Debating about canceling euro trip in May

[kork13]

Somehow I feel that the Chinese government made a such a huge deal out of this just to have some crazy wins on the back end.

1. Look at how much we care about containment
2. Look at how the world sucks when we have disruption of producing good, looks like you do need us.
3. Look at how we can build a freaken hospital in 10 day, you want a factory here?..we will build it in a month. You can't even get permits that fast anywhere else.

I've had similar thoughts as well. The Chinese response was exceptionally heavy-handed, and arguable about how much that has helped or hurt the situation. But regardless, it's definitely brought some of those issues (and others) to the fore, both commercially & diplomatically. The conspiracy theorist in me (gratefully a very, very small voice) says that it could have been a test for how they could leverage their economy in a military or diplomatic conflict. Particularly notable given the recent US-China trade dispute.

[disneysteve]

16000 people died so far from Influenza and 280k people hospitalized during this 2019-2020 flu season in the US. The death rate is sitting at HIGHER than the coronavirus

The absolute number of deaths is higher with the flu but the death rate is far lower.

Corona: 79,774 case; 2,630 deaths. Death rate of 3.3%
Flu (US only): At least 15,000,000 cases; 8,200 deaths. Death rate of 0.05%

And the true number of flu cases is likely far higher because most people with the flu don't go to the doctor or get tested so the real death rate is even lower.

That means Coronavirus is killing people at a rate 60-70 times greater than flu.

[Singuy]

The absolute number of deaths is higher with the flu but the death rate is far lower.

Corona: 79,774 case; 2,630 deaths. Death rate of 3.3%
Flu (US only): At least 15,000,000 cases; 8,200 deaths. Death rate of 0.05%

And the true number of flu cases is likely far higher because most people with the flu don't go to the doctor or get tested so the real death rate is even lower.

That means Coronavirus is killing people at a rate 60-70 times greater than flu.

I don't know where you get your numbers but there are way more deaths for the FLU, 16k-41k deaths from 280k-500k hospitalizations.

Also what you said about the FLU can be said about the coronavirus as symptoms are not all that different (as in not everyone goes to the hospital and it's recoverable on its own considering that there's no effective treatment for either virus and people are getting discharged after getting the coronavirus because it resolved be itself much like the FLU). Tamiflu can be used for either but because of the nature of viral infections and how they resolve on their own, Tamiflu resolves symptoms by a day or two earlier at best.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

[disneysteve]

I don't know where you get your numbers but there are way more deaths for the FLU, 16k-41k deaths from 280k-500k hospitalizations.

The number I quoted was from late January, so not up to date, but the point about the death rate still stands. If there are 16,000 deaths from 29,000,000 cases, that's still a 0.05% death rate.

[Singuy]

The number I quoted was from late January, so not up to date, but the point about the death rate still stands. If there are 16,000 deaths from 29,000,000 cases, that's still a 0.05% death rate.

That's comparing apples to oranges. You can only count hospitalized cases since these are actual tested patients and not "they can be up to blah blah blah". There are many people with coronavirus walking around and resolving by themselves without getting tested or ends up in the hospital. So like I said, the same can be said about both. We can't just compare hospitalized pts from the coronavirus to ALL potential pts for Hflu.

[disneysteve]

That's comparing apples to oranges. You can only count hospitalized cases since these are actual tested patients and not "they can be up to blah blah blah". There are many people with coronavirus walking around and resolving by themselves without getting tested or ends up in the hospital.

That's a fair point.

[Like2Plan]

My concern is probably more to do with disruptions and possible quarantines--which would really not be preferable such a long way from home. There have already been disruptions in Italy. Also of concern is if there is a more widespread outbreak--despite all the statistics on how lethal the illness is--the pneumonia that it causes quickly overwhelms available health care systems. Not to mention --not being able to speak the native language in such a stressful situation. (It's probably too late for Rosetta stone. )

[Snydley]

While coronavirus may peter out like SARS did and hopefully not become a pandemic, it should be taken far more seriously than flu at this time because: (1) death rates for flu ~0.1% as compared with 3% for coronavirus (the latter I'd consider "frequently fatal" and not the former) (2) coronavirus is currently a BSL4 (Biosafety level 4) agent, as there's no effective vaccine or treatment and there's a high mortality rate from infection, (3) unlike flu, there's very much still unknown about this pathogen, for example, how individuals who have appeared to have cleared the virus will fair long term.

[Singuy]

Coronavirus death rate by Age.

Also note that women's death rate is 1/2 of men probably because over 50% of men in China smokes.

AGE	DEATH RATE*
80+ years old	14.8%
70-79 years old	8.0%
60-69 years old	3.6%
50-59 years old	1.3%
40-49 years old	0.4%
30-39 years old	0.2%
20-29 years old	0.2%
10-19 years old	0.2%
0-9 years old	no fatalities

OoOO, so scary..

[Like2Plan]

Coronavirus death rate by Age.

Also note that women's death rate is 1/2 of men probably because over 50% of men in China smokes.

AGE	DEATH RATE*
80+ years old	14.8%
70-79 years old	8.0%
60-69 years old	3.6%
50-59 years old	1.3%
40-49 years old	0.4%
30-39 years old	0.2%
20-29 years old	0.2%
10-19 years old	0.2%
0-9 years old	no fatalities

OoOO, so scary..

This doesn't address my concerns above. You can be impacted by the disease without actually having it.

Also, I don't think anyone has a good handle on the death rates because no one really knows the extent of the disease in the general population (which actually might make the figures lower). On the other hand, we might not know the extent of the deaths because they may not have been reported attributed to covid-19 (may be pneumonia instead), they might not have had an official diagnosis because there were no hospital beds/care for the individual. So, whatever.

[Like2Plan]

Also, another thing that is particularly worrisome to me are the Chinese health professionals who have succumbed to the disease--folks who should have the most knowledge (and best chance) at protecting themselves against the disease.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/coronavirus-covid-19-latest-updates-china-death.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/14/more-than-1700-health-workers-infected-by-coronavirus-in-china

[Snydley]

Those death rates % posted by Singuy are very alarming.

Also, another thing that is particularly worrisome to me are the Chinese health professionals who have succumbed to the disease--folks who should have the most knowledge (and best chance) at protecting themselves against the disease.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/coronavirus-covid-19-latest-updates-china-death.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/14/more-than-1700-health-workers-infected-by-coronavirus-in-china

The last big Ebola outbreak was similar, in that like this coronavirus, we really didn't understand how easily it was transmittted at first and we now know Ebola it's very easy to become infected with via exposure to bodily fluids. HIV, on the other hand, is actually quite difficult to transmit in comparison.

[creditcardfree]

Personally, I would go on the trip, unless you find yourself in major fear or panic, which is detrimental to health and your immune system. More people recover than are dying. The deaths and the rate are very, very unfortunate. Pay attention to the fact that they are experimenting with high dose IV Vitamin C in China. Three studies last I read, and with major success. This also occurred with Ebola, with success. There are doctors who are trying to get the medical community to pay attention to these antioxidants that help the body heal itself. The health of your own immune system is what keeps you from succumbing to death from any virus. The air quality alone in China is horrific and has to be impacting the bodies ability to heal itself. Take the precautions suggested and go have a good time!

[disneysteve]

While coronavirus may peter out like SARS did and hopefully not become a pandemic, it should be taken far more seriously than flu at this time because: (1) death rates for flu ~0.1% as compared with 3% for coronavirus (the latter I'd consider "frequently fatal" and not the former) (2) coronavirus is currently a BSL4 (Biosafety level 4) agent, as there's no effective vaccine or treatment and there's a high mortality rate from infection, (3) unlike flu, there's very much still unknown about this pathogen, for example, how individuals who have appeared to have cleared the virus will fair long term.

Yes to all of this.

Sure we are familiar with Coronavirus. There's a chance someone reading this right now could have it or have had it in the past. But this particular strain of Coronavirus is new and different and not well understood yet. It's proving particularly deadly compared to routine strains.

And it's China where the flow of information is highly restricted and censored because the government controls the media. Officials aren't at liberty to speak freely. So who knows how much we haven't heard.

[Like2Plan]

"Is China getting this right?

At least 19 people, mostly seniors, died in a senior center in Wuhan. As of last Thursday, 11 seniors died from respiratory failure after recurrent fevers, a nurse at Wuhan Social Welfare Institute told Caixin Global, a Chinese business newswire. She said the facility didn’t have Covid-19 testing capability and many medical workers have had fever symptoms. Other symptoms include a dry cough and gasping for breath. If not tested, then the person is not counted by Chinese public health leaders as being a coronavirus patient."
Forbes link:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapo.../#596fdbfd6c43 "Iran's deputy health minister has coronavirus

Iran's deputy health minister Iraj Harirchi has been infected with the new coronavirus, a ministry official said on Tuesday, amid a major outbreak in the Islamic Republic.
"The coronavirus test for Mr Harirchi, the deputy health minister who was on the front lines combating the coronavirus, was positive," Alireza Vahabzadeh, a media adviser to the health minister, said in a tweet.
Harirchi coughed occasionally and appeared to be sweating during a press conference on Monday with government spokesman Ali Rabiei. "

How does this happen? The deputy health minister for gosh sakes.

"Hundreds of staff and tourists staying at a hotel in Spain’s Canary Islands were reportedly put under lockdown on Tuesday, El Pais newspaper reported. It comes after one person that had stayed at the establishment was later found to have tested positive for the coronavirus. A spokesperson for the Canary Island’s health department told Reuters on Tuesday that health checks were underway for those who had contact with the patient — thought to be Spain’s third case of COVID-19. As of Monday, the World Health Organization (WHO) had identified two cases of the coronavirus in Spain. — Meredith"


CBS link:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

The above article is what I am talking about with the travel disruptions. I think countries are trying to do the best they can, but this is an emerging disease which is not well understood at this time. Honestly, I would rather see folks overreact with precautions and be wrong than to under react (and be wrong).