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Warren Buffett warns investors not to gamble on stocks

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  • Warren Buffett warns investors not to gamble on stocks

    Buffet - wise warning or just out of touch?

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    Warren Buffett warns investors not to gamble on stocks


    By JOSH FUNKyesterday

    FILE - In this May 5, 2019, file photo Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, smiles as he plays bridge following the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting in Omaha, Neb. Buffett will spend Saturday afternoon fielding questions at Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting, which is being held virtually. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik, File)

    OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Billionaire Warren Buffett warned people not to think investing is an easy way to make a fortune as he answered a variety of questions at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting Saturday.

    Buffett said it can be tough to pick the long-term winners. He pointed out that in 1903 there were more than 2,000 car companies, and nearly all of them failed even though cars have transformed the country since then.

    “There’s a lot more to picking stocks than figuring out what will be an incredible industry in the future,” said Buffett, who is known for his remarkably successful investing record. “I just want to tell you that it’s not as easy as it sounds.”

    Buffett has said that most people will fare better by owning an S&P 500 index fund instead of betting on individual stocks. He said many of the novice investors who jumped into the market recently and drove up the value of video game retailer GameStop are essentially gambling.

    Buffett said the stock trading platforms that allow people to buy and sell stocks for free, such as Robinhood, are only encouraging that gambling.

    Buffett spent several hours answering questions Saturday afternoon at an online version of Berkshire’s annual meeting alongside vice chairmen Charlie Munger, Greg Abel and Ajit Jain. The executives opined on a variety of topics at the meeting including:

    — Buffett said the policies of the Federal Reserve and the stimulus packages passed by Congress have done a tremendous job of propping up the economy and keeping interest rates low. He said the government clearly learned lessons from the Great Recession in 2009 and acted quickly in response to the pandemic, but it’s hard to predict the long-term consequences of those policies. “This economy right now — 85% of it is running in a super high gear — and you’re seeing some inflation and all that. It has responded in an incredible way,” Buffett said.

    — Munger openly questioned the value of cryptocurrencies. “I don’t welcome a currency that is so useful to kidnappers and extortionists and so forth,” Munger said. “Nor do I like shoveling out a few extra billions and billions and billions of dollars to somebody who just invented a new financial product out of thin air. I think I should say modestly that I think the whole damn development is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization.”

    — Buffett said he doesn’t regret selling off Berkshire’s $6 billion stake in all the major airlines last year even though those stocks have grown significantly since he sold them last spring. Buffett also said he thinks the airlines might not have been able to secure as much government aid as they have during the pandemic if they still had “a very rich major shareholder like us.”

    Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire is sitting on $145.4 billion in cash and short-term investments because Buffett has struggled to find major acquisitions for the company for several years.

    Investor Cole Smead said he would love to see the company get more active the next time the market swoons.

    “We do not question whether Buffett and Munger have patience. That’s obvious. The question is do they have any aggression. That’s not obvious,” Smead said.

    Buffett said he wants to invest more of Berkshire’s cash, but the current competition he faces from private equity and other investment funds has made it difficult for Berkshire to find reasonably priced acquisitions. And the 90-year-old said that a year ago, it was hard to predict how the economy would respond to the pandemic and all the government stimulus.

    This was the second year in a row that the annual meeting was held online because of the coronavirus pandemic. This year’s event was moved outside of Omaha for the first time — to Los Angeles to be near where the 97-year-old Munger lives.

    The meeting usually draws 40,000 to Omaha, filling a 18,300-seat arena and every nearby overflow room. No other company matches those crowds.

    Author Bob Miles said he misses “mingling with like-minded and self-selected shareholders” and talking with executives who run Berkshire subsidiaries who routinely spend part of the meeting in their company’s booth in the huge exhibit hall that adjoins the arena. Berkshire companies like Geico insurance, See’s Candy and Fruit of the Loom sell their products to shareholders each year.

    The fun of the meeting isn’t just for shareholders. Jim Weber, who runs Berkshire’s Brooks Running, said he longs for the chance to compare notes with fellow Berkshire managers at the one annual event that brings together the leaders of the decentralized conglomerate’s dozens of subsidiaries.

    “We certainly miss that opportunity to connect with our peers,” said Weber.

    On Saturday morning, Berkshire reported its first-quarter earnings and said it made $11.7 billion as the paper value of its investment portfolio rebounded from the depths of the coronavirus pandemic. A year earlier, Berkshire reported losing $49.7 billion.

    The conglomerate said that besides the investment gains, profit also improved at all of its major divisions — including insurance, utility, railroad, manufacturing and retail companies — as the economy continued to recover.

    CFRA Research analyst Cathy Seifert said she was surprised that Berkshire’s many economically sensitive businesses didn’t improve more given how much the economy has recovered, but the company controlled costs well.

    Buffett has long said Berkshire’s operating earnings offer a better view of quarterly performance because they exclude investments and derivatives, which can vary widely. By that measure, Berkshire’s operating earnings improved to $7.018 billion, or $4,577.10 per Class A share. That’s up from $5.87 billion, or $3,617.62 per Class A share a year ago.

    The four analysts surveyed by FactSet expected Berkshire to report operating earnings of $3,792.36 per Class A share.

    Berkshire continued its streak of major stock repurchases by investing $6.6 billion in its own stock during the quarter. The company spent $25 billion on repurchases last year. Seifert said investors will applaud the significant buybacks.

    Berkshire shareholders rejected proposals that would have required the company to publish annual reports on climate change and on the company’s efforts to improve diversity throughout Berkshire. Buffett, who controls nearly one-third of Berkshire’s stock, and the rest of the board opposed those measures largely because the company is decentralized and allows its subsidiaries to handle those issues themselves.

    Abel said during the meeting that Berkshire’s largest contributors to carbon dioxide emissions — its utilities and BNSF railroad — already publish annual reports on their efforts to reduce climate change and reduce their emissions over time.

    Berkshire Hathaway Inc. owns more than 90 companies, including the BNSF railroad and insurance, utility, furniture and jewelry businesses. The company also has major investments in such companies as Apple, American Express, Coca-Cola and Bank of America.

    Source: AP News.
    james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
    202.468.6043

  • #2
    James what about that would make you think he’s out of touch? Telling people not to gamble on stocks is great advice. The GameStop fiasco was a disgrace. That’s not investing in any way. It’s certainly not what Buffet is famous for.
    Steve

    * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
    * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
    * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by disneysteve View Post
      James what about that would make you think he’s out of touch? Telling people not to gamble on stocks is great advice. The GameStop fiasco was a disgrace. That’s not investing in any way. It’s certainly not what Buffet is famous for.
      Disneysteve, at it face, yes. Gambling is a bad habit.

      I'm mindful of an article that got posted here a few weeks ago - it was a piece by Annelise Capossela published in Axios (here).

      "... debt-encumbered Millennials found it hard to accumulate enough wealth to make such a strategy viable.".

      What the author of the piece was suggesting was that a passive "buy and hold strategy" doesn't necessarily make sense when economic conditions don't favor it. In other words, gambling by getting involved in Gamestop or Dogecoin is actually a rational decision when your realized earnings are likely to low for decades and you're young enough to be able to absorb potential losses.

      I wonder if Buffet has considered this. Its possible he hasn't.
      james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
      202.468.6043

      Comment


      • #4
        But that isn’t investing. It’s speculating, gambling if you will. It’s not based on any fundamental valuation of the companies whose stock you are buying. Folks can do that if they’d like. Buffet is just saying it’s not a smart idea.

        The GameStop situation wasn’t people who thought the value of the company was high. It was complete market manipulation. The price was driven up on purpose with no connection to the true value of the company.
        Steve

        * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
        * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
        * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by disneysteve View Post
          But that isn’t investing. It’s speculating, gambling if you will. It’s not based on any fundamental valuation of the companies whose stock you are buying. Folks can do that if they’d like. Buffet is just saying it’s not a smart idea.

          The GameStop situation wasn’t people who thought the value of the company was high. It was complete market manipulation. The price was driven up on purpose with no connection to the true value of the company.
          No disagreement here. What's missing from Buffets comments is the broader context of when speculation makes rational sense.
          james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
          202.468.6043

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by james.hendrickson View Post

            No disagreement here. What's missing from Buffets comments is the broader context of when speculation makes rational sense.
            I would not expect to hear Buffet give speculation advice. That’s not his thing.
            Steve

            * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
            * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
            * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by disneysteve View Post
              I would not expect to hear Buffet give speculation advice. That’s not his thing.
              Agreed, and I respect the man for his stability. Berkshire Hathaway (B-shares, obviously) were one of the very first individual stocks I ever purchased, because the company is careful & deliberate in finding good companies to invest in (or acquire), and very infrequently misses. It's not explosive growth, but it's steady. BRK basically acts like a value mutual fund. 10 years later, I still purchase a few new shares every so often.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

                I would not expect to hear Buffet give speculation advice. That’s not his thing.
                James Altucher has an excellent book out which examines some of Buffet's earlier career. Its called Trade Like Warren Buffet. Its based on a comprehensive review of whats been written about the guy. In it, Altucher indicatesd that:

                "Buffett achieved much of his early success from arbitrage techniques, short-term trading, liquidations, and so on rather than using the techniques that he became famous for with stocks like Coca-Cola or Capital Cities." (p.3)

                Here is a list of trades Berkshire Hathaway held for four years or less:




                Altucher's book is here.

                https://books.mec.biz/tmp/books/6UOY...6FCNKYJ3VS.pdf

                Not to criticize anyone here - Buffet has made more money than most 99.% of Americans, but there is far more to his investing story than simply "buy and hold value investing".
                james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
                202.468.6043

                Comment


                • #9
                  Sound advice, picking individual stick winners isn’t easy. This feels like 99 when a lot of people were doing the same thing and then came the correction, it will happen again.

                  The gov this time is willing to go into a lot more debt to prevent that but it can’t last forever.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Jordan53 View Post
                    Sound advice, picking individual stick winners isn’t easy. This feels like 99 when a lot of people were doing the same thing and then came the correction, it will happen again.

                    The gov this time is willing to go into a lot more debt to prevent that but it can’t last forever.
                    The Feds have been spending money they don't have for decades. Who knows whats going to happen?
                    james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
                    202.468.6043

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by james.hendrickson View Post

                      The Feds have been spending money they don't have for decades. Who knows whats going to happen?
                      Yes they have, but there's deficit spending and then there's drunk sailor deficit spending. The U.S. takes in around $4.7 trillion each year from taxpayers. Trump's federal budget for 2021 was $4.82 trillion. Obviously a deficit.

                      But after Biden's various "stimulus" (debt) spending, the projected deficit for this year alone is now $3.4 trillion.

                      Source: https://www.crfb.org/blogs/new-budge...icits-and-debt

                      So imagine that you earn $100,000 a year in take-home pay, but you decide that, this year, you're going to spend $172,000. Sound like a good plan?

                      There are 122 million households in the U.S., so that's $27,869 per household for federal debt JUST THIS YEAR. But...there are 46.6 million US households that pay zero income tax. So that leaves the other 75.4 million households to shoulder that debt. That makes it $45,093 per household for the rest of us. Just this year.

                      "Pay your fair share in taxes!" Pay my fair share? Hell, I'm already paying 36 percent. How about a few dollars from the 46.6 million who don't pay a single dime?

                      Meanwhile, I can't get employees to work for me because we are all paying them to sit at home, and make more than they could working!

                      What part of this is sound fiscal policy? And the biggest irony in this crap show, is that these stimulus plans are called the "Jobs Plan", the "Rescue Plan", and the "Families" Plan.

                      This country has gone nuts.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by TexasHusker View Post

                        This country has gone nuts.
                        Whats the term? Clown world?
                        james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
                        202.468.6043

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by james.hendrickson View Post

                          Whats the term? Clown world?
                          if it was funny, yes.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by TexasHusker View Post

                            Yes they have, but there's deficit spending and then there's drunk sailor deficit spending. The U.S. takes in around $4.7 trillion each year from taxpayers. Trump's federal budget for 2021 was $4.82 trillion. Obviously a deficit.

                            But after Biden's various "stimulus" (debt) spending, the projected deficit for this year alone is now $3.4 trillion.

                            Source: https://www.crfb.org/blogs/new-budge...icits-and-debt

                            So imagine that you earn $100,000 a year in take-home pay, but you decide that, this year, you're going to spend $172,000. Sound like a good plan?

                            There are 122 million households in the U.S., so that's $27,869 per household for federal debt JUST THIS YEAR. But...there are 46.6 million US households that pay zero income tax. So that leaves the other 75.4 million households to shoulder that debt. That makes it $45,093 per household for the rest of us. Just this year.

                            "Pay your fair share in taxes!" Pay my fair share? Hell, I'm already paying 36 percent. How about a few dollars from the 46.6 million who don't pay a single dime?

                            Meanwhile, I can't get employees to work for me because we are all paying them to sit at home, and make more than they could working!

                            What part of this is sound fiscal policy? And the biggest irony in this crap show, is that these stimulus plans are called the "Jobs Plan", the "Rescue Plan", and the "Families" Plan.

                            This country has gone nuts.
                            I agree it’s the scope of the deficit spending at this point, pure madness. Also having difficulty finding workers with the stimulus checks and extra unemployment benefits, I don’t think it gets better until after the summer.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              A really interesting article, but it's sad that it is 2018 and there is no such article for 2020. The situation with quarantine has changed quite a lot and I would like to know how best to act now. I don't really understand much about forex trading or stocks, so I'm very afraid of losing everything at once. Before that, I loved playing in the casino very much. But at some point I stopped liking being in a casino, there are too many unpleasant people in such places. So I switched to an online casino, but I was much less lucky in it than in a regular one. In leading sportsbook, I read that playing in such services mainly leads to the loss of money, so I stopped playing in an online casino. Now I'm thinking of trying something new and that's why I decided to take up forex trading and stocks.
                              Last edited by michaelshah; 06-28-2021, 04:14 AM.

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