the idea that the Volt costs $89,000 to produce? Perhaps provide a source so we can all have a good laugh? Having apparently owned one I would think you would know better than this. I believe the Gen 1 Volt was sold at a loss, then again so was the Gen 1 Prius. Remember when a certain (highly biased) news outlet was saying it cost GM $250k to produce one? LOL. The logic was basically R&D + production and tooling costs / current amount sold. Even then it was a highly speculative number. But no reasonable person uses such flawed logic, and most people understand simple economic principles like economy of scale... Basically with that mindset you could say that the first car that rolls of the production line costs a billion dollars, or whatever it cost to get the first car to production.

The following quote comes to mind: "Yes, it's a black Samsonite. Uh-huh. Ok, well don't you think that the Samsonite people, in some crazy scheme in order to make a profit, MADE MORE THAN ONE BLACK SUITCASE?"

LOL all you want. Have a good laugh at some of this:

http://theweek.com/articles/472473/chevy-volts-89000-production-cost-waste-money

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-generalmotors-autos-volt/insight-gms-volt-the-ugly-math-of-low-sales-high-costs-idUSBRE88904J20120910

http://www.nydailynews.com/autos/sales-high-costs-chevrolet-volt-general-motors-loses-49-000-vehicle-article-1.1155853

https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/seton-motley/2012/09/26/record-volt-sales%C2%A0-not-really-gm-counts-159-leases-89000-car

https://www.weaselzippers.us/128954-gm-production-cost-for-the-chevy-volt-an-astronomical-89000-per-car-company-loses-49000-for-each-volt-it-sells/

https://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=https://www.forbes.com/sites/michelinemaynard/2012/09/10/stunner-gm-may-be-losing-50000-on-each-chevrolet-volt/&refURL=https://search.yahoo.com/&referrer=https://search.yahoo.com/

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gm-loses-over-49000-every-chevy-volt?page=2

http://michiganradio.org/webclip/math-behind-chevy-volt-will-it-ever-add-gm

[MonkeyMama]

First off, most people dont buy an EV to save money.

I am guessing this varies widely based on locale and circumstances. Honestly the ONLY reason I know that people drive hybrids or EVs is to save money. But I live in a state with a lot of financial incentives and infrastructure in place. I just honestly don't know anyone with any other motivation. (Our gas prices are very high, so hybrids are a HUGE cost savings for anyone who puts a LOT Of miles on their cars. The EVS and the electricity to fuel them are being given away at this stage of the game. But clearly I am not talking about Teslas. ).

[Spiffster]

LOL all you want. Have a good laugh at some of this:

http://theweek.com/articles/472473/chevy-volts-89000-production-cost-waste-money

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-generalmotors-autos-volt/insight-gms-volt-the-ugly-math-of-low-sales-high-costs-idUSBRE88904J20120910

http://www.nydailynews.com/autos/sales-high-costs-chevrolet-volt-general-motors-loses-49-000-vehicle-article-1.1155853

https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/seton-motley/2012/09/26/record-volt-sales%C2%A0-not-really-gm-counts-159-leases-89000-car

https://www.weaselzippers.us/128954-gm-production-cost-for-the-chevy-volt-an-astronomical-89000-per-car-company-loses-49000-for-each-volt-it-sells/

https://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=https://www.forbes.com/sites/michelinemaynard/2012/09/10/stunner-gm-may-be-losing-50000-on-each-chevrolet-volt/&refURL=https://search.yahoo.com/&referrer=https://search.yahoo.com/

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gm-loses-over-49000-every-chevy-volt?page=2

http://michiganradio.org/webclip/mat...it-ever-add-gm

That was good for a laugh, thanks. I hope you didnt spend too much time gathering articles from 2012. Yes, all of them.

[TexasHusker]

That was good for a laugh, thanks. I hope you didnt spend too much time gathering articles from 2012. Yes, all of them.

Has the picture changed substantially for GM since then? I'm all ears.

[TexasHusker]

Looks like interest in the Volt, at least, is dropping.

[TexasHusker]

Looks like Leaf sales are pretty flat, too.

[TexasHusker]

Looks like the Volt has never made it to 3% of Chevy sales. One would think that if EVs were going to be "the deal", we'd start seeing 5-10-15% of sales at some point?