Main Street vs. Wall Street (article)

[disneysteve]

The market is assuming a recovery by 4Q20.

Exactly. The market is forward-looking. It isn't responding to what's happening today or what happened last week. It moves based on what it thinks will be happening 6 months from now.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

Exactly. The market is forward-looking. It isn't responding to what's happening today or what happened last week. It moves based on what it thinks will be happening 6 months from now.

Does the market still think recovery by the end of the year? Sure seems like it.

[bjl584]

Does the market still think recovery by the end of the year? Sure seems like it.

I have heard that they expect Q2 to be bad but bug improvements in Q3 and Q4

[disneysteve]

I have heard that they expect Q2 to be bad but bug improvements in Q3 and Q4

Yes, that seems to be the expectation. Q1 is already a loss. Q2 will be as well. But by September 1, things should be mostly open and on the road back.

[james.hendrickson]

Do you guys believe that markets efficiently process all known information?

I think there is plenty of room for discussion there.

[bjl584]

Do you guys believe that markets efficiently process all known information?

I think there is plenty of room for discussion there.

Nope. Too much emotion and too many computers automatically buying and selling based on algorithms.

[corn18]

Do you guys believe that markets efficiently process all known information?

I think there is plenty of room for discussion there.

In the short term, heck no. In the long run, absolutely.

[disneysteve]

In the short term, heck no. In the long run, absolutely.

I agree. Short term, trading happens based on emotion, fear, predictions, expectations, window dressing at the end of a quarter, the weather, the phase of the moon, etc. Long term, I think the market gets it right.