Predictions for further stimulus

[kork13]

FWIW, yesterday the Fed's Chairman Powell started that COVID "is no longer playing an important role in our economy."

[QuarterMillionMan]

It's a combination of COVID, stimulus free money, supply issues, worker shortages, etc. The Fed must see that the average Jane Doe & John Doe's wages are not enough to keep up with this inflation so will keep hiking the rates albeit not as aggressive.

[ua_guy]

It's interesting to look back on this thread and see how things have materialized.
No more stimulus, I don't think.
Inflation definitely came to pass though, as was predicted.

Unless I missed it, I'm still waiting for the compelling evidence that "stimulus" was the direct cause of inflation. Inflation was generally controlled in the 20 years prior, despite free money (low/no-interest borrowing from the Fed) and other stimulus measures.

I have been convinced a large portion of "inflation" these days is greed and supply chain issues. Exxon posted their winningest-year ever on record. With $5/gallon gas in the year prior, gee, I wonder how that happened.

[bjl584]

It's interesting to look back on this thread and see how things have materialized.
No more stimulus, I don't think.
Inflation definitely came to pass though, as was predicted.

[QuarterMillionMan]

Apparently a lot of fraud has been happening with the California middle class rebate debit cards, $350 for a single, $700 for a couple, and $1050 for a couple with minors which is the max. They don't say how the fraud occurs but I guess they don't want to educate more fraudsters how to do it. As for me, I was able to withdraw the entire amount of $350 in cash.

Edit to add ua_guy makes a good recommendation and load the balance to an amazon account immediately upon activation before the fraudsters can get it.

Cash in your inflation relief cards ASAP before scammers get it, CA officials say - YouTube

[ua_guy]

That's a lot of shuffling just to turn that card into cash. Usually you can log into the prepaid card's website and transfer money via ACH. I keep a basically empty checking account that I use as a clearing account for this purpose.

The other thing I like to do with prepaid cards is load the balance to my amazon account. I believe any amount still works, so if you've got funds left over, burn it. I use amazon regularly enough that the money won't sit.

You can also use multiple payment cards at grocery stores, etc. Suck down the card balance to nothing and then the cashier will let you know what you still owe after the card has been applied. The more you know

[QuarterMillionMan]

Myrdale good suggestion, that would have worked fine too. Update today I went back to CVS to withdraw $295 (remaining balance was $296.67). The machine said it can only disperse in increments of $10's or $20's. So revised my withdraw to $290. Retrieved my cash and receipt. My remaining balance is now $10, what the heck (see far right receipt). I thought my remaining balance would be $6.67. I'll take the extra $3.33 but on the first receipt it took out the $3.33 fee for a balance inquiry. So weird these ATMs but extra money is always good. As for further stimulus in the future, I would think no more but who knows. It never seems to amaze me.

[myrdale]

These out of network ATMs are notorious for its fees.

My advice would be to go to Walmart or some other retail store that offers the option of cash back. Buy a pack of gum and take $100 off the card.

[ua_guy]

Going back to the original post, but re-racking it for 2023, now that the 2022 mid-terms have closed....

I'd say I'm 75% confident, gov't will do another stimulus (probably same as last few, 70% or so going to ensure big businesses stock prices are inflated to their minimal requirement, then probably in-efficiently sprinkle 30% around certain carefully targeted , means tested groups of people). I would expect it sometime very late 2023, to before 11/2024. No way they (gov't corporate parties) will issue anything unless it will be clearly coupled w/ the optics needed to entice votes for whichever side of the same party.

I'm super cynical here, but nothing has changed enough from my perspective to ensure otherwise..... @ best, it'll be a slightly smaller bailout than the most recent ones.

What's your prediction for what kind of stimulus?

I take stimulus at face value, means to stimulate the economy. The economy doesn't need stimulating - the Fed is trying to slow down an overheated economy, and the latest jobs report says companies are still hiring, fairly strongly. Unless we go full recession at this point I can't see another dollar being given out as stimulus. Something tells me there will be a lot of gridlock in politics, and while that might appease some of our spendthrifts, that's dangerous if a relief package is actually needed.

[amarowsky]

Going back to the original post, but re-racking it for 2023, now that the 2022 mid-terms have closed....

I'd say I'm 75% confident, gov't will do another stimulus (probably same as last few, 70% or so going to ensure big businesses stock prices are inflated to their minimal requirement, then probably in-efficiently sprinkle 30% around certain carefully targeted , means tested groups of people). I would expect it sometime very late 2023, to before 11/2024. No way they (gov't corporate parties) will issue anything unless it will be clearly coupled w/ the optics needed to entice votes for whichever side of the same party.

I'm super cynical here, but nothing has changed enough from my perspective to ensure otherwise..... @ best, it'll be a slightly smaller bailout than the most recent ones.

[QuarterMillionMan]

These out of network ATMs are notorious for its fees. Upon entering my PIN, the first screen asked if I wanted to check my balance and said "this machine doesn't charge a fee for a balance inquiry." So I pressed yes and out pops the receipt on the left for a $3.37 fee, dang it (lol). Withdrew only $50 (on the right) being afraid it might charge more fees if I withdrew over a certain amount or some other fee but luckily no other fees. Direct deposit would be a better option.

[myrdale]

Well since it's a tax refund and not a stimulus, and it's being implemented by the State of California, and not the Federal Government, you don't have to worry. QMM is getting money returned to him from the previous year's taxes.

If it is the case that the state is returning a surplus to the tax paying public, that is a good thing. A better thing would be to cut taxes going forward. Now the next question is, is this money really being taken out of the tax coffers or is this money provided to the state by the federal government? California collected $248 B in taxes in 2021, we'll assume its the same for 2022, and took $44 B in federal aid. If California expects to send out 18 million checks, and the average is $500 (I am assuming that value), then the total amount returned would be $9 B. So roughly 4% of this money is coming from the federal government.

[QuarterMillionMan]

I see they started with direct deposits first, then debit cards. They also started in alphabetical order. This is the AGI breakdown they used;

[Petunia 100]

I activated this California middle class refund just now for $350 out of $1050 (I think). I was hoping for $1050 but $350 is great and I'm not complaining, lol.

I received my $350 by direct deposit on 10/11/22.

[Petunia 100]

How much more welfare can the feds pass out?

It's a refund of budget surplus as required by the state constitution.