Unemployment DECREASED by 2.5 million!

[QuarterMillionMan]

James, I don’t know to both your of your questions. Delta on CNBC said December they’ll expect to see better revenue so I guess it’s the same for most airlines.

[james.hendrickson]

On 6/9/20, I bought $28,000 of AAL, two days later I’m down $5000, bummer.

QMM - what are their earnings looking like? And, when, if at all, do you anticipate a recovery in the share price?

[QuarterMillionMan]

On 6/9/20, I bought $28,000 of AAL, two days later I’m down $5000, bummer.

[QuarterMillionMan]

I think that's all very fairly stated. But it's also part of why after my initial purchase of AAL, I then switched gears and bought JETS instead. There certainly may be individual airlines that don't recover but I'm sure the airline industry isn't going away. I have thought about selling as I'm ahead, but I didn't do it as a short term play so I'm going to hold on for a while and see what happens. I also didn't invest that much overall - 15K total - it won't make or break us no matter what happens.

Now if I had gone in big, yeah, I'd probably be getting out.

[disneysteve]

Oh man - I'd hate to be a state governor these days. If you keep the economy closed, you get civil unrest and mass unemployment, but you save lives. If you open up the economy you get more dead. What an awful decision to have to make.

It is a difficult situation for sure. And sadly it's aggravated by politics, especially being an election year. But politics doesn't change science and facts, as much as people try to pretend that it does.

[james.hendrickson]

Of course today everything is plunging because people are finally waking up to the fact that COVID isn't over and as things have reopened, cases are climbing in 25 or so states. Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, and others are seeing their hospitalization rates climb. I heard that cases in Texas are up 40% since Memorial Day. So the "second wave" is getting everybody nervous even though this was all totally predictable. We knew that as places reopened, especially those that did so prematurely ignoring the science and CDC guidance, we would see cases spike.

Oh man - I'd hate to be a state governor these days. If you keep the economy closed, you get civil unrest and mass unemployment, but you save lives. If you open up the economy you get more dead. What an awful decision to have to make.

[disneysteve]

Of course today everything is plunging because people are finally waking up to the fact that COVID isn't over and as things have reopened, cases are climbing in 25 or so states. Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, and others are seeing their hospitalization rates climb. I heard that cases in Texas are up 40% since Memorial Day. So the "second wave" is getting everybody nervous even though this was all totally predictable. We knew that as places reopened, especially those that did so prematurely ignoring the science and CDC guidance, we would see cases spike.

[cypher1]

I think that's all very fairly stated. But it's also part of why after my initial purchase of AAL, I then switched gears and bought JETS instead. There certainly may be individual airlines that don't recover but I'm sure the airline industry isn't going away. I have thought about selling as I'm ahead, but I didn't do it as a short term play so I'm going to hold on for a while and see what happens. I also didn't invest that much overall - 15K total - it won't make or break us no matter what happens.

Now if I had gone in big, yeah, I'd probably be getting out.

I'm in the same boat with my initial purchases of RCL, AAL, even DIS for stocks since they're pretty small investments (I think 1-2% of portfolio). I'm just going to let them ride for the next 2-5 yr. However, I plan to keep DIS and JETS for much longer.

[disneysteve]

The reason why I advocated profit taking vs long term because the sector that got decimated couldn't get back to their original value for years. I was bullish on ccl under 10 dollars, and I expected to sell at 20 because it's a long road ahead long term. I didn't expect ccl to be over 20 just after a months. I expected it to rise to 20+ next year and then takes about 3-5 years to go back to original levels. But of 20+ is early then it just make sense to take profit because the market is obviously way ahead of itself.

Bankruptcy risk is still high for the travel sector due to their razor thin margins and this Covid total disruption. 2x your money and invest into something that is the future is how I looked at it.

I never advocate profit taking, you know that. I rarely urge people to take profit. But when I wrote that post it was perhaps my one and only time telling people is a good idea to take profit.

I think that's all very fairly stated. But it's also part of why after my initial purchase of AAL, I then switched gears and bought JETS instead. There certainly may be individual airlines that don't recover but I'm sure the airline industry isn't going away. I have thought about selling as I'm ahead, but I didn't do it as a short term play so I'm going to hold on for a while and see what happens. I also didn't invest that much overall - 15K total - it won't make or break us no matter what happens.

Now if I had gone in big, yeah, I'd probably be getting out.

[kork13]

Anyone take their profits before these industry just dumped 25% the last two days? This post aged like fine wine.

I did end up selling nearly all of my taxable investments on the 10th, because on the 9th, DW & I decided to use it to buy our next home in cash. By the time the sales went through, most of it was down 2% or so, but overall it was still a 22% total gain since March. The only ones I held onto were a few shares of a couple stocks & my JETS -- partly because they had fallen too much already (JETS down 7% when I sold), and I figure I still like their prospects enough to stay patient on that last $4k.

[Singuy]

The reason why I advocated profit taking vs long term because the sector that got decimated couldn't get back to their original value for years. I was bullish on ccl under 10 dollars, and I expected to sell at 20 because it's a long road ahead long term. I didn't expect ccl to be over 20 just after a months. I expected it to rise to 20+ next year and then takes about 3-5 years to go back to original levels. But of 20+ is early then it just make sense to take profit because the market is obviously way ahead of itself.

Bankruptcy risk is still high for the travel sector due to their razor thin margins and this Covid total disruption. 2x your money and invest into something that is the future is how I looked at it.

I never advocate profit taking, you know that. I rarely urge people to take profit. But when I wrote that post it was perhaps my one and only time telling people is a good idea to take profit.

[disneysteve]

Anyone take their profits before these industry just dumped 25% the last two days?

No profit-taking here. I'm not a day trader. I'm a long term investor. I did buy AAL and JETS back when things were crashing. They are both up a few dollars each from my basis and I'm planning to hold them for the continued recovery. Airline volume is already picking up and will increase a lot more in the next couple of months. I'm happy to hold onto these for a couple of years or more if that's how long it takes.

[Singuy]

I am calling it now, this is an employment dead cat bounce. Travel, entertainment, and dining will not even remotely be the same as before until at least 2 years into this thing(and post vaccine). Owners will find that it'll be more expensive keeping shop open and have 25% of their usual sales than to just keep it closed, especially restaurants. Same with travel because there are fix cost to everything. Anything that has razor thin margins cannot stay afloat when it takes 80%- 90% capacity just to break even. Cruise ships are notorious for needing at least 94% occupancy to break even(hence sometimes they pretty much give away the price of the ticket just to fill the ship).

So I would look to take profit on bets like cruise ships/travel/airline/dining when there's exuberance in the air.

Anyone take their profits before these industry just dumped 25% the last two days? This post aged like fine wine.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

There was a mistake in the may jobs report. The number was about 3% higher and the Bureau of Labor Statistics was working to correct it. Yes it's down from 19.5% but not as much as people think. April had the same mistake and was calculated at 14.7% but adjusted up to 19.5. So what does that mean? We did get some jobs back more people still without jobs.

[Smallsteps]

I wonder if all the fraud unemployment claims are also a factor ...
if millions of claims were filed and counted as lost jobs... but in fact they were fraud................. as states/ people catch the fraud and stop the claims then the numbers of claims go down as quickly as they went up.
It is been known for years that the way some government stats are counted can be way off due to missing or inaccurate data.

Hopefully as most realized that we need to make more item in this country instead of being held hostage to foreign suppliers will create many new jobs.