mortality

[kork13]

Why is it pointless? I think it's important for the public to see the number of cases and the number of deaths rising as it hopefully drives home the point of why social distancing and stay at home orders are vitally important and must be observed. Even if the numbers are understated, which they are, the more they rise the stronger the message.

But the absolute numbers, e.g. "oh no, we just crossed #k cases!" or "The US surpassed China, Italy, and Mars for number of cases!" doesn't provide anything useful. The selectivity guarantees that it's inaccurate, and acting like it is only feeds the trolls' rhetoric.

Can you honestly tell me that a 20% uptick in new cases means it's spreading faster? Or are we simply testing more people faster? Can it show us what communities, industries, etc. are spreading it more than others? That's what I'm saying -- the numbers don't & can't tell us meaningful information that actually helps in combating the spread.

[Like2Plan]

My point is just that... Because we're only doing testing for people with significant symptoms (or notoriety), the data isn't really valuable. We likely have 3x or more people infected, but without extensive testing or at least some decent modeling, we have no concept of what's actually happening. The testing is almost pointless as an indicator right now, much less a focus on the absolute number of people who test positive for it. It's all only feeding a pointless narrative on every side, and none of it is helpful.

There are "sides" to this? Wow. I would think by now that most people would realize we are in real trouble--and that we have been in real trouble for a bit and just didn't realize it.

I do think right now there are regions that are not as badly impacted. Who's to say if we have enough time that we can bring to bear the testing and thereby the data driven solutions that Dr. Birx was talking about in yesterday's news conference (I really hope we can). But, above all we certainly can't give up.

[disneysteve]

the numbers don't & can't tell us meaningful information that actually helps in combating the spread.

The best, and really only, way to combat the spread is to stay home. The less people are in contact with each other the better. And the longer that's maintained the better. It really doesn't matter what the numbers are for that to be true, but I do hope that constantly seeing those numbers rising emphasizes that point.

Again, we are only testing the sickest people, so if the number of confirmed cases is rising, that means the number of people qualifying to be tested is rising. We're not testing the mild to moderate cases in whom we suspect COVID-19 so sure, there are likely tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of those who aren't being counted. That makes the confirmed # of cases even more significant.

[disneysteve]

I do think right now there are regions that are not as badly impacted.

Of course. Highly populated areas like NYC are going to be more affected than some town in the middle of Wyoming or North Dakota. Population density is always a factor in the spread of contagious diseases.

[kork13]

There are "sides" to this? Wow. I would think by now that most people would realize we are in real trouble--and that we have been in real trouble for a bit and just didn't realize it.

I do think right now there are regions that are not as badly impacted. Who's to say if we have enough time that we can bring to bear the testing and thereby the data driven solutions that Dr. Birx was talking about in yesterday's news conference (I really hope we can). But, above all we certainly can't give up.

If it was somehow unclear, my initial statement that we need to stop testing was completely tongue-in-cheek. And the only "sides" are those being placed in the situation by those driving the rhetoric narrative -- political parties & figureheads, news media, etc. I'm agreeing with you! I'm trying to say that we need more, better data. Without it, the limited data we have can't provide what we need from it. Right now, testing is purely a diagnostic tool. It's doing very little to really support policy-level public health actions.

[disneysteve]

Right now, testing is purely a diagnostic tool. It's doing very little to really support policy-level public health actions.

I see your point, but testing is really always a diagnostic tool. We are trained not to do tests that aren't going to alter our treatment decisions. We shouldn't test just for the sake of testing. Yes, testing data is used for other purposes, but the primary goal of testing is to help guide treatment decisions. We should not be doing mass testing of mild or asymptomatic patients just to see how many cases are really out there.

The bottom line is that everyone should assume they are infected and behave accordingly because when this is all done, 50-70% of us will have been infected.

[Like2Plan]

If it was somehow unclear, my initial statement that we need to stop testing was completely tongue-in-cheek. And the only "sides" are those being placed in the situation by those driving the rhetoric narrative -- political parties & figureheads, news media, etc. I'm agreeing with you! I'm trying to say that we need more, better data. Without it, the limited data we have can't provide what we need from it. Right now, testing is purely a diagnostic tool. It's doing very little to really support policy-level public health actions.

(Sorry for my strongly worded response.)

Yes, I see what you are saying. Though, there is one part of this testing that actually does support policy-level public health actions (from what I have read, anyway). It seems the course of the disease--average 5 ish days after exposure (can be longer that is why they say quarantine 14 days) to come down with the disease. Then, about a week of cold/flu like symptoms. And, then after that --there is a percentage of the sickest people who need hospitalization (20% of which 5% are really severe)--and that duration of hospitalization could be for 2 or 3 weeks (or longer?). So, for example Gov Cuomo probably has a pretty good idea of how many ventilators his state is going to need in a week-- based on the new diagnoses they get.

[TexasHusker]

China's Wuhan virus numbers cannot be trusted. Might as well not even reference them. There are 21 million fewer cell phone users in China over the last three months. Let's get real here.

https://abc14news.com/2020/03/24/21-million-chinese-cellphone-users-disappear-in-three-months/

[disneysteve]

So, for example Gov Cuomo probably has a pretty good idea of how many ventilators his state is going to need in a week-- based on the new diagnoses they get.

Exactly, because he is being guided by science and data and facts rather than "I have a feeling".

[disneysteve]

China's Wuhan virus numbers cannot be trusted. Might as well not even reference them. There are 21 million fewer cell phone users in China over the last three months. Let's get real here.

https://abc14news.com/2020/03/24/21-...-three-months/

OMG. Is that article actually from a news channel? The grammar, vocabulary, and sentence structure are horrible. It reads as if it was written by a 3rd grader for whom English is not their primary language. I wouldn't trust a word from that article.

That said, I also agree that "news" from China isn't to be trusted.

[TexasHusker]

OMG. Is that article actually from a news channel? The grammar, vocabulary, and sentence structure are horrible. It reads as if it was written by a 3rd grader for whom English is not their primary language. I wouldn't trust a word from that article.

That said, I also agree that "news" from China isn't to be trusted.

lol yeah it's pretty bad.

[ua_guy]

OMG. Is that article actually from a news channel? The grammar, vocabulary, and sentence structure are horrible. It reads as if it was written by a 3rd grader for whom English is not their primary language. I wouldn't trust a word from that article.

That said, I also agree that "news" from China isn't to be trusted.

It's a fake news/ trash news site that isn't actually affiliated with ABC.

https://www.newsguardtech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ABC14News-Label.pdf

[disneysteve]

It's a fake news/ trash news site that isn't actually affiliated with ABC.

https://www.newsguardtech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ABC14News-Label.pdf

That’s good. If that was legit it was scary bad.

[disneysteve]

Can you honestly tell me that a 20% uptick in new cases means it's spreading faster? Or are we simply testing more people faster?

I just listened to an interview with a doctor at a hospital in NYC. Last week, they had 10 patients hospitalized for COVID-19. Today they have 170.

That isn't because they tested more people.

The governor of NJ put out a call today for anyone with medical training - retired doctors, nurses, EMTs, etc. - to volunteer to help because the healthcare system is quickly getting overwhelmed both by the sheer number of patients contracting the disease and the fact that healthcare workers are getting exposed and infected and having to be out of work for a couple of weeks in quarantine or treatment themselves.

This isn't because they tested more people.

[myrdale]

Wait... Do you mean... The more people we test.... the more people will pop positive for COVID-19?!
Clearly, we need to stop testing.

Currently we are at 100,000 confirmed cases in the United States (or close enough to count). But what gets me is what a minute percent of the 300,000,000 population that is. Basically only 1 in 3,000 people has been confirmed to be infected, or 0.03%.

Considering China has a population of 1.4 Billion and India is 1.3 Billion, I can't believe they're limited anywhere near the reported 82,000 cases in and 900 cases respectively with population density.

Even if we forced every US citizen to stay home for 2 weeks and we eradicated the entire inventory infection within our boarders, we'd only have this pop up again and again.

Herd immunity will be the only way to eliminate the virus, which outside of a vaccine, I am guessing will require 25% to 30% of the population to become infected. I can appreciate trying to flatten the curve, but it's going to take x1000 more people to get there.