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This Is What Conviction Looks Like If You Want To Beat The Market

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    #16
    I don't know if it's black and white if even the other companies aren't going to compete. Tesla doesn't have workers unions that's plaging the other car makers. That's where a lot of money is being wasted is the labor and unions. And we are comparing Toyota being dumb and insisting on gas/hybrid cars. When will they realize that electric is better and work at quickly changing the course? I"m not sure.

    Trust me expensive cars are still Niche cars. And people buying the 3 and Y are they the type to change it ever 3 years? That's where things will be interesting. I'm not sure. I do think tesla will lead the market but that doens't mean other's won't take bigger share faster.
    LivingAlmostLarge Blog

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      #17
      Originally posted by LivingAlmostLarge View Post
      I don't know if it's black and white if even the other companies aren't going to compete. Tesla doesn't have workers unions that's plaging the other car makers. That's where a lot of money is being wasted is the labor and unions. And we are comparing Toyota being dumb and insisting on gas/hybrid cars. When will they realize that electric is better and work at quickly changing the course? I"m not sure.

      Trust me expensive cars are still Niche cars. And people buying the 3 and Y are they the type to change it ever 3 years? That's where things will be interesting. I'm not sure. I do think tesla will lead the market but that doens't mean other's won't take bigger share faster.
      You have to understand how supply chain and contracts work. You can't just switch drive trains and platforms and drop the other one overnight and expect magic to happen the next day, or even the next three years. Contracts are signed, supplies are spoken for, and you can't get out of your ICE drive train materials contract if you wanted to without burning a few bridges that took decades to build. It's a very hard ship to turn around and hence even as Tesla eats the lunch of these automakers, their 2025 production numbers are pathetic compared to their ice production because they don't have the money to lock in a million cars worth of production capacity while dropping supply chain partners/workers/talent from this other side.

      I'm here eating popcorn watching the slow motion train wreck. It's not a matter of "oh man who knew, people want EVs, we were blind sighted but not anymore!" It's a matter of flipping everything you do upside down with hundreds of factories required to be destroyed and rebuilt. Any retrofitting efforts make your cars uncompetitive as we have seen. Also this means you have to fight for battery contracts like yesterday. BYD and Tesla are going hard collecting contracts and also having plans to scale their ramp. Toyota and Honda are still sitting in a house on fire saying "this is fine ".

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