What’s your plan in 2035 when E-cars are mandatory?

[Singuy]

Nope, people won't be able to afford a tesla 3 even until the prices come down to $10k. There are a lot of people buying still $10-20k cars because that's that they can afford. A model 3 where I live with tax is still $40k.

Second, where I live no solar. Sorry no bueno. NOT ever going to happen. No SUN. NO SOLAR. NOTHING can be done. Can't get electricity when you don't see the sun for 60+ days. Small problem. Sure solar is great in practice. Great in Hawaii. Great in Florida, arizona, hawaii, texas. Well live somewhere that in the winter there is no sun? My in-laws live far north part of canada. Sun in winter (much like alaska) is for how few hours if they get it? So how are they exactly going to power their car?

Also my FIL has a tesla (he wants self driving). He admits it gets very poor mileage his 2019 Model X which is supposed to be 300km? More like 200km in the winter if not less. Gotta heat the car, run it warmer. Battery doesn't last as long. Oh well. Can't win everything right? Dang it. Can't win.

Tesla was built for california and works great in Fl. I think it's a whole different ballgame if you live somewhere that the weather is not perfect and sunny. I've been on a roadtrip this summer with a model X and a model S. Neither car could make it up the mountain and down for us to do the hike and back with their charge. It was sketchy at best. We realized it as we were driving and the cars were like "um 3% battery" potential at end of trip. So we had to skip our hike because risking that was insane.

my plan is when it's time to buy our next car's we'll probably buy a tesla for the FSD. But until then we'll just chill with what we have.

The thing about the grid and electricity is that power travel great distances at the speed of light. You don't need the sun where you live as Solar can be install hundreds of miles away to feed into the grid. The great thing about solar is that finding where the sun shines is an order of magnitude easier than finding an oil well.

[QuarterMillionMan]

https://ktla.com/news/nationworld/u-k-to-ban-gasoline-car-sales-by-2030-decade-earlier-than-planned-as-part-of-green-industrial-revolution/

UK banning gas cars by 2030 before California & Canada in 2035, the snow ball effect is getting bigger.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

The thing about the grid and electricity is that power travel great distances at the speed of light. You don't need the sun where you live as Solar can be install hundreds of miles away to feed into the grid. The great thing about solar is that finding where the sun shines is an order of magnitude easier than finding an oil well.

How will it work for the average consumer? So they should just place solar panels in arizona and florida and california and can power everyone else? Have you read Lucky Robin's post about fracking and the environmental cost of solar? That there is costs associated with mining for making batteries, costs for producing solar panels? That can be more than drilling? Which is more regulated?

I don't think things are necessarily black or white. I think there is a lot of things to look at when going "green" and whether it really is green.

[QuarterMillionMan]

The world's largest solar power system is located at Ivanpah at the Cal-Neva border. I have driven past it many times before and it is massive and bright with all the mirrors. I expect to see more of these across the country.

http://www.brightsourceenergy.com/ivanpah-solar-project#.X7Vv-GhKjIU

[ua_guy]

One charming thing about the Midwest when I was there was that I see wind energy is becoming more prevalent. It's also a great place for solar too as they see a lot of sun even in the winter months.

No joke, they had EV charging stations in the front row of some of the HyVee stores (a big supermarket chain there) which were powered partly by wind.

[GoodLiving]

Why would your car possibly need Disney+, and what is FSD?

I would imagine that's for all of those folks who have their kids watch DVDs while they are driving. (Call me old and crotchety - back in my day, we had to look out the window to entertain ourselves). I also looked up FSD - Full Self Driving (and it's also the airport code for Sioux Falls, SD)

[disneysteve]

I would imagine that's for all of those folks who have their kids watch DVDs while they are driving. (Call me old and crotchety - back in my day, we had to look out the window to entertain ourselves). I also looked up FSD - Full Self Driving (and it's also the airport code for Sioux Falls, SD)

I thought of Disney+ being for the kids. I'm guessing the cars have screens in the back. Personally, we can just stream on our phones or download stuff to our tablets so wouldn't need to bother with this.

I also looked up FSD. It will be great if that technology is perfected some day. It may not be in my lifetime though.

[scfr]

When we've looked at cars the past few years, they've been either plug-in hybrids or electric cars, and we probably would have purchased one if we hadn't wound up buying my mom's car from her. So law changes won't impact us directly. We currently own 2 hybrids (2009 & 2010), so going to plug-in hybrid or e-car will be more of an incremental change for us.

[Scallywag]

My concern is cost, ease of maintenance and safety of operation. H & I will both be older but not quite "elderly". If the cost comes down to below 15K, we still live in a sunny state and the vehicle is safe to own, operate & maintain by older adults then for sure. But something tells me that EVs would be unlikely to cost below 15K by 2035, so no go unless mandated by law (and then extremely grudgingly)

[kork13]

Even if theoretically this aspirational goal of full EV use by any given date, they wouldn't suddenly outlaw gassers on the road. At most, they could only mandate that only EVs can be sold by the car companies. Technically they could bar gassers from being re-registered, but I strongly doubt that would be done.

So don't worry, the government won't suddenly come & seize your dirty polluting gasser.... Except maybe in Cali -- those folks are crazy.

[amarowsky]

No plan currently, but I'll gladly welcome the electric car market.

TBH I bet by 2035, the dynamics of "logistics" will be much different, or hard to even predict today.

When I imagine a more "fully autonomous enabled national fleet" of cars/trucks. I have a suspicion.... that Owning and Operating your OWN car MANUALLY , will likely be a luxury offered to more wealthy people. Reason I think this, will be that "manual" vs "A.i." driven, I can only see "manual" operation being the much higher liability. Because AI doesn't have any motivation to be distracted. And I can't see insurance underwriters thinking "people" will be safer than "AI" [by the time it's advanced enough to be mainstream].

It seems most logical that renting an AI - Electric car will likely be the most economical. Say you rent it for just transportation (or maybe work day rental if you need a truck that day). I have a feeling this will be cheaper/better value than owning a car that isn't always working and making money for you (you own it and it sits idle for ~22/24 hours a day).

Back when I was a corporate sales guy, living in a cube as a Toyota account manager. My discipline was Auto-drive related safety components (sonar, Radar, Cameras, Blind spot detection, etc...). So I feel I do have a decent interpretation of the future expectations of these components becoming more common/standard. So you can consider that w/ my Hypothesis and speculation I provided above.


As far as electric.... Seems like, the SECOND the next iteration of battery technology is here and ready for mass production... That nearly everyone would prefer electric over gas. (i know we don't have that yet) but even as is, they seem to be pretty compelling. And clearly higher performance and seemingly becoming more the norm.

[jIM_MI]

I certainly don't have any sort of plan for what may or may not happen 15 years from now.

I just bought a 2018 Camry. I'll probably have that for 12 years or so. At that point, I'll figure out what to buy next.

Personally, I don't think gas cars will disappear in 15 years. A lot can change in technology so anything is possible but you're talking about totally transforming the way we have driven for over 130 years. A lot has to happen between now and 2035 to make e-cars the only option. Tesla has done impressive things but there can't just be one option. Every major manufacturer needs to have competitive offerings. We need a couple hundred thousand more charging stations across the country. Houses need to be retrofitted with charging stations. Apartment buildings need a way for residents to charge their cars. In cities, you'd need charging stations along nearly every street the way parking meters are now. The same for parking lots - every space would need a charger. When I lived in Philadelphia, we parked out on the street, not near our house. How would we charge our cars?

I just don't see all of that happening in 15 years.

Government influencing supply and demand is cause for inflation (see health care and education as exhibits 1 and 2). If electric cars become exhibit 3, what would inflation look like? Currently about 1% of cars produced are electric. Most companies (GM and Ford for example) have to build new plants to make electric vehicles (it is not efficient to convert a combustion plant to an electric plant). Lordstown and rouge are two examples if you need to google something for proof. For the OEMs to catch up (meaning 99% of vehicles produced are electric),the dealers will need to sell electric.

Remember, auto companies don't sell to the public, they sell to dealers.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

No plan currently, but I'll gladly welcome the electric car market.

TBH I bet by 2035, the dynamics of "logistics" will be much different, or hard to even predict today.

When I imagine a more "fully autonomous enabled national fleet" of cars/trucks. I have a suspicion.... that Owning and Operating your OWN car MANUALLY , will likely be a luxury offered to more wealthy people. Reason I think this, will be that "manual" vs "A.i." driven, I can only see "manual" operation being the much higher liability. Because AI doesn't have any motivation to be distracted. And I can't see insurance underwriters thinking "people" will be safer than "AI" [by the time it's advanced enough to be mainstream].

It seems most logical that renting an AI - Electric car will likely be the most economical. Say you rent it for just transportation (or maybe work day rental if you need a truck that day). I have a feeling this will be cheaper/better value than owning a car that isn't always working and making money for you (you own it and it sits idle for ~22/24 hours a day).

Back when I was a corporate sales guy, living in a cube as a Toyota account manager. My discipline was Auto-drive related safety components (sonar, Radar, Cameras, Blind spot detection, etc...). So I feel I do have a decent interpretation of the future expectations of these components becoming more common/standard. So you can consider that w/ my Hypothesis and speculation I provided above.


As far as electric.... Seems like, the SECOND the next iteration of battery technology is here and ready for mass production... That nearly everyone would prefer electric over gas. (i know we don't have that yet) but even as is, they seem to be pretty compelling. And clearly higher performance and seemingly becoming more the norm.

My husband has always argued that car sharing by leasing will be the way to go in the future with self-driving. It doesn't make sense that we buy cars to have them sit for hours. I can see that. I mean seriously right now we don't need a second car.

[disneysteve]

My husband has always argued that car sharing by leasing will be the way to go in the future with self-driving. It doesn't make sense that we buy cars to have them sit for hours.

Even today, many people go without cars and use Uber/Lyft to get around. It works out cheaper than owning their own vehicle. I used to work with a tech who used Uber to get to and from work. Imagine how much more common that will be when there is a fleet of self-driving vehicles on the road.

[amarowsky]

Government influencing supply and demand is cause for inflation (see health care and education as exhibits 1 and 2). If electric cars become exhibit 3, what would inflation look like?

Remember, auto companies don't sell to the public, they sell to dealers.

While I follow your logic, I think this is not a directly comparable point. Maybe a bit towards education, but Healthcare is NOT able to be compared to.

Reason being, health care is un-substitutable. You can't chose an alternative, to being healthy. So emotionally, you HAVE to spend whatever they tell you to get well, this is especially true for emergency situations. Education you can substitute. If we are using education as a step to enable = Higher income earning. I'd imagine that's the eventual goal 90% of people go to school for, is to find a way to make a living. If you choose to forgo this in 2020, it does drastically limit your options. But you can find other subtitues, (working harder or longer, leaning into talents, develop skill, or something else). Vehicles, there are many many substitutions. Like move closer to work, bicycle, walk, ride share, use cab's, public transportation, carpool, and etc....

You don't have to buy a car to work. But you do (on average) need education to earn a decent or higher wage. And you absolutely need healthcare, if you want to be a independent productive member of society.

So I don't think you should compare this type of government policy, the same as the other 2. That being said, I hear your concern with government meddle in the market. I dont like it in most cases, at least this is one that is trying to motivate a more efficient cause (electrical vs gas). So I don't mind it.... I'd prefer them to meddle in cars, before they do in many other industries.... (I still think we've proved we are not responsible enough to maintain a subsidized, for profit, healthcare). But I'll end it there, as you all know my stance, and it's not a corollary thread directly.