April 15th

[TexasHusker]

Not to get political, but I read an article today about how each state's restrictions are often tied to whether the governor is a Republican or Democrat. The "blue" states are much more likely to have state-wide shut downs. The "red" states are more likely to be leaving it up to each individual municipality to do their own thing. Of course, that means that your town could be shut down and the town a few streets over could be open, which completely defeats the whole point.

The lack of a national response makes more sense (well no, it makes no sense, but it's easier to see where it's coming from) when you see how politics plays into the decision making process. It's just a disgrace that this is a political issue at all.

I don't know that it is a political issue at all. A Republican by definition is going to be more of a "states' rights" advocate I would think. A bit more on the "less government oversight" end of the spectrum. It isn't surprising that those with a GOP ideology are allowing mayors to make the call. I would assume the Democrat ideology would be much more of a top-down deal. No right or wrong answer on that, it just depends on your perspective.

Today our own Governor Greg Abbott basically shut down anything but "essential" in the whole state for 30 days. I thought that was heavy-handed. Then I go out for a drive and everyone seems to still be open - Lowe's and Walmart parking lots are full. Academy Sporting Goods, restaurants (drive through), body shops, Best Buy (curb service), etc., etc. And here I am completely closed. I guess everyone except me is essential. It's very disheartening. It's like the government is picking winners and losers in this deal, and I've been picked as one of the losers.

[disneysteve]

I don't know that it is a political issue at all. A Republican by definition is going to be more of a "states' rights" advocate I would think. A bit more on the "less government oversight" end of the spectrum. It isn't surprising that those with a GOP ideology are allowing mayors to make the call. I would assume the Democrat ideology would be much more of a top-down deal. No right or wrong answer on that, it just depends on your perspective.

But that's exactly the point. The way you address a huge public health crisis shouldn't depend on your political affiliation. You should follow the recommendations of the health officials, CDC, WHO, etc. It shouldn't matter if you're in a "red" state or a "blue" state.

Today our own Governor Greg Abbott basically shut down anything but "essential" in the whole state for 30 days. I thought that was heavy-handed. Then I go out for a drive and everyone seems to still be open - Lowe's and Walmart parking lots are full. Academy Sporting Goods, restaurants (drive through), body shops, Best Buy (curb service), etc., etc. And here I am completely closed. I guess everyone except me is essential. It's very disheartening. It's like the government is picking winners and losers in this deal, and I've been picked as one of the losers.

The only one of those that doesn't make sense is the sporting goods store. How is that essential? Home repair, groceries, car service, electronics and appliances all are essential things, but not sporting goods. And sorry, but not haircuts either.

[james.hendrickson]

The only one of those that doesn't make sense is the sporting goods store. How is that essential? Home repair, groceries, car service, electronics and appliances all are essential things, but not sporting goods. And sorry, but not haircuts either.

Fitness is important. Governor Brown here in Oregon has a stay at home order with a fitness/exercise exception. Also in Texas perhaps firearms are considered essential?

[disneysteve]

Fitness is important. Governor Brown here in Oregon has a stay at home order with a fitness/exercise exception. Also in Texas perhaps firearms are considered essential?

Fitness is very important, but that doesn't require a sporting goods store. Are the gyms still open in Texas? If not, neither should the sports stores.

And no, guns definitely aren't essential. But I know Texas is special that way (again it's a red state/blue state thing).

[Like2Plan]

Under the FAQs of the IHME web site:

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

"Length of the epidemic

Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?

Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave."

"Social distancing

Does this show the effect of social distancing and other measures?

The model includes the effects of social distancing measures implemented at the “first administrative level” (in the US this generally means the state level) and assumes continued social distancing until at least the end of May 2020. We classified social distancing measures using the New Zealand Government alert system Level 4 and then assume that locations that have instituted fewer than three of these measures will enact the remaining measures within seven days. We also assume that implementation and adherence to these measures is complete. With each model update, the assumption of full implementation of social distancing measures is reset; any delay will be reflected in the number of deaths and burden on hospital systems that the model estimates."


Dr Fauci has described 3 waves of the pandemic in the press conferences. The first one is right now. The second one will be this fall and the third one will be the fall of 2021. He said they are trying to get a vaccine out as soon as possible, They are concurrently manufacturing the vaccines that are currently in clinical trials. But, if the clinical trials don't pan out, they can't use the vaccine they are making. But, if they do demonstrate efficacy they will be ready to go--it just might not be in time for this fall.

[Like2Plan]

One thing going in our favor for the Fall is the new 15 minute point of care test. We are going to have to test the crap out everyone. Contact tracing for positive cases and quarantine-- so that only the folks who are actually sick (or exposed) are the ones in quarantine--not the whole world. Maybe it means mandatory 2 week quarantine for anyone traveling anywhere? I am sure there are other things that can be done. The thing is--there are things that we can do that we know works. We ought to do that instead of having an emergency situation that results in many, many, deaths and requires shutting down the whole world.

Also, I look forward to when the antibody test (to identify those who have already contracted covid-19 and recovered) becomes widely available.

[bjl584]

I don't know that it is a political issue at all. A Republican by definition is going to be more of a "states' rights" advocate I would think. A bit more on the "less government oversight" end of the spectrum. It isn't surprising that those with a GOP ideology are allowing mayors to make the call. I would assume the Democrat ideology would be much more of a top-down deal. No right or wrong answer on that, it just depends on your perspective.

Today our own Governor Greg Abbott basically shut down anything but "essential" in the whole state for 30 days. I thought that was heavy-handed. Then I go out for a drive and everyone seems to still be open - Lowe's and Walmart parking lots are full. Academy Sporting Goods, restaurants (drive through), body shops, Best Buy (curb service), etc., etc. And here I am completely closed. I guess everyone except me is essential. It's very disheartening. It's like the government is picking winners and losers in this deal, and I've been picked as one of the losers.

Our Governor in PA kept all of his own businesses open until public backlash forced him to close them.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-pa-coronavirus-business-shutdown-waiver-tom-wolf-joe-scarnati-20200327.html

[disneysteve]

One thing going in our favor for the Fall is the new 15 minute point of care test. We are going to have to test the crap out everyone.

Easier said than done. It will be interesting, to be sure, especially for those of us on the front line of this sort of thing. We do rapid flu and strep testing and I imagine we'll start doing the rapid COVID test as well. Here's the challenge, though. You're not really supposed to do any testing unless you feel it will alter your treatment decision. For example, if I listen to your lungs and hear a pneumonia, I don't do a chest x-ray just for the heck of it. I'm already planning to treat you. Or if you come in with a sore throat, fever, swollen glands, and white pus on your tonsils, I treat you for strep. I don't do a rapid strep test. So we'll have to figure out who we are testing for COVID. If it's every single patient that might possibly have it based on their symptoms, you're talking about millions of tests.

[Like2Plan]

Easier said than done. It will be interesting, to be sure, especially for those of us on the front line of this sort of thing. We do rapid flu and strep testing and I imagine we'll start doing the rapid COVID test as well. Here's the challenge, though. You're not really supposed to do any testing unless you feel it will alter your treatment decision. For example, if I listen to your lungs and hear a pneumonia, I don't do a chest x-ray just for the heck of it. I'm already planning to treat you. Or if you come in with a sore throat, fever, swollen glands, and white pus on your tonsils, I treat you for strep. I don't do a rapid strep test. So we'll have to figure out who we are testing for COVID. If it's every single patient that might possibly have it based on their symptoms, you're talking about millions of tests.

(Honestly, I would hope they would test every single patient. period. --probably why I'm not in charge. ) Hopefully, they will have good guidelines that will be effective in controlling it.


edited to add: I think I read that S. Korea had something on the order of 2% positives for all the covid-19 tests they did. So, they did a whole lot of testing.

[TexasHusker]

Our Governor in PA kept all of his own businesses open until public backlash forced him to close them.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-pa-coronavirus-business-shutdown-waiver-tom-wolf-joe-scarnati-20200327.html

figures

[TexasHusker]

Dr Fauci has described 3 waves of the pandemic in the press conferences. The first one is right now. The second one will be this fall and the third one will be the fall of 2021.

sounds like college football could be in jeopardy?