What's Up With Inflation and All These Shortages?

[jIM_MI]

I went into my local Kroger this afternoon to pick up a night light for my son. I was checking the prices on crackers and cookies - they were all up by like 25% over what they normally are.

Also - the price of gas seems like its getting higher too. Filling up my truck is costing me like $44 bucks per tank - it used to cost $32.

Something else I've noticed, for a lot of products the variety isn't there in the way it used to be. For example, I was looking for some boxed juice for my kids a couple of weeks back. The store only had like 4 or 5 varieties - normally they have 10 or 12.

So, I'm wondering if you guys are seeing the same thing?

And, more importantly, what are you doing about it?

Oil is priced in US$, so if the US dollar is weak, the price of oil goes up because that means the dollar the oil producer gets buys less, so they charge more for weaker dollar oil. The way this would change is if the US raised interest rates.
as for the other goods, yes inflation is here, there is very little a consumer can do- I plan to borrow money/ leverage myself more to prepare for high inflation.

[jIM_MI]

Someone over at ER made a great point. When they say the current inflation is transitory, that doesn’t mean prices will come back down. It means the rate of inflation will come down. Right now it’s 5%. It will drift back down to 2-3%. But today’s higher prices are here to stay. That totally makes sense. I hadn’t thought of it in those terms.

I agree- the cost of building supplies has gone up, in part because of transportation prices and availability, even if supply improves or transportation levels off/ goes down, those savings will be profit to the builder, not savings for the customer.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

I agree- the cost of building supplies has gone up, in part because of transportation prices and availability, even if supply improves or transportation levels off/ goes down, those savings will be profit to the builder, not savings for the customer.

Nope we are going to get conditioned to higher prices long term and it's a new way of life.

[disneysteve]

Nope we are going to get conditioned to higher prices long term and it's a new way of life.

Yes. When people (including me) hear that the current inflation is considered transitory, we tend to think that means the prices will come back down, but that isn't what it means at all. It means the higher inflation RATE is transitory and that will come back down, but only deflation would result in prices coming down.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

Yes. When people (including me) hear that the current inflation is considered transitory, we tend to think that means the prices will come back down, but that isn't what it means at all. It means the higher inflation RATE is transitory and that will come back down, but only deflation would result in prices coming down.

Have you seen the price of homes? We are getting conditioned that home prices have skyrocketed because the dollar is getting worthless so homes are way more expensive. I haven't been through the stagflation 70s or inflation 80s and it is nuts now.

[scfr]

What are you all doing to prepare for winter as far as taking action now to try to keep heating costs under control? The forecast for change in fuel bills this winter is not looking good.
I just ordered a new furnace filter for my mom and will change out her old one, to make sure her ancient heater is running as efficiently as possible. Her lightweight thermal underwear, hats, gloves, robes & slippers are now easily accessible instead of buried in a pile. They have curtains that they never close; I should talk to my brother about closing them at night.
I've ordered an extra robe and warm pjs for myself, and my mom gave me a couple of her old sweaters when we were decluttering her clothes, so I'm prepared to do some extra bundling up at home.

[Singuy]

Inflation is just caused by supply chain issues from Covid, not because everyone is swimming in cash all of a sudden. In fact I feel like people has way less purchasing power today due to rent and gas increase. Rent is increasing due to landlords needing those who can pay to subsides those who can't but cannot be evicted. So as people earns slightly more per paycheck, the rise in items that are harder to come by today like new cars due to chip shortages are creeping up in price.

Eventually this will worth itself out as production plant always over produce after a period of under production. We will see many things flood the market soon enough next year.

[disneysteve]

Inflation is just caused by supply chain issues from Covid, not because everyone is swimming in cash all of a sudden.

I think it's a combination of both. Look at how many people, unable to travel due to COVID, decided instead to spend that money remodeling their homes. That spiked demand for building supplies and contractors. Coupled with supply shortages and labor shortages, it all added up to higher prices. Supply and demand both matter.

[QuarterMillionMan]

My news in Los Angeles said now 81 ships wsiting to port, last month was 60’s, it’s getting worse.

[ua_guy]

My news in Los Angeles said now 81 ships wsiting to port, last month was 60’s, it’s getting worse.

It's really a mess. Increasing staffing and hours at the ports is only one piece of the puzzle. A lot of archaic laws are holding things up too. There are fairly large ports all up and down the West Coast. To undo the jam in Long Beach, you'd think they might take a couple of days to move containers to other minor ports. Well, the Jones Act requires cargo moved between US ports to be done by US-flagged ships. What are the US-flagged ships doing? Other things that generate more revenue. And the fines imposed by the ports when containers sit...well, those are cheaper to pay than paying higher costs for alternate transport.

Things sitting in containers.....take up containers. And when there are no people to unload containers at the port, or at distribution, things sit in containers, and they also sit on truck trailers. Now there's a shortage of both.

And there's a shortage of drivers to move those containers around the country. Rail? Ha. If that wasn't already going for a premium and competing with oil and other commodities.

And, and, and....

[rennigade]

Im glad this port issue is happening. Its a wake up call as to how fragile our society really is. As for people living in cities, have fun. How many days can a major city go without deliveries? Maybe we'll find out.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

Im glad this port issue is happening. Its a wake up call as to how fragile our society really is. As for people living in cities, have fun. How many days can a major city go without deliveries? Maybe we'll find out.

Well wouldn't deliveries go to major cities before it went out to the countryside? So anything in the country or rural areas would be the first hit with rich people in the cities paying a premium? Sucks to be poor either way. And maybe rural you can grow your own food and well water and solar energy off the grid. But anything else I would think that people in cities would be where goods would go?

[james.hendrickson]

Im glad this port issue is happening. Its a wake up call as to how fragile our society really is. As for people living in cities, have fun. How many days can a major city go without deliveries? Maybe we'll find out.

Um, well, realistically our cities are not going to collapse anytime soon. Realistically the problem most consumers are facing is 6% monthly inflation.

[QuarterMillionMan]

Today at my Kroger in Los Angeles, spend at least $25 and get a Butterball for $1.49/lb. Regular price is $1.99/lb which seems like year's past. My Walmart might be .99 cents/lb with no minimum spend which I'll check out later.

[james.hendrickson]

Today at my Kroger in Los Angeles, spend at least $25 and get a Butterball for $1.49/lb. Regular price is $1.99/lb which seems like year's past. My Walmart might be .99 cents/lb with no minimum spend which I'll check out later.

Wal-mart has some sort of deal with Ibotta, they're offering 100% cash back on several items for Thanksgiving.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/shopping/2021/11/01/walmart-free-thanksgiving-dinner-ibotta-rebate/6170097001/