What are your thoughts on this?

[skives]

Just wondering if anyone has watched this video and what your thoughts are on his views?

https://youtu.be/3u7kDfEtKfs

[Tabs]

That video is too long, but Peter Schiff in general is a reputable academic whose data mining lead to his accurate prediction of the housing market crash back around 2009 or so.

Since then, he's gotten some media traction about other possible bear markets along the way, including a possible bubble burst regarding a student loan bubble burst. At the end of the day though, nobody knows what the future holds. Many will try to predict it, and some will end up being right, while others will end up being wrong. All I know is that, regardless what the future holds, we can only do our best to be prepared to weather these potential financial storms.

Also, I am a fan of Joe Rogan and his podcasts, but again, this one is too long for me to listen to right now.

Is there something more specific you have in mind?

[skives]

That video is too long, but Peter Schiff in general is a reputable academic whose data mining lead to his accurate prediction of the housing market crash back around 2009 or so.

Since then, he's gotten some media traction about other possible bear markets along the way, including a possible bubble burst regarding a student loan bubble burst. At the end of the day though, nobody knows what the future holds. Many will try to predict it, and some will end up being right, while others will end up being wrong. All I know is that, regardless what the future holds, we can only do our best to be prepared to weather these potential financial storms.

Also, I am a fan of Joe Rogan and his podcasts, but again, this one is too long for me to listen to right now.

Is there something more specific you have in mind?

Yeah that is a long video. the las 30-60 minutes hold the meat and potatoes of the conversation.

I was just curious if anyone thought a upcoming recession would be as bad as he thinks it will be.

Also wondering what people can do to avoid big losses in our 401ks if it does happen.

[rennigade]

I enjoy listening to Peter although he has a real difficult time answering questions that Joe asked...with a simple answer.

Joe would ask him a question...then he rambles for 10 minutes...Joe asks again...another 5 minute ramble...rinse/repeat...then he finally gave an answer. It happened a lot during this interview.

Either way...I think the real issue is Rogan hasnt had an interview in 6 days now. Either he's on vacation or Jamie is slipping. Thankfully coco over at the church came to the rescue and had bobby lee on.

Y

Also wondering what people can do to avoid big losses in our 401ks if it does happen.

There probably isnt much you can do. If what Peter says actually comes true...its going to be a rough time. He kept pushing gold...which seems like a conflict of interest considering he is chairman of Schiff Gold...and he does stuff with goldmoney. That was also uncomfortable...listening to that for 50 minutes.

[disneysteve]

I haven't listened and don't plan to.

Will there be a recession? Of course there will.

Is gold the answer? Of course not. And I certainly wouldn't take my gold "investing" advice from someone who runs a gold fund/company.

Is there anything you can do to protect yourself? Absolutely. The same stuff you should always do. Have a pre-determined asset allocation that matches your investment goals, timeline, and risk tolerance. Invest on a regular basis over time in a well-balanced portfolio. Rebalance as needed when your allocation gets out of whack. Don't try to time the market, but don't ignore it either. Be aware of what is going on and make strategic tweaks as you see fit.

[rennigade]

I think Peter is correct that the next bubble with be student loans. This video basically sums up what he's talking about...just listen to the first minute where he speaks. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJzBGNQbHwc

Government guarantees student loans to anyone...which means colleges charge enormous fees since people can borrow all the money they want. If the government would never have given out loans...less and less people could afford to go to college...thus forcing college to lower tuition so more people could go. Now that students have all this debt that never goes away...someone will eventually have to foot the bill...because the very people that borrowed it cant pay it back. Thats the jist.

[corn18]

Quantitative tightening + GDP growth + inflation + strong dollar = something is going to happen.

I am going to follow my written Investment Policy Statement (IPS).

"Asset Allocation (AA): 60% stocks / 40% bonds with 25% of stocks international

Rebalance when AA gets outside of 5% or annually

Invest in very low cost index funds"

If the market goes up, down or sideways, I will do that. Rudder amidships, steady as she goes.

[Thrif-t]

I think Peter is correct that the next bubble with be student loans. This video basically sums up what he's talking about...just listen to the first minute where he speaks. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJzBGNQbHwc

Government guarantees student loans to anyone...which means colleges charge enormous fees since people can borrow all the money they want. If the government would never have given out loans...less and less people could afford to go to college...thus forcing college to lower tuition so more people could go. Now that students have all this debt that never goes away...someone will eventually have to foot the bill...because the very people that borrowed it cant pay it back. Thats the jist.

I found that video interesting and while I side with Peter's thinking, I also think that girl(sorry didn't pay attention to who she was) has some points. I do think for the greater good of society it is better to have an EDUCATED SOCIETY.

What's happening today is we've lost our work ethic. No one wants to work and earn things. Yes college is expensive, but nobody can think outside the box and make it happen for them. There are ways!

I've went thru my families plan b4 how we afforded it for 3 kids; they take a year in hs free through college credit plus, they get merit aid, that after 4 years = a year tuition, we saved up to pay a year, and they save up or took loans to pay a year.

Now if you don't live by a college then I get it, you can't follow this plan. I realize not everyone is as lucky as we are to have multiple colleges and universities within commuting distance, but for MOST kids this could be the plan. It's not rocket science people, but it does require you to be organized and put a plan together ahead of time. But even that is just too much work for people.

My next idea is to open an account, either 529 or investment account when you have a baby, even if you only put $25/mo to start, that will at least grow to be almost 10k at the end of 19 years with a 5%return (most kids don't start school till 6 today so you get an extra year to save!) But people can't even be bothered with that. Just lazy

[corn18]

Keep an eye on real estate. A recession might be a good time to snag some cheap property.

[disneysteve]

Keep an eye on real estate. A recession might be a good time to snag some cheap property.

It certainly was last time. I'm still kicking myself. I had the opportunity to buy a condo near Disney World for about 20K after the crash but chickened out. I'll be on the prowl for sure if prices plummet like that again.

[Singuy]

The guy just rambles on and contradicts himself at every turn. He claims the jobless rate is much much higher than the data suggest, but then talk about how increase inflation is a concern currently. So it must be all closet unemployed who are buying goods causing inflation to rise....

[Nutria]

If the government would never have given out loans...less and less people could afford to go to college...thus forcing college to lower tuition so more people could go.

Universities are not Walmart.

[disneysteve]

If the government would never have given out loans...less and less people could afford to go to college...thus forcing college to lower tuition so more people could go.

Universities are not Walmart.

It is certainly true that unlimited borrowing availability has given colleges free rein to hike prices. That benefits students in some ways, because it allows schools to build world class campuses and facilities. The flip side, however, is that it leads to more and more students graduating with ridiculous amounts of debt.

When I went to college (1982-86), my school was around $7,500/yr when I started and got up to about $10,300 my senior year. I knew quite a few people who worked their way through between a summer job and a part time job during the school year.

Today, that very same college is well over $50,000/year. Good luck finding a summer job and an after school job that will allow you to work your way through that. You either need rich parents or lots of loans.

Of course, the campus looks dramatically different today. There is a gorgeous new athletic facility, a new football stadium, a natatorium (pool), several new academic buildings, a couple of new dorms, a greatly enhanced theater, a dining hall that rivals many restaurants, etc. When I was there, it was all pretty basic - and the cost was affordable.

So yes, loose lending (government and especially private lenders) has fed that trend.

[Nutria]

It is certainly true that unlimited borrowing availability has given colleges free rein to hike prices. That benefits students in some ways, because it allows schools to build world class campuses and facilities. The flip side, however, is that it leads to more and more students graduating with ridiculous amounts of debt.

[snip]

So yes, loose lending (government and especially private lenders) has fed that trend.

Everything you've written is true, and explains very well why tuitions have increased. But it doesn't justify @rennigade's assertion that restricting student loans would force universities to lower tuition.

[disneysteve]

Everything you've written is true, and explains very well why tuitions have increased. But it doesn't justify @rennigade's assertion that restricting student loans would force universities to lower tuition.

Gotcha. I was missing your point.

I think colleges would be in a tough spot if lending dried up. They've built these beautiful facilities with all of that borrowed money. What happens if that money goes away? They'd have to lower tuition to keep students coming, but they'd also have to cut back on programs and services that they've added because they would no longer have the money to support them. I'm not so sure that would be a bad thing, but it wouldn't be pretty.