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Battery Day Expectations For TSLA Shareholders

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    Battery Day Expectations For TSLA Shareholders

    I know many here became TSLA shareholders due to all the hysteria of the split or S&P announcement. Those events are fundamentally irrelevant to Tesla Inc. It may only be relevant to short term stock prices which is fine if you are in for the short term gain.

    Tesla Drivetrain and Battery day is on Sept 22nd. This will be the single most important event in Tesla's history. To understand why, please refer to Tesla' mission statement, which is to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. This is the goal of Tesla and Elon. We know Elon is laser focused on his mission, and does not disguise his company under some noble mission just to make money.

    Many may not know, Tesla does not make their own battery cells. Panasonic is their main partner, but have also sourced cell from LG and CATL in China for car production. Understand the RATE LIMITED STEP to Tesla's mission is battery cell manufacturing. All this talk about competition, or even Tesla's own internal guidance for growth DOES NOT MATTER because there are NOT ENOUGH CELLS to displace even 5% of all ICE cars.

    The purpose of Tesla battery day is for Tesla to demonstrate their brand new cell production line. An image has leaked and confirmed to be Tesla made cell. This cell is almost 6 times bigger than their current cell from Panasonic. Tesla also acquired Maxwell which helps reduce cell manufacturing time by 20% and increase longevity of the cell.

    In summary, this cell to pack(meaning building battery cells and packaging them to form the skateboard battery) dubbed "road runner" line of production can potentially increase overall production by a factor of 10. Then Tesla will scale multiples of this line of cells and give us the roadmap to 2 terawatt hours worth of cell production/year. As a sense of scale, the entire world cell production for 2019 was 1/2 a terawatt (this includes all consumer electronics like for laptops and cell phones as well).

    Not even talking about the advancements of the new Tesla cells (which is probably going to be about 25% more dense per wt and last a million miles), this level of production will enable Tesla's production to grow 50% yoy for the next decade. This will also drive the cost of the cars way down as Tesla may also show off their additional manufacturing and production process of cars/solar/gigafactories. If you guys haven't realized, Tesla have even improved how they build factories, as giga Berlin is currently ahead of giga Shanghai!

    Sept 22nd is the birth of Tesla 2.0. It will be the game changing moment and demonstrating how Tesla can complete the mission at hand. This is the result of stagnant innovation from other auto companies and cell production companies to which has forced Tesla's hand. Just 4 years ago, Elon was really banking on other companies would follow by building cell production plants and increase manufacturing process to make the transition faster. Years later, Elon has lost faith in other company's ability and can only take matters into their own hands as time is the essence.

    So when thinking about Tesla, please do not think of it as just a car company. It's a mission driven company determined to transition our world off fossil fuel. This means you will see the price of solar, batteries, storage stations, and Tesla cars to drop in prices while maintaining high margins beyond what is thought to be possible. Money talks so it's the only way.
    Last edited by Singuy; 09-16-2020, 03:53 PM.

    #2
    Originally posted by Singuy View Post
    Tesla cars to drop in prices
    Do you actually thing Tesla will lower the price of their existing cars? Or is it more that they might come out with a lower priced model?
    Steve

    * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
    * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
    * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

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      #3
      Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

      Do you actually thing Tesla will lower the price of their existing cars? Or is it more that they might come out with a lower priced model?
      All of the above. They will keep lowering prices until everyone is on electric. Their cash cow is actually software and cheap manufacturing.

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        #4
        Im still not touching it with a 10' pole unless it becomes part of the s&p 500. I am hoping that the stock skyrockets though and tesla keeps innovating.

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          #5
          I'm assuming all this increase in cell size and efficiencies gained in production time will lead to a longer battery life and more range for the car?

          Brian

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            #6
            Originally posted by bjl584 View Post
            I'm assuming all this increase in cell size and efficiencies gained in production time will lead to a longer battery life and more range for the car?
            More range, faster charging, eliminate battery degradation, and cheaper cars(or higher margins). More importantly it can reduce the price of power walls or enable vehicle to grid which enables the ability for houses to become virtual power plants, selling and buying stored energy from each other vs from the grid. Tesla already piloted this in Australia and have developed the software for this called autobidder.

            Total addressable market is multiple trillions depending on how fast Tesla can get these batteries produced.
            Last edited by Singuy; Yesterday, 07:36 AM.

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