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Average stock returns over next 50 years

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    Average stock returns over next 50 years

    Of course we can't predict this, but what would be a conservative guess, after inflation?
    Buffet says 6-7%, is this after inflation?
    Another, and probably too conservative estimate, could be that with international equity risk premium being 4% and bonds paying close to nothing now, the inflation adjusted return will be 2-3%.
    What do you guys think?

    Ill tell you in 50 years.


      Depends on your choices, risk tolerance and making changes as circumstances change. We anticipated the value to double every 7 years. With a few exceptions like 2008 - 2011 the increases have been far higher.

      While inflation is a factor, anecdotal evidence I see suggests taking care of health factors and having good genes are more important than most of us realize. Seniors use/spend a lot to cope with medical issues.


        It also largely depends on the shifting ideology in our government: The winds of socialism are reaching Washington. Now that we have ACA, the next conquest is free college tuition for everyone.

        As the economy transitions from capitalism to socialism - and it most surely is headed that way at the demand of the electorate - you will find that the US's economic growth will come to resemble the European countries - which is much more sluggish than the US has been, historically.

        Of course, a sluggish GDP necessarily affects profits, which then affects stock prices, which then affects returns.
        Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

        -George Carlin


          I'm concerned returns are going to be less than historical for a number of reasons, but not terrible. My plan to deal with it is to concentrate more on dividend payers as they *should* be more stable and may grow better as well. Plus if you're looking for inflation adjusted returns of 2-3%, a dividend payer giving out 2+% just needs to tread water and you're already there. Just my gut feeling on it, if I knew the future I wouldn't be here talking about it.

          On a somewhat political rant, if the elites stay in power (here in the US), they want to continue to allow unlimited immigrants, which they say will help the US economy. If you look into the analysis, it turns out all of this benefit goes to the business owners in lower labor costs. So if you think they will stay in power, you would be wise to become part of the business owners - that is... a holder of stocks in large companies. Its my plan to survive this. The lowly wage earners sure aren't going to benefit.
          Don't torture yourself, thats what I'm here for.