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T-bills vs. CDs
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Rates are getting into that weird territory where short term rates are going up faster than long rates. That is flattening the yield curve. If the yield curve inverts, we should expect a recession. And that is the MO of the FED these days. Raise rates until they induce a recession.
The short term result is short term treasuries yielding higher than CD's. And the risk associated with longer term bonds in a rising rate environment are not worth the yield premium.
I keep my short term money in a treasury money market fund with a 30 day SEC yield of 1.86%. All my bonds are in medium duration bond funds (5-7 years). While the bond fund NAV has been perfectly flat for 2018, they are yielding a solid 3.46%. People get all excited when the NAV on a bond fund goes down when interest rates rise. Be patient. The total return will normalize that.
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Originally posted by Nutria View PostT-bills, or a t-bill fund? And how much does their commission reduce your yield?
I believe the other large brokers offer the same deal.
Because the premium is so low on longer duration bills and notes, I'm only buying as a substitute for money market funds right now. If the yield curve inverts, there is a strong chance of a recession and it looks like that might happen.
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For anyone interested, you can open an account at Treasury Direct and buy T-Bills (and other Treasuries) directly:
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I've always been curious about T-Bills (and the various other 'flavors' of federal debt), but thus far I've only worked with their bonds (I love my I-Bonds). Maybe this is as good an opportunity as any to actually try to learn some more about it.......
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