Impending gloom and doom

[dawnwes]

I try not to be an alarmist, but I also want to be prudent.

I keep reading about predictions of a recession "worse than 2008"

What are your thoughts? Is there any concern?

As we are looking at selling and either buying or renting a while first, we are wondering what might be the better choice.

[feh]

I try not to be an alarmist, but I also want to be prudent.

I keep reading about predictions of a recession "worse than 2008"

What are your thoughts? Is there any concern?

As we are looking at selling and either buying or renting a while first, we are wondering what might be the better choice.

Ignore the headlines. The US economy is in very good shape.

[bjl584]

I would ignore headlines. If you are investing for the longterm, then what you read about today will be totally forgotten about a few years from now. If you are DCA'ing your investments, then you are buying at a discount today.

[dawnwes]

I would ignore headlines. If you are investing for the longterm, then what you read about today will be totally forgotten about a few years from now. If you are DCA'ing your investments, then you are buying at a discount today.

For us, it is about home buying for the immediate future.

Yes, we plan to be there long term, BUT, one never knows if there will be transfers or moves that are sooner than we expect.

[Nutria]

Questions to answer before asking what you just asked:

• How secure is your job? Your spouse's?
• How disciplined of a spender & saver are you and your spouse?
• What's the COL where you are?
• Are house prices currently inflated in your area? (A recession would knock them down.)
• Are you currently saving for a down payment?
• Do you have an emergency fund?

[ua_guy]

I think events as reported by the media are worth paying attention to, and I too have noticed the downcast / gloomy predictions of forecasting analysts in general. But I don't think you should time your home purchase based on the media's negative outlook alone...

I think if those events are worrisome to you, maybe they are worth a deeper read to see what kind of impact they could have for you on a personal level or just for your home buying decision. How much weight do you really put into speculation about future recessions? Are you willing to let them dictate your life?

Nobody can predict the future. I think the only thing you can really do is go about your home buying as prepared as possible -- see Nutria's comments. Set yourself up for success, and realize that no matter what, the future is going to hold a lot of different ups and downs.

[rennigade]

Stock up on guns, gold and ammo. These 3 items will solve all of your problems.

Market goes up, market goes down. If you dont like it them shove your money under your mattress and get hammered from inflation.

[autoxer]

For us, it is about home buying for the immediate future.

Suppose the headlines are correct and there is an impending recession. How would you use that information with respect to your decision of buying vs. renting? Would you decide to rent, figuring that it'll be cheaper to buy after prices are depressed? Or would you decide to spend less to keep your cost of living down in case your income is affected? Conversely if you knew for certain there was an economic expansion ahead of us, would you spend more? I'm also planning to sell and buy a different house in the next year or two, because I want to be in a different school district, but I'm trying not to let the news media affect my decision.

I know for certain we are going to go through another recession, because the market is always cycling, but I wouldn't begin to try and predict when or how severe it will be.

[Fishindude77]

Recessions only badly hurt those who are highly leveraged. People that are cash flush improve their finances during recessions by purchasing undervalued assets, stock, real estate, etc.

I see lots of folks purchasing homes at the top end of their ability to cash flow, with minimal down payments, with very little additional savings, etc. all of the time. This isn't a good idea ever.

If you buy a home with a hefty down payment, that you can make the payments on even with a reduction in income, and you have a hefty emergency fund stashed away you should be able to do a home purchase and still weather a recession without too much hardship.

[97guns]

Everything is depreciation mode except for housing and food

[Nutria]

Everything is depreciation mode except for housing and food

And food is consumption mode...

[FLA]

I would ignore headlines. If you are investing for the longterm, then what you read about today will be totally forgotten about a few years from now. If you are DCA'ing your investments, then you are buying at a discount today.

exactly this

[dawnwes]

Stock up on guns, gold and ammo. These 3 items will solve all of your problems.

Market goes up, market goes down. If you dont like it them shove your money under your mattress and get hammered from inflation.

Not helpful at all.

[Nutria]

Not helpful at all.

Hopefully the part about guns, ammo & gold was facetious.

OTOH, he's absolutely right about sticking your money in a metaphorical mattress (CapitalOne 360 offers 12 month CDs paying 1.3%) if you have no stomach for short term loss.

Of course, (non-401k & 403b) investing is only for people with low debt and a good e-fund.

We're making hay while the sun shines: paying down the mortgage and growing various e-fund subcategories.

[dawnwes]

Everything is depreciation mode except for housing and food

Houses most certainly can be. People who have had to move during the downturn had a difficult time. Thankfully we didn't.