April 15th

[bjl584]

I've read somewhere that around 70% of the US Population will be exposed or be carries.
Not everyone will show symptoms or actually catch it. But they can potentially pass it to others.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

do you really think it'll grow that exponentially in the next week?

[disneysteve]

do you really think it'll grow that exponentially in the next week?

Yes. Keep in mind that there is a considerable lag time between when people are tested and when results come back. As more and more tests are being done, the confirmed number of cases is just going to continue to skyrocket. We're getting a couple thousand new cases per day here in NJ.

It is taking as much as 10 days or even more to get results here. I looked up 2 patients today, both tested on 3/20, and neither result was back yet.

The number of cases is probably going to peak in the next 2-3 weeks according to tracking estimates.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

but of course we'll be underestimating since i don't know anyone yet tested. . A friends husband was traveling to UK in Feb. They being 28 upper management came back on the private jet. They were all "quarantined" by the company. Well he's still in quarantine because all 28 were sick of varying degrees. He's been coughing and a fever but never breaking 100. But 1 guy out of 28 hit 102 and finally on Thursday March 26th got tested. He's a young guy. He had a major fever and cough. And they've been in "quarantine" at a hotel by the company since about March 1st. All 28 people. All of them have had some varying degrees but none until that 1 guy had serious enough issues to warrant a test. That and every time one of them had a fever they reset the 14 days all of them had to be quarantined from their families. Soo. I'm going to guess 28 more corona virus cases? But maybe only one will be tested and confirmed.

[disneysteve]

I'm going to guess 28 more corona virus cases? But maybe only one will be tested and confirmed.

Exactly. And, as I said, the number being tested is steadily rising as more tests become available. And results for thousands of people already tested will start coming in. So yes, the number of confirmed cases is going to continue to zoom upward.

Plus, you've still got many areas in the US that haven't gone on lock down yet. In fact, I think only about 15 states have even though there are cases and community spread in all 50 states. The longer they wait to shut down, the longer they need to stay shut down to make a difference. The national shut down should have happened a week or two ago. At this point, it's probably too late.

[Like2Plan]

This web site

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

estimates peak resource need (I don't know if that correlates with peak infection rate), but Virginia is not estimated to peak until May 28th.
They are still doing contact tracing in my county according to the web site. I don't know if the estimated peak is so much later due to "flattening the curve". Our schools (in Northern VA) have been out since the 16th of March (actually, before that for many because I believe they made the announcement on the 12th and I think many parents didn't see the point of sending their kids to school on the13th.)

Yesterday, the VA governor announced a stay at home order until Jun 10th.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

June 10th? You are killing me. It makes me certain I'll be locked at home until June 10th. I guess the states that already are on lockdown will not be allowed out because I can't see how it makes sense to let them "off" if other states are just shutting down. Unless we ban all interstate travel?

[TexasHusker]

I think this economy is in the tank for many years if we are still locked down much beyond May 1. At some point we have to go back to work.

[Like2Plan]

June 10th? You are killing me. It makes me certain I'll be locked at home until June 10th. I guess the states that already are on lockdown will not be allowed out because I can't see how it makes sense to let them "off" if other states are just shutting down. Unless we ban all interstate travel?

I'm not so sure everyone will be on lock down that long--just that we will peak much later than just about anyone else (maybe because we started later?). Washington state is suppose to reach peak resource use on April 19th. I am not an epidemiologist, so I don't know what goes into the modeling. This modeling was done by The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) -an independent global health research center at the University of Washington.

[Like2Plan]

I think this economy is in the tank for many years if we are still locked down much beyond May 1. At some point we have to go back to work.

The model puts Texas at peak resource use on May 5th. (I've noticed these numbers fluctuate, but again I don't know what data goes into the models to come up with these estimates).

I don't know if it is intentional, but in a way it is better that not every state needs resources (such as ventilators) at the same time...

[disneysteve]

it is better that not every state needs resources (such as ventilators) at the same time...

Absolutely. If the entire country was peaking at the same time, we'd be in deep, deep trouble.

As it is now, resources can be directed where they are most needed, and when the need dissipates, those resources can be sent elsewhere. For example, the Navy ship that arrived in NYC yesterday can sail to another locale once the surge dies down there. Ventilators can be shipped. And volunteers can move from place to place.

[Thrif-t]

I'm not so sure everyone will be on lock down that long--just that we will peak much later than just about anyone else (maybe because we started later?). Washington state is suppose to reach peak resource use on April 19th. I am not an epidemiologist, so I don't know what goes into the modeling. This modeling was done by The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) -an independent global health research center at the University of Washington.

On another board I'm on, a poster from WA said their Governor issued their lock down till June 10th too. Ugh! I'm in Ohio...our's just got extended till April 30th. I wonder if they don't want to depress us so they're going to dribble out new dates over time.

[Like2Plan]

On another board I'm on, a poster from WA said their Governor issued their lock down till June 10th too. Ugh! I'm in Ohio...our's just got extended till April 30th. I wonder if they don't want to depress us so they're going to dribble out new dates over time.

Yow-sers! I was hoping the 10th of June was just an East Coast/VA thing. I just went through and cancelled all my May trips. Now, June is not looking so good (but still hoping for time off for good behavior).

[disneysteve]

Not to get political, but I read an article today about how each state's restrictions are often tied to whether the governor is a Republican or Democrat. The "blue" states are much more likely to have state-wide shut downs. The "red" states are more likely to be leaving it up to each individual municipality to do their own thing. Of course, that means that your town could be shut down and the town a few streets over could be open, which completely defeats the whole point.

The lack of a national response makes more sense (well no, it makes no sense, but it's easier to see where it's coming from) when you see how politics plays into the decision making process. It's just a disgrace that this is a political issue at all.

[bjl584]

Not to get political, but I read an article today about how each state's restrictions are often tied to whether the governor is a Republican or Democrat. The "blue" states are much more likely to have state-wide shut downs. The "red" states are more likely to be leaving it up to each individual municipality to do their own thing. Of course, that means that your town could be shut down and the town a few streets over could be open, which completely defeats the whole point.

The lack of a national response makes more sense (well no, it makes no sense, but it's easier to see where it's coming from) when you see how politics plays into the decision making process. It's just a disgrace that this is a political issue at all.

Here in PA the shut down has been municipality by municipality. Now, county by county.
No state-wide shut down yet.
Governor Wolf is a Democrat. Not that it probably matters.