Are there people who consistently beat the market?

[bjl584]

Statistically speaking, yes, but is it due to skill or just luck?

The longer you look out, the harder it becomes to beat the indexes.

[myrdale]

I love a quote from Warren Buffett; "Some guys read Playboy, I read stock reports".

If you're just picking stocks at random, you're results are going to match.

All of my investments are in mutual funds which have had good returns over the past 10-20 years. There are far better returns to be had though, but without having the time and effort to put into the the average person isn't going to fair well.

There is a statistic that I've seen in the past that only 5% of hedge fund managers consistently beat the market. But then again if you gather 1,000 people together and gave them each a quarter, statistically speaking only 1 of them will flip heads 10 times in a row!

[ua_guy]

Skill/luck, sure, but I think the biggest factor is taking higher risks and the ability to be resilient when actual losses happen. Most people aren't willing to do that with retirement savings. Look at venture capitalists. They might invest in companies and 20 of them might fold, totaling hundreds of millions of dollars lost. It's that one billion dollar valuation which sets them up for the next venture.

[Chevelle72]

Honestly, it's mostly luck that gets hyped up as skill. Find me someone who beat the S&P for 20 years straight, and I'll find you a fund manager who just got super lucky with the tech boom.
It's a statistical anomaly when it happens. The longer you look, the harder it is, just like the OP said. Just index and relax, man.