mortality

[Snydley]

Good questions. People have been asking me how long we will all be social distancing- my feeling is that if we go more than one more month like this, will we start losing lives due to loss of basic necessities (food, medications, etc)? We need to flatten/stop that curve should it arise. I wonder if this should be regulated on a state level- as in, NYC locked down the longest, but states that flatten their COVID-19 curves send people back to work first, if we can control inter-state travel, which would be very tough. Also there's a new test the size of a pregnancy test that needs only a drop of blood and lets you know within 15 minutes if you have antibodies to this virus (and therefore were infected and most likely have some protective immunity)- should test everyone with something like this and send antibody+ people back to work first?

[bjl584]

Great info! So we see naturally weighing trying to choke out this virus by shutting the economy down, versus the long lasting destruction of our way of life economically. Once we “level the curve” why wouldn’t it just pop right back up when everyone goes back to normal? What is our end game ?

I'm sure people are weighing these options.
I do know that where I work a lot of the contracts and bidding for construction work have disappeared, and they may not come back when this is over.
The money that was to support these jobs has been allocated to other things just to keep the businesses afloat.
So, it's not going to be like flipping a switch.

I'm guessing a worldwide depression that takes a generation to dig out of will cause more death and destruction than a virus ever could hope to.
But, that's a hard sell.

[Like2Plan]

Great info! So we see naturally weighing trying to choke out this virus by shutting the economy down, versus the long lasting destruction of our way of life economically. Once we “level the curve” why wouldn’t it just pop right back up when everyone goes back to normal? What is our end game ?

The immediate problem is totally overwhelming the health care system. There is endless debate about the mortality rate of this disease, but it really doesn't matter if all the cases need hospitalization at the same time and there are not enough resources to care for them.

Another problem is the duration in the hospital. If you look at the world o meter (as of right now), there are 54,973 cases of coronavirus in the US. Of those cases there are 784 deaths and 379 recovered. "Using available preliminary data, the median time from onset to clinical recovery for mild cases is approximately 2 weeks and is 3-6 weeks for patients with severe or critical disease." source: https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...nal-report.pdf

The statistic I have seen is about 20% severe and of those 5% critical disease (not sure if that has changed). Obviously, not 100% will require hospitalization.

New York has 25,969 active cases currently. Just to give you an idea of the scale of the problem--if nothing is done, the number of cases would expect to double every 5-6days...

There are doing clinical trials on several therapies right now... Some of the drugs may reduce the viral load--reducing the time needed for hospitalization in addition to improving the outcome.

So, we are trying to buy some time to get more therapies and also more supplies--simple things like masks. I think it is disgusting that hospital personal already have to reuse PPE--how does that even protect them when they have to touch surfaces (masks, for example) that might have been contaminated? It is certainly not ideal, but they are doing what they have to do because of the scale of this problem.

[Like2Plan]

Spanish Military Finds Dead Bodies And Seniors 'Completely Abandoned' In Care Homes

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...d-in-care-home

[Captain Save]

I see no reason why life insurance folks would care about it other than the fact that 1 to 1.5 million Americans are likely to die from it. But as far as getting insurance if you've previously had it, yes, that wouldn't matter.

maybe because they're liable to ;pay a hefty price to the family if they die.... so as of last week when I checked they don't ask about Corona.. but of course there are general parameters like "are you currently hospitalized or have you been hospitalized in the past 90 days" ... but that's about it for now.. things may or may not change...

[Like2Plan]

The link has a map of how many coronavirus cases there are in the US:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...rus-in-the-u-s


A question--does the entire US need to be shut down? Some areas are already overwhelmed--it is too late for contact tracing. But, (if the data is accurate) it is just starting out in some areas. Could it be contained ( in those areas that are currently minimally impacted) by testing, contact tracing and quarantine only those individuals--thereby allowing everyone else to go to work (still practicing higher levels of hygiene--distancing as much as possible)?

On the other hand I can see problems with that, too, for example I wonder how many of the folks who are traveling from places where there are high infection rates who have been asked to go into voluntary quarantine for 2 weeks are actually doing that?

[ua_guy]

The link has a map of how many coronavirus cases there are in the US:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...rus-in-the-u-s


A question--does the entire US need to be shut down? Some areas are already overwhelmed--it is too late for contact tracing. But, (if the data is accurate) it is just starting out in some areas. Could it be contained ( in those areas that are currently minimally impacted) by testing, contact tracing and quarantine only those individuals--thereby allowing everyone else to go to work (still practicing higher levels of hygiene--distancing as much as possible)?

On the other hand I can see problems with that, too, for example I wonder how many of the folks who are traveling from places where there are high infection rates who have been asked to go into voluntary quarantine for 2 weeks are actually doing that?

The administration talks about these "very large sections" of the country that aren't impacted. They are impacted, but testing isn't really a thing, and "the numbers" stay low. So let's assume we put one "very large section" of country back to work. "Open it up". Let's say Gillette Wyoming is part of that very large section, with low numbers, and can go back to work.

Well suddenly people in Gillette, a town of 30k with nothing else around, start to get sick. Now they start testing, and find out the whole damn town is infected. Gillette's only got a few clinics and a hospital. Suddenly the healthcare system in Gillette is completely overwhelmed and everybody who passes through Gillette is picking it up. Maybe they only have 4 ICU beds or 20 ICU beds but it's not enough to take care of the 3,000 people who start coming down with the virus.

This "open up sections" statement coming from the administration is a very dangerous statement. This isn't how it works. And rural healthcare ISN'T designed for this and can so easily become overwhelmed.

Very large sections of the country are still open and many people ARE still working because they have no choice. It's unfortunate because that means containment and recovery all take longer, and the huge parabolic curve they keep talking about now spreads into many parabolic curves with reinfections and "outbreaks" at different times and different places. It's completely against the best and brightest minds in medicine and what all the public health experts are saying.

[bjl584]

The link has a map of how many coronavirus cases there are in the US:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...rus-in-the-u-s


A question--does the entire US need to be shut down? Some areas are already overwhelmed--it is too late for contact tracing. But, (if the data is accurate) it is just starting out in some areas. Could it be contained ( in those areas that are currently minimally impacted) by testing, contact tracing and quarantine only those individuals--thereby allowing everyone else to go to work (still practicing higher levels of hygiene--distancing as much as possible)?

On the other hand I can see problems with that, too, for example I wonder how many of the folks who are traveling from places where there are high infection rates who have been asked to go into voluntary quarantine for 2 weeks are actually doing that?

Watch the movie Outbreak.
The military literally quarantined the small town in the movie. No one was allowed to leave. Period.
That is the only way to contain this.
Voluntary quarantines and suggestions to shelter in place will never work

[Like2Plan]

Well suddenly people in Gillette, a town of 30k with nothing else around, start to get sick. Now they start testing....
.

They would have to get out ahead of the testing--like that town in Italy where they tested everyone, for example. (At this point, it probably exceeds practicality and the scope of the available testing, though)

[Like2Plan]

Watch the movie Outbreak.
The military literally quarantined the small town in the movie. No one was allowed to leave. Period.
That is the only way to contain this.
Voluntary quarantines and suggestions to shelter in place will never work

I suppose this is correct. I saw a piece on TV a while back about a woman and her daughter who were visiting Italy (even before the voluntary quarantines) and apparently posting pictures on FB. Concerned parents from the daughter's school were asking the woman if she was planning to go into quarantine when they came home--the woman said, "Ain't going to happen... "

[TexasHusker]

The truth is, this is all the wild west. No one knows who has it and where, because testing is spotty. The only thing I'm tired of is the blame game, particularly from Corona News Network. The media is behaving irresponsibly, as usual. Instead of reporting news, they want to create a narrative. Most news has lost all credibility with me - they aren't news outlets any more - just mouthpieces for a bunch of people who are perpetually naysayers.

[Snydley]

Just listen to Tony Fauci. He's a highly revered immunologist and I believe he's the best source of accurate information out there.

[disneysteve]

Just listen to Tony Fauci. He's a highly revered immunologist and I believe he's the best source of accurate information out there.

Now if he could just get POTUS to stop contradicting everything he says we'd be in good shape.

[Like2Plan]

Just listen to Tony Fauci. He's a highly revered immunologist and I believe he's the best source of accurate information out there.

I really like listening to Dr. Fauci. Here is a recent interview:

“That’s really very flexible,” Fauci told reporters at the White House when asked about the president’s timeline, which Trump floated earlier Tuesday during a Fox News virtual town hall on the coronavirus pandemic.

“You can look at a date but you’ve got to be very flexible and on a literally day-by-day and week-by-week basis. You need to evaluate the feasibility of what you’re trying to do," Fauci said.

Fauci suggested regions with fewer cases may be able to ease guidelines urging people to avoid gatherings of more than 10 people and stay away from bars and restaurants before harder-hit areas. But he cautioned officials don't have enough data to determine where those regions are.

Aggressive testing and subsequent isolation of individuals who are found to have the coronavirus can help keep the disease from spreading to parts of the country that have yet to see an outbreak, Fauci said.

He acknowledged lifting restrictions does not make sense in an area like New York City, which has emerged as the epicenter of the pandemic in the U.S. with hundreds of new cases each day. The New York metro area currently accounts for 60 percent of new COVID-19 cases domestically.

“You may not want to essentially treat it as just one force for the entire country, but look at flexibility in different areas,” Fauci said. “So I think people might get the misinterpretation you’re just going to lift everything up. … That’s not going to happen. It’s going to be looking at the data. And what we don’t have right now that we really do need, is we need to know what’s going on in those areas of the country where there isn’t an obvious outbreak.”

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/489346-fauci-says-trumps-easter-goal-should-be-flexible

[TexasHusker]

Just listen to Tony Fauci. He's a highly revered immunologist and I believe he's the best source of accurate information out there.

Indeed. He’s also viewing the world as a physician/healer, as he should. But “stay at home and stay well” is rather easy to proclaim in a vacuum from a doctor’s perch. Many do not have the means or circumstances to follow their advice.