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April 15th

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    April 15th

    I did a quick calculation, and we are having approximately 34% more Corona diagnoses each day. If we keep going at that pace, on April 15th, we have 150 million that have been diagnosed. Better flatten out that curve a tad!
    Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

    -George Carlin

    #2
    Originally posted by TexasHusker View Post
    I did a quick calculation, and we are having approximately 34% more Corona diagnoses each day. If we keep going at that pace, on April 15th, we have 150 million that have been diagnosed. Better flatten out that curve a tad!
    I believe 33% more each day is the estimate if no mitigation strategies are in place. I've seen estimates of 7-10 days to see if the mitigation strategies are working -this due to an average 5 ish days (up to 12 days) from exposure to infection plus a lag time to when medical treatment/testing might be sought out. But, right now this country is ramping up testing so the 34% might just reflect that we are testing more.

    Comment


      #3
      There are 2 factors at play here.

      Disease spread is exponential because each positive case infects multiple other people.

      Testing is still ramping up so the number of confirmed cases will grow as more people get tested. Still, most people can't get a test. I can't even though I'm 99% sure I've been exposed. Around here, they are only testing symptomatic high risk individuals. Without widespread testing, the actual number of cases will never be known.
      Steve

      * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
      * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
      * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

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        #4
        The New York numbers are terrifying. They have jumped far ahead of Washington state. I was looking at Washington state--they have been doubling about every 5 days. The thing is everywhere else is not that far behind--but, you don't know if it is because they don't have the tests (and have lots more cases) or if there are actually fewer cases. I wonder how long it has been spreading undetected in various communities...

        I hope they find the self test kit viable (where it gives accurate results and they have enough of them) because that would solve a lot of problems with PPE and health care worker exposure.
        https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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          #5
          testing isn't broad enough. I'm sure at least 50% or more of people I know have it. But only if you are older and symptomatic have you been tested.
          LivingAlmostLarge Blog

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            #6
            Originally posted by LivingAlmostLarge View Post
            testing isn't broad enough. I'm sure at least 50% or more of people I know have it. But only if you are older and symptomatic have you been tested.
            50% of the people you know have Wuhan virus?
            Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

            -George Carlin

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by TexasHusker View Post

              50% of the people you know have Wuhan virus?
              I doubt it's 50% yet but it will be within a few months. They expect 50-70% of the population to have it.
              Steve

              * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
              * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
              * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

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                #8
                yes i would not be surprised.
                LivingAlmostLarge Blog

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                  #9
                  COVID-19 Projections from University of Washington (expecting April 14th to be peak resource usage)

                  https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections


                  Dr. Anthony Fauci estimates that the coronavirus pandemic could cause 100-200K deaths in the United States.

                  https://seekingalpha.com/news/355610...000-u-s-deaths

                  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...2F+Top+News%29

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by Like2Plan View Post
                    COVID-19 Projections from University of Washington (expecting April 14th to be peak resource usage)

                    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections


                    Dr. Anthony Fauci estimates that the coronavirus pandemic could cause 100-200K deaths in the United States.

                    https://seekingalpha.com/news/355610...000-u-s-deaths

                    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...2F+Top+News%29
                    That’s one out of every 2000 Americans.
                    Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

                    -George Carlin

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by Like2Plan View Post

                      Dr. Anthony Fauci estimates that the coronavirus pandemic could cause 100-200K deaths in the United States.
                      That's a lot lower than I thought they were predicting.
                      Steve

                      * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                      * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                      * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by disneysteve View Post
                        That's a lot lower than I thought they were predicting.
                        I think President Trump/ Dr. Birx said the number would have been much higher without mitigation. I think they said 1.2 million deaths per the CDC modeling.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Like2Plan View Post

                          I think President Trump/ Dr. Birx said the number would have been much higher without mitigation. I think they said 1.2 million deaths per the CDC modeling.
                          Yeah, the 1-1.5 million was the number I had seen, which was 1% of the total anticipated cases. If everything being done can actually lower it to 100-200K, that's well worth staying at home for a while to save a million lives.
                          Steve

                          * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                          * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                          * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            take care of yourself guys and stay at home!

                            Comment


                              #15
                              COVID-19 Projections
                              The charts below show projected hospital resource use based on COVID-19 deaths.


                              The projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures.


                              https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

                              There is a drop down menu that lists resources by state. According to the current data, New York which will peak on Apr 9th (assuming strong social distancing measures and so on) and will be 58,564 beds short. (They already exceed the beds available). Can that be right for NY, though? The chart has only 13,010 beds available (which I am assuming does not include the temporary field hospitals, etc that have been built). Texas, on the other hand has 28,633 beds available (peaking on May 2nd) with no bed shortage. Even the states that seem to have enough beds--still looks like they need ventilators.

                              I wonder if the strategy is get enough ventilators to the states who peak first and then as the demand falls off, send them to other states who will peak later?

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