does most people hear bet on the playoffs?

[QuarterMillionMan]

Speaking of lavish spending my colleague said he & his wife spent $2000 to see a concert at the Las Vegas sphere last month (I think it was U-2 but I could be wrong). That's my rent for 2 months, lol.

[disneysteve]

Speaking of lavish spending my colleague said he & his wife spent $2000 to see a concert at the Las Vegas sphere last month (I think it was U-2 but I could be wrong). That's my rent for 2 months, lol.

Concert tickets have gotten insane. I hear people at work talk about it sometimes. I just keep my mouth shut when an $18/hr tech is talking about the concert he and his girlfriend went to for $300/person (and he paid for both tickets). That's a week's pay, and just for the tickets. Then there's a bridge toll and parking and food and drink and maybe a program or t-shirt or other souvenirs and he's probably into it for $800+ by the time he's done.

And I know that really big name performers cost even more, like $500-$1,000 per person. I feel bad enough spending $150 for a ticket to a Broadway show.

[QuarterMillionMan]

In Frostedmoose's defense, we only see $23,000 bet on sports as an all or nothing proposition. But it's far from what we think. Frostedmoose has these bets among other bets on players as well;

Cleveland -2.5
over 44.5
So let's say $4000 here

Dolphins +3.5
Over 43.5
So let's say $4000 here

Bills – 10
Under 35.5
So let's say $4000 here

Dallas -7.5
Under 50.5
So let's say $4000 here

Lions -3
Under 51.5
So let's say $4000 here

Philly -3
Under 44.5
So let's say $4000 here

Frosted might win half and the casinos would win half, which would even out but it's not technically half because the casino might win 58%, and Frosted would win 42%, so in the long run yes the casino will always come out ahead. The casinos have the vigorish or vig built into the bets. So long story short our understanding is flawed that Frosted will either lose $23,000 or win $23,000 as an all or nothing bet. It is usually not all or nothing, unless Frosted is very lucky or unlucky losing all his bets or winning all his bets. He'll land somewhere along the bell curve but with the vig the casinos will win in the long run.

[disneysteve]

Frosted might win half and the casinos would win half, which would even out but it's not technically half because the casino might win 58%, and Frosted would win 42%, so in the long run yes the casino will always come out ahead. The casinos have the vigorish or vig built into the bets. So long story short our understanding is flawed that Frosted will either lose $23,000 or win $23,000 as an all or nothing bet. It is usually not all or nothing, unless Frosted is very lucky or unlucky losing all his bets or winning all his bets. He'll land somewhere along the bell curve but with the vig the casinos will win in the long run.

Sure. I would imagine that anyone spreading their bets like that will hit something. If I buy 50 scratch off lottery tickets for $50, the chances of me losing it all are pretty low. I'll probably get a couple of $2 or $4 winners, maybe a $10 winner. But odds are high that I will win less than I bet because the house always wins. The odds are in their favor.

When we were regular casino goers, we absolutely had winning trips, sometimes just by a few dollars but sometimes by a few hundred dollars. I remember one visit I was playing 3-card poker and hit 3 of a kind and then several hands later hit it again. However, over time, the casino always won. My annual win/loss statements were pretty much always in the casino's favor.

So yes, if he bet 23K, he may walk away with 10K or 12K. He may even do really well and walk away with over 23K - this time. That's how gambling works.

[myrdale]

If I buy 50 scratch off lottery tickets for $50, the chances of me losing it all are pretty low.

I'll have to look the video on YouTube up this evening, but on the channel MrBeast, he has a couple of videos where he has purchased $100,000 worth of scratch off tickets, and another where I think it was $1,000,000 worth of scratch off tickets. In each video he ends up with only about 2/3 of what he spent. If you buy one ticket and get lucky, great. But they will get their money plus some in the long run.

[disneysteve]

I'll have to look the video on YouTube up this evening, but on the channel MrBeast, he has a couple of videos where he has purchased $100,000 worth of scratch off tickets, and another where I think it was $1,000,000 worth of scratch off tickets. In each video he ends up with only about 2/3 of what he spent.

You have to be a special kind of stupid to spend 100K or 1M on scratch off tickets.

There is a HUGE difference, though, between gambling in a casino or on lottery tickets and participating in sports betting. In a casino, the odds are firm. They are mathematical calculations. If you sit down at a roulette table (or craps or blackjack), you know exactly what your odds are. The roulette table has 38 numbers (or 37 in some places). If you bet on a single number, your odds are 1 in 38. That's not a guess or an opinion; it's a fact.

If you buy a scratch off ticket, the odds are known. I think they're even printed on the back of the ticket. The lottery knows how many tickets they printed and how many winners of each prize there are so they can tell you exactly what your chances are.

Sports betting is a whole different beast. The "odds" are basically a consensus of guesses from some group of bookies. There is no mathematical way to predict how many points will be scored in a football game or which horse will win the 3rd race at Belmont today. Bookies come up with their best guess based on a slew of factors, primarily past outcomes, but in the end, it's just a guess. When you place a bet, you're depending on their guesses and your own but ultimately you have no idea what your odds of winning actually are.

[myrdale]

You have to be a special kind of stupid to spend 100K or 1M on scratch off tickets.

That video currently has 129 million views. That's worth somewhere between $200k and $1M in revenue before taxes, and his winnings were $700kish. So he presumably broke even plus some.

There are taxes on gambling winnings as well. And that should apply to scratch offs, casinos, or sports betting. Considering that fact, for me personally I just see it as bad odds made even worse.

[disneysteve]

That video currently has 129 million views. That's worth somewhere between $200k and $1M in revenue before taxes, and his winnings were $700kish. So he presumably broke even plus some.

Interesting. So he made a bet that his views would cover his losses. That’s pretty shrewd since it worked out. I’m guessing he already had a large following when he did that so he knew he had a built in audience.

[disneysteve]

There are taxes on gambling winnings as well. And that should apply to scratch offs, casinos, or sports betting. Considering that fact, for me personally I just see it as bad odds made even worse.

I’d be perfectly happy to pay the taxes on a 7 or 8 or 9 figure lottery jackpot. As for more routine gambling you can use losses to offset wins. Since losses almost always exceed wins, there’s rarely any tax due.

[FrostedMoose]

You have to be a special kind of stupid to spend 100K or 1M on scratch off tickets.

There is a HUGE difference, though, between gambling in a casino or on lottery tickets and participating in sports betting. In a casino, the odds are firm. They are mathematical calculations. If you sit down at a roulette table (or craps or blackjack), you know exactly what your odds are. The roulette table has 38 numbers (or 37 in some places). If you bet on a single number, your odds are 1 in 38. That's not a guess or an opinion; it's a fact.

If you buy a scratch off ticket, the odds are known. I think they're even printed on the back of the ticket. The lottery knows how many tickets they printed and how many winners of each prize there are so they can tell you exactly what your chances are.

Sports betting is a whole different beast. The "odds" are basically a consensus of guesses from some group of bookies. There is no mathematical way to predict how many points will be scored in a football game or which horse will win the 3rd race at Belmont today. Bookies come up with their best guess based on a slew of factors, primarily past outcomes, but in the end, it's just a guess. When you place a bet, you're depending on their guesses and your own but ultimately you have no idea what your odds of winning actually are.

thats not how sports betting works but sounds good

[disneysteve]

thats not how sports betting works but sounds good

What did I get wrong? How are odds determined on a football game?

[disneysteve]

This is from Forbes.

Where Do Sports Betting Odds Come From?

Sports betting odds and lines come from sportsbooks and are offered to the consumer. You will find sports betting from websites like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet and Bet365.

The odds can come from a third-party firm, such as Kambi Group, or through in-house development. Sportsbooks that use the same third party for their odds typically have identical lines for many markets, but promotions often alter lines.

Sportsbooks typically have a head oddsmaker overseeing the odds and lines for games. This oddsmaker relies on sources such as computer algorithms, power rankings and outside consultants to set prices.

[FrostedMoose]

you said bookies decide the line. they don't. oddsmakers do. the opening line is just the opening line. it moves with bets. most betters on a game didn't take the opening line. betters decide the lines just like the stock buyers decide the value of a stock. bookies just take bets and pay out bets for a fee.

[kork13]

Interesting. So he made a bet that his views would cover his losses. That’s pretty shrewd since it worked out. I’m guessing he already had a large following when he did that so he knew he had a built in audience.

As much as I hate video content producers & the whole social media influencer crap ... Even I've heard of Mr. Beast -- he was a guest on a podcast I listen to. I don't know exactly, but he is literally one of the highest rated content producers on all of YouTube. Or something roughly along those lines... The man could post a 20 min video of him doing nothing but sneezing & blowing his nose, and he'd probably get millions of views on it.

[disneysteve]

As much as I hate video content producers & the whole social media influencer crap ... Even I've heard of Mr. Beast -- he was a guest on a podcast I listen to. I don't know exactly, but he is literally one of the highest rated content producers on all of YouTube. Or something roughly along those lines... The man could post a 20 min video of him doing nothing but sneezing & blowing his nose, and he'd probably get millions of views on it.

Never heard of him. Not going to seek him out. But I admire the hustle.