French Sending Troops To Ukraine, Are You Investing?

[james.hendrickson]

All,

So the media isn't saying much about this - but it looks like French are going to send up to 20,000 men to Ukraine.

Here is the summary:

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-31924-french-military-openly

and a review from politico that basically verifies what the review is saying:

https://www.politico.eu/article/im-right-about-not-being-specific-macron-says-doubling-down-on-strategic-ambiguity/

If they do send troops, it means its only a matter of time before the French military starts taking casualties and accordingly before they invoke Article 5 of NATO.

Are any of you guys planning trading this? Or investing to take advantage of this potential situation?

[ua_guy]

No, I generally don't invest on fake news.

I'd totally believe France has troops ready to deploy to Ukraine if it wanted to. Just like the US probably does, and other NATO allies of France, just the same.

[kork13]

If entirely factual & happened as you describe, that would be incredibly foolish.

First thing I'll point out, however, is that the first link is highly inflammatory & borderline misinformation. James, I strongly suggest not getting sucked into trash information like that, and would encourage you to remove the link to prevent others from doing the same.

Second, the Politico link (far more reliable, though not entirely impartial) merely says that Macron wouldn't rule out the possibility of sending forces into Ukraine. Especially in the parlance of international relations, that's almost the grandstanding equivalent of a non-denial denial. It gives the public an impression that they're willing to do something without actually committing to anything.

Finally, I'm not interested in trying to make a profit for myself off of war ... Let alone a war that could engulf the region if not much of the world. Maybe it's just that I'm in the military myself, and would have my friends & peers in the thick of such a conflict if it expanded such as to require direct NATO involvement. As it is, I already have dozens of my friends parked on the Polish border. I'm not profiteering off of such chaos & misery.

[disneysteve]

I don’t alter my investing approach based on the news or world events or pretty much anything else. I’ve just stayed on track for the past 30+ years and it has paid off brilliantly. What’s on TV today or tomorrow or next week should have no impact on your investing.

[james.hendrickson]

If entirely factual & happened as you describe, that would be incredibly foolish.

First thing I'll point out, however, is that the first link is highly inflammatory & borderline misinformation. James, I strongly suggest not getting sucked into trash information like that, and would encourage you to remove the link to prevent others from doing the same.

Second, the Politico link (far more reliable, though not entirely impartial) merely says that Macron wouldn't rule out the possibility of sending forces into Ukraine. Especially in the parlance of international relations, that's almost the grandstanding equivalent of a non-denial denial. It gives the public an impression that they're willing to do something without actually committing to anything.

Finally, I'm not interested in trying to make a profit for myself off of war ... Let alone a war that could engulf the region if not much of the world. Maybe it's just that I'm in the military myself, and would have my friends & peers in the thick of such a conflict if it expanded such as to require direct NATO involvement. As it is, I already have dozens of my friends parked on the Polish border. I'm not profiteering off of such chaos & misery.

Kork- if you have friends parked on the border with Poland, what makes you think the French WON'T go in? Or the US for that matter? The reality is the Ukrainians are losing men and territory every day. To me, it seems silly to assume there won't be broader consequences.

[james.hendrickson]

I don’t alter my investing approach based on the news or world events or pretty much anything else. I’ve just stayed on track for the past 30+ years and it has paid off brilliantly. What’s on TV today or tomorrow or next week should have no impact on your investing.

Why assume capital markets have a consistent and constant upward bias? Black swan events can and do happen.

[disneysteve]

Why assume capital markets have a consistent and constant upward bias?.

I never said that. The market goes up and down, and world events do play a part. But for the history of the market, the long term trend has always been upward and there's no reason to think that's going to change. Of course black swan events happen. Pearl Harbor. 9/11. Assassinations. Wars. Recessions. The list goes on and on. But look back at what the market has done over the past 100 years despite all of those things.

Market timing doesn't work. It doesn't matter what reason or excuse you are using for your market timing efforts. You're going to fail. You're going to under-perform the investors who invest regularly and consistently over time no matter what is happening in the world at any given time. Could a broader war in Ukraine temporarily impact the market? Sure. Is that a reason to change your investment strategy? Absolutely not.

[scfr]

Kork- if you have friends parked on the border with Poland, what makes you think the French WON'T go in? Or the US for that matter? The reality is the Ukrainians are losing men and territory every day. To me, it seems silly to assume there won't be broader consequences.

I don't think that is at all what kork13 said.

[bjl584]

What would your investing strategy be for this if it actually happened James?

I don't see this happening, BTW.
Aide will continue to be in the form of weapons, money, and food/medical supplies.
I don't see boots on the ground any time soon.

I don't think I could be an opportunist and try to profit from the horrors of war anyway.

[myrdale]

I still don't know what to make of this whole situation.

By my understanding, Russia is clearly in the wrong. That said, I am still amazed Russia hasn't finished the invasion by now. We're talking about a country the size of Mississippi, Alabama, & Georgia combined.

I'm just waiting, not in the hopeful sense, for someone to do something really stupid and we find out how bad things can really get.

[Saakasports]

Yeah, investing during military action is like walking on thin ice. The markets can go haywire real quick.