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Are We Really in a Recession? 5 Reasons We Are

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5 reasons we are in a recession

The economy is a bit of a mess right now, and there is a lot of debate over the title of what we are going through. Many say we are in a recession, while others are hesitant to use the term. There is a pretty dark connotation associated with the word “recession,” but we can’t let that keep us from the rational discussion.

It is vitally important that we are being straight with ourselves when it comes to the economy. We cannot recover unless we have an accurate picture of where things are now. So, what is the truth? While there are arguments on both sides, today we will argue in the affirmative. So, here are 5 reasons we are in a recession.

1. Textbook Definition

This one is pretty easy– the textbook definition of a recession may imply that we are in one. The typical definition taught to economists is that once the country has seen 2 consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP, we are in a recession. While we are still awaiting the data to prove this is the case, all signs point to that being the truth. The coronavirus pandemic along with the strong and inconsistent responses throughout the country have really thrown the economy into a downward spiral.

While the stock market has seemingly recovered, for the time being, job numbers continue to lag behind. When it comes to production, you need people working in order to grow the economy. There are really not too many ways around a dramatically diminished workforce. So, odds are that we will see those two consecutive quarters of GDP losses.

2. Massive Unemployment

The issues regarding unemployment have been historic in nature. As mentioned above, one of the most significant predictors of economic growth is the size of your workforce. Without people to produce, your overall production is obviously going to hurt. While these titanic unemployment figures are probably temporary, they still spell a certain level of doom for the time being.

3. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Prediction

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has a pretty upsetting prediction for the U.S. economy. Its shocking figure for a decrease in U.S. GDP is 40 percent. Again, it is important to address the obviously temporary reasoning for this, but it doesn’t make it any less relevant. A 40 percent decrease will be quite the hole for us to dig out of, but it definitely isn’t possible. Luckily, setting that low a bar means that expansion should be not too far behind.

4. National Bureau of Economic Research Declaration

The NBER is an authority when it comes to U.S. economics, and its declaration of a U.S. recession makes it all but official. It marks February 2020 as the peak of U.S. economic activity in regard to the expansion that started in 2009. This means that we have begun a recession, and we will officially be in that recession until we begin to see a consistent expansion of GDP. One can only hope that the next expansion lasts as long as the one before it, and it doesn’t take too long to get there.

5. We Aren’t Alone

The United States is not the only one reeling from this pandemic. Almost every country on the planet has been hit in a major way when it comes to economics. The World Bank states that beginning in 1870, the world has seen 14 global recessions. This one, it predicts, will be a pretty significant one to add to the list. While the U.S. is definitely unique, it would seem we are not exempt from the economic woes that affect the world-at-large.

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What Is an SBA Disaster Loan and How Do I Qualify for It?

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sba disaster loan

The Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL), also called the SBA Disaster Loan, is one of the measures that the government has taken to help businesses during the COVID-19 pandemic. New applications opened on June 15th. At that time, it became easier for certain businesses to qualify for the loan. In fact, even freelancers and other sole proprietors now qualify. Do you?

What is the SBA Disaster Loan?

The Small Business Administration offers a wide range of support and resources to small businesses. The SBA Disaster Loan is one of those resources.

First, there has to be a declared disaster. The COVID-19 pandemic is just one such example of a declared disaster. It has obviously impacted a large number of small businesses. Therefore, it’s exactly the type of situation that the loan helps remedy.

Once a disaster has been declared, small businesses can apply for assistance. In certain cases, SBA disaster loans also assist homeowners and renters whose property has been damaged. In the case of coronavirus, the damage is economic. Thus, the official name: Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL).

What is the COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan?

Through this program, small businesses can apply to receive economic relief. If you are a sole proprietor or small business owner who has suffered losses due to COVID-19, then you might qualify for this loan.

Who Qualifies for this SBA Disaster Loan?

When you apply for the loan, you’ll select your status from the following options

  • Agricultural business with 500 or less employees
  • Coops with 500 or less employees
  • Tribal small business
  • Other business with 500 or less employees
  • Other business with more than 500 employees that meets the SBA Size Standards for a small business
  • Private non-profit with IRS tax exemptions under certain code sections
  • Sole proprietor or independent contractor with or without employees

If you qualify as one of those businesses, and your work has been negatively impacted by coronavirus, then you might be able to get an SBA Disaster Loan.

There are certain things that can disqualify you. For example, if you are a primary business owner who owes unpaid child support, then you might get disqualified from receiving the loan.

What is the SBA Disaster Loan Advance?

One of the things that might feel a little bit confusing is that there is the loan itself then there is a loan advance. You can apply for loans of varying amounts. Additionally, you can also apply for a loan advance of up to $10,000. You apply for it at the same time that you apply for the primary loan.

Some small businesses qualify for this advance even if they are not approved for a loan. Moreover, the loan advance never needs to be repaid.

SBA Disaster Loan Terms

The entire point of this business loan is to support small businesses during economic tribulations. Therefore, the terms of the loan are excellent compared to private loans. Some of the details include:

  • Low interest rate (3.75% for businesses, 2.75% for non-profit organizations)
  • Long period of repayment, up to thirty years
  • First payment is deferred for one year after receiving the loan

Small businesses can use the loan to pay their employees, pay off business debt, and cover most other business expenses. The loan is different from the Paycheck Protection Program loan. If your business received that money, use that first to cover those costs. Then use the disaster loan for any payments still not covered.

The big change that’s happened with these new loan terms is that sole proprietors and freelance employees are now more likely to qualify for assistance. Have you tried to get an SBA Disaster Loan? Share your experience in the comments below.

NOTE: If you enjoy reading our blog posts and would like to try your hand at blogging, we have good news for you; you can do exactly that on Saving Advice. Just click here to get started. If you want to be able to customize your blog on your own domain and need hosting service, we recommend trying BlueHost. They offer powerful hosting services for $3.95/month!

Where Did My Stimulus Money Go? And Will We Get Another Payment?

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stimulus money

I mentioned recently that I had been wondering where my stimulus check was? I ended up receiving it in the mail. Apparently since I file my taxes through TurboTax, the government didn’t have my direct deposit information on file. I was grateful to receive that stimulus money. However, I live in the state of California. That money is already long gone. Here we are in a new month and, like many people across this nation, I’m wondering if we are going to receive another payment.

Stimulus Money Goes Further In Some States Than Others

As most of you are well aware, the government issued stimulus money for many citizens in response to the COVID-19 financial challenges. Individuals earning less than $99,000 (or couples earning less than $198,000 combined) were eligible to receive the first round of stimulus money. The amount was $1200 for many people with a smaller amount for those earning between $75,000 and $99,000. Parents received additional small payments per child.

I am grateful that I received that $1200. There are some people who still have not received that first stimulus check. I was lucky to get mine. I needed it for bills. But the fact is that $1200 goes a lot further in some places than in others. This money is supposed to help people pay their rent and other bills. My rent for my one-bedroom San Francisco apartment is nearly $1900. That’s a lot lower than it would be if I had moved into my place more recently; I’ve got rent control in a spot I’ve been in for over eight years. Nevertheless, you can do the math. $1200 in stimulus money left me $700 short of rent. It certainly didn’t leave anything for other critical bills.

The States Where Stimulus Checks Stretch Most and Least

I am fully aware that I live in one of the most expensive cities in the country. In fact, the cost of living is high across the whole state. In a report from USA Today, California ranked second in a list of places where stimulus money goes the least far. Other states where a $1200 stimulus check doesn’t even cover the average rent or mortgage payment include Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, and Hawaii.

In states where rents are lower, people can get by better with the $1200 (or $2400 for couples plus $500 per child). The five states where stimulus checks will stretch the furthest are Mississippi, Arkansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and South Dakota.

Will Americans Get More Stimulus Money?

The government acted quickly in the face of COVID-19 to get billions of dollars in checks out to American citizens. But, as the numbers above suggest, it might not be enough. Many people, particularly in states where the money doesn’t stretch so far, aren’t sure how to keep paying the bills. In states that continue to shelter-in-place, a large percentage of people simply can’t go to work. That leaves a lot of us wondering if Americans are going to get more stimulus money.

Chances Are That Yes, We Will Get Some Type of Help

There is a lot of conflicting news about whether or not we will receive additional stimulus money. Lawmakers are extremely divided about if, how, and when to release a second stimulus check. That said, most reports indicate that some type of additional assistance is likely in the near future.

Just what that looks like remains unclear. Generally speaking, Democratic leaders are in favor of issuing more stimulus money and doing so quickly. In contrast, Republican leaders are calling for a slower approach, releasing less money perhaps to fewer people. Overall, it’s starting to look like the next round of assistance may take a form other than a direct check to Americans.

Suggestions on the Table for More Stimulus Money

Here are some of the suggestions lawmakers are considering when it comes to giving Americans more stimulus money:

$2000 Per Month

Two different proposals exist that would give Americans earning less than a certain amount the right to receive $2000 checks every month:

  • California’s Ro Khanna and Ohio’s Tim Ryan are calling for anyone over age 16 earning less than $130,000 to receive a $2000 check every month during the pandemic
  • Michigan’s Rashida Tlaib and Washington’s Pramila Jayapal have proposed the Automatic Boost to Communities Act which would give every American $2000 per month throughout the duration of the pandemic. Moreover, it would give $1000 per month to every American for one year after the pandemic ends.

Many Americans would love to see these suggestions enacted. However, as of the writing of this post, Republican leaders aren’t on board with giving out this much new stimulus money. In fact, they don’t want to give out direct stimulus checks at all. Therefore, these monthly checks seem increasingly unlikely.

Stimulus Check Tied to Payroll Tax Cut

President Trump is calling for a payroll tax cut. In other words, he wants to give a tax break to businesses as part of the next round of COVID-era relief. Some reports indicate that he supports indicate that he may be willing to support a direct stimulus check to individuals (amount unknown) if it is tied to a payroll tax cut. Other reports indicate that he wants to discuss a payroll tax cut first, leaving the direct stimulus check out of the conversation.

Expanding Aid to States

Increasingly it seems that the conversation is turning towards expanding other aid programs including money from the federal government to the states. Even the Democrats are turning their attention to the immediate need for further assistance with food stamps and unemployment funding. Many argue that this money is as critical, if not more so, than a second stimulus check. Moreover, it’s likely to receive more support from Republicans than a call for more direct stimulus money.

What to Do While We Wait to Find Out More

Things are up in the air right now. We simply don’t know if we are going to get more stimulus money. We can’t count on it. So, what should we do in the meantime? If you are struggling to make ends meet during COVID-19, review all of your options for relief. Check with your lenders about mortgage forbearance, skipping a month of payments, and other hardship options. If you qualify, apply for unemployment assistance and food stamps. Hang in there. The lawmakers are working on it, despite the fact that they are divided on how to proceed.

 

Are Democracies Better At Fighting Outbreaks Like Coronavirus?

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Democracies better at fighting outbreaks

In short, yes. Democracies are better at fighting outbreaks, such as the coronavirus. As soon as the first cases of the virus were made known in America, health officials were immediately working to provide them with treatment. In China, many people are being quarantined with no treatment at all, leading to the deaths of hundreds of people. But why are democracies better at fighting outbreaks?

How China Handled the Outbreak

While it does seem democracies, like the United States, are better at fighting large-scale outbreaks, Chinese officials did everything they knew how to contain the virus. They quarantined entire cities, suspended travel, and closed schools and businesses. Officials also placed restrictions on citizens, making many of them stay indoors at all times.

Within 10 days of the outbreak being known to health officials, specialized hospitals were erected. They have also been able to keep close surveillance on the citizens to scale up any contact tracing. However, it just hasn’t been enough to fight the coronavirus off.

Are Democracies Better At Fighting Outbreaks?

As of now, there are 34 known cases of coronavirus in the U.S. Health officials in the states have been upfront with the citizens of the country to be sure they know potential warning signs of the virus. Anyone with the virus has also been quarantined.

This is the biggest advantage the U.S. and other democracies have compared to authoritarian governments, like China. When something like this happens, officials are able to provide full transparency. In China, on the other hand, officials tried to cover up how many cases of coronavirus there were. They also tried to hide how serious the epidemic was.

In addition to having transparency and the trust of the people, health officials in the U.S. also have the resources available to them to work on a vaccine or treatment. Because China underreported the number of cases, many health officials are tied up with treating current patients and disposing of those who have perished from the virus. The resources for developing vaccines or treatments just aren’t there.

Democracies also typically lead the world’s efforts in fighting such outbreaks. In 2014, the U.S. led other countries to stop the Ebola outbreak plaguing many African countries. President Barack Obama had 44 other countries join him in Washington, D.C. to establish the Global Health Security Agenda, which now consists of 67 nations.

They Don’t Do Everything Right Though

Although democracies typically handle outbreaks better than developing countries, they aren’t perfect. During the 2014 Ebola outbreak, a nurse was forced into quarantine in the Newark airport with no medical cause. She was only quarantined because she’d been to a country where the outbreak was occurring. However, when this happened, U.S. citizens stood up for their rights and developing new quarantine procedures only instilled even more trust in the public healthcare system.

In short, democracies are better at fighting outbreaks simply because they are able to be transparent and typically have more resources for developing treatments.

Do you agree? Are democracies better at fighting outbreaks? 

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How Will The New Budget Deal Impact Your Finances?

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new budget deal

According to a new HarrisX poll, 27 percent of Americans believe the new budget deal won’t have any direct impact on their finances, which is likely true. Here is what other Americans think about the deal and how it may impact the economy.

What Americans Think About The New Budget Deal

HarrisX surveyed 1,000 registered voters between July 27 and July 28 to get Americans’ thoughts on the latest budget deal. The poll also found that 14 percent of Americans think the deal would actually improve their finances, while 16 percent believe it will worsen their current financial situation.

Not all Americans have made up their mind regarding the latest two-year budget though. Around 42 percent reported they need more information before deciding how it will impact them. Fifty-one percent of independents who participated in the poll said they’d need more information. Some Democrats (41 percent) and Republicans (34 percent) felt the same way.

There is a small divide when it comes to political parties as well. Republicans were more likely to think that the newest budget deal would help improve their financial situation (24 percent). Only 14 percent of Democrats and 5 percent of independents reported believing that to be true.

Around 22 percent of Democrats polled said they thought the new budget deal would likely hurt their finances (compared to 12 percent of Republicans and 14 percent of independents).

About The Latest Two-Year Budget

The new budget deal is shooting to increase federal spending and borrowing limit over the next two years. According to The Hill, this includes raising military and domestic spending by more than $320 billion. President Trump signed it into law on Friday, despite resistance in the Senate. In fact, more than 20 Republican senators voted against it.

Many people opposing the deal argue it isn’t focusing on decreasing federal spending as we should be.  Even though spending is typically a good thing for the economy, the latest budget changes would add about $2 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years. The national debt has already increased by $2 trillion since Trump took office in 2017.

Final Thoughts

When it comes down to it, many of us won’t recognize any immediate (or large) impact on our finances. However, you may see increases in your taxes over time. Many people who are self-employed or those who are in a higher tax bracket may find they are paying more in than they have in past years.

But, when it boils down to it, many people won’t see a huge impact on our personal finances. The U.S. government, on the other hand, is continuing to increase the national debt. If this continues, our economy won’t be able to hang on for long.

Readers, what do you think about the new budget deal? How do you think it will impact your finances

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What the New Lower Federal Interest Rate Means

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What the New Lower Federal Interest Rate Means

Interest rates are going down. The Federal Reserve has reduced its federal interest rate by 0.25%. The overnight lending rate is the basis for lending between banks and affects the rates offered to consumers for various loans. The last rate cut was almost twelve years ago after the real estate bubble burst in 2008. Conversely, rates have been raised nine times in nearly four years.

What is the Federal Reserve?

The Federal Reserve, or the Fed, was created in 1913 to stabilize the financial system in the United States. It’s also known as the central bank of the US and one of the most powerful financial institutions in the world. The Fed controls the monetary policy for the US. Its mandate, set by Congress, is “maximum sustainable employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.” The Fed uses increasing and decreasing interest rates to combat the effects of inflation and stimulate the economy.

Reasons for the Decreased Federal Interest Rate

This latest reduction is said to mitigate global risk amid worsening relationships and trade concerns. The stock market and the current administration wanted a more significant decrease of 0.50%. The stock market reacted negatively to the news since lower rates present a weak economy. The S&P 500 decreased over 1%, to its lowest point in the last two months.

The Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, alluded to the possibility of more cuts. However, there are no long-term cuts planned. The rate decrease was to prepare for future economic uncertainties. The administration is not particularly happy with the initial reduction and blames Mr. Powell’s policy decisions for slow economic growth. However, unemployment has been low for quite some time, and inflation has been steady. Conservative decreases as a preventative measure may contribute to more prolonged results.

What It Means When Interest Rates are Low

Federal interest rates affect how much it costs to borrow debt. Consumers are more likely to make big purchases when rates are lower. The hope is that lower rates will decrease spending on debt and increase consumer spending elsewhere. Lower rates also incentivize businesses to take out loans for expansion, equipment, and other enterprising efforts. Rates usually are reduced when the economy is in a recession, so this an unusual situation. The economy is strong, yet the Fed decreased the rate. The Fed previously reduced the rate to combat recession in 2003. The rate was 1.25% then. The current rate range is 2 to 2.25%

If you’re looking to finance a property, a car, or business expenses, now may be the time to strike. Also, now be a great time to refinance. If you took out a loan within the last four year, when the rates were increasing, the lower rates might be especially appealing. You may see a significant reduction in your monthly payments or total interest paid over the life of your loan. However, don’t feel pressured to accrue unnecessary debt because rates are low. The economy and markets are cyclical. Stick to your goals and financial plan.

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