Long-term Treasuries the best investment???

[Nutria]

Hi,

Hopefully this link works works for you like it did for me.

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/list?view=avgann&sort=name&sortorder=asc#/mutual-funds/asset-class/cumulative-returns

It appears to show that over the past 10 years, Vanguard's VUSTX (Long-Term Treasury Fund) fund handily crushes all but a handful of equity funds.

Part of it has to be periodic stock market crashes. What else?

[corn18]

We are in the midst of the longest bond bull market in history. When interest rates go down, bond funds go up. You'll notice the recent returns are much lower than the 10 year returns. That's because interest rates have held near zero for a long while now. Talk to us in 10 years after interest rates rise again (if they ever do). Best bonds can do right now is stay flat. I am happy with my 60/40 mix right now even with all the grousing about bonds and interest rates. When my equities dropped 20% last year, my bonds stayed flat. That works for me.

[feh]

Hi,

Hopefully this link works works for you like it did for me.

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/list?view=avgann&sort=name&sortorder=asc#/mutual-funds/asset-class/cumulative-returns

It appears to show that over the past 10 years, Vanguard's VUSTX (Long-Term Treasury Fund) fund handily crushes all but a handful of equity funds.

Part of it has to be periodic stock market crashes. What else?

A couple thoughts:

• don't look at 10 year periods of time; they aren't informative (especially when they include the worst recession in 80 years)
• as Tom mentions, we've seen an extraordinary bull run for bonds; it will not continue

[Nutria]

A couple thoughts:
don't look at 10 year periods of time; they aren't informative (especially when they include the worst recession in 80 years)

Worse than the late 70s/early 80s?

as Tom mentions, we've seen an extraordinary bull run for bonds; it will not continue

If interest rates are flat, shouldn't bond prices be flat?

[feh]

Worse than the late 70s/early 80s?

Yes.

If interest rates are flat, shouldn't bond prices be flat?

Yes, but conventional thinking is that rates will rise over the next several years.

At any rate, the chances of rates decreasing are pretty small, which means bond prices will not continue to rise.

Of course, nobody knows for sure. But US Treasury rates are at/near historical lows.

[tripods68]

Hi,

Hopefully this link works works for you like it did for me.

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/list?view=avgann&sort=name&sortorder=asc#/mutual-funds/asset-class/cumulative-returns

It appears to show that over the past 10 years, Vanguard's VUSTX (Long-Term Treasury Fund) fund handily crushes all but a handful of equity funds.

Part of it has to be periodic stock market crashes. What else?

This link is really good. Very helpful information!