Is your local area showing recession signs?

[disneysteve]

We were talking about this over the weekend. We keep hearing about the credit crunch, the mortgage issues and housing problems, unemployment, etc. and how the government wants to stimulate more consumer spending. But in our area, these problems just don't seem to exist. The malls are packed. Stores are packed with buyers, not just browsers. Restaurants are mobbed. People don't seem to be able to spend any more or faster than they are already spending. It is just non-stop. New stores and new restaurants are constantly opening and they are busy with customers from the moment they open their doors. We see no signs of people cutting back, staying home, shopping less, eating out less, etc.

So where is this recession we keep hearing about? What are things like in your area? Have you seen signs of people slowing their spending, stores struggling, etc.?

[Like2Plan]

We were talking about this over the weekend. We keep hearing about the credit crunch, the mortgage issues and housing problems, unemployment, etc. and how the government wants to stimulate more consumer spending. But in our area, these problems just don't seem to exist. The malls are packed. Stores are packed with buyers, not just browsers. Restaurants are mobbed. People don't seem to be able to spend any more or faster than they are already spending. It is just non-stop. New stores and new restaurants are constantly opening and they are busy with customers from the moment they open their doors. We see no signs of people cutting back, staying home, shopping less, eating out less, etc.

So where is this recession we keep hearing about? What are things like in your area? Have you seen signs of people slowing their spending, stores struggling, etc.?

I didn't think you could really declare a recession until certain economic indicators have been met ie a decline in any country's gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year. It is a large scale event. I think it is too early to use the "R" word. Though, weren't the wholesale prices up 6% last quarter? (That is not an encouraging sign. )

[disneysteve]

I realize recession is an economic term and involves GDP, but all week they've been talking about the stimulus plan to get more money into people's hands so they can spend it. What I don't see is any need for that as people are spending non-stop around here. An extra few hundred dollars doesn't seem like it would have much impact. But I also realize that there are probably areas of the country where this isn't true and there may already be evidence of people struggling and stores hurting for business. I was just wondering if what I'm seeing locally is unusual. Based on all the news reports, I get the impression that it is.

[atomicrc11]

Up here in Boston, I drove north of the city to go to Costo and Target. Both were packed with non-stop people checking out. We went to Panera for lunch, and there was actually a wait to get a table with a line to the door. I'm not seeing it either. At this point the whole recession talk is more myth than fact. We won't know we're really in a recession until we are already out of it in 12 months or so.

[Joan.of.the.Arch]

Well, unemployment was up in my state from November to December, so some more people have less to spend, I would think.

I don't think I go to stores often enough to be able to notice a difference in spending. I see stores both closing and opening in the last few months.

Here we get a big shot in the economic arm due to military and aeronautic contractors. Business has been good in that area. NASA just awarded a big contract here this week. All that is government spending, though, and the kind that is said to be a factor in inflation.

[mom-from-missouri]

I see it where I live, but I don't see it when I go to the city.

In our small town, in the last 3-4 months, we have lost a restaurant, 2 antique stores, a gymnastics center, butcher shop and a spa. This is in a town of under 3000 people. Most in this community are farmers, so perhaps the farmers are feeling it more with the increase in fuel, and the decrease paid at the coops this fall for crops. Corn prices are up to buy corn, but farmers were not paid more for it when we took in our crop. Seed corn prices I am sure will be higher this spring as well.

When I go to the city, I see people shopping, eating out and spending. Perhaps their industry has not been effected the way farming has. DH is concerned about it because not only do we farm, but the company he works for makes the products (herbacides/pesticides) farmers use on the fields. If the seed corn is too high this spring, more farmers may switch to cattle and that in turn can cause layoffs at his work. A man at church was just laid off from his job-he worked where they made corn burning stoves. He said the sales have dropped on those stoves and 3 were laid off. A construction worker friend of ours is also laid off--he does cabinet work in new homes.

I think some areas are feeling it already and others are not.

[Ima saver]

Well, we certainly see it here. We are in construction and no one has a job. No houses are being built. There are about 800 unsold spec houses and lots of them are going into foreclosure.
We build spec houses, but we are not going to build any more until the housing market picks back up. My dh is building a large spec house for someone else, but when that is over, he will have nothing to do.

[bishop]

no signs here where I live...super low unemployment, construction is still going strong, stores and restaurants are always packed. Even the car lots are busy.
Heck, the county I work in, had 30,000 new homes built last year...we have a population under 100,000 (well, I;m sure that number is up now )

Honestly, I think the media has a big part in this...tell something long enough, and people start to believe it. All we hear is we are in a recession, or heading for one (maybe, maybe not)...but if it is not true, but that is all that is talked about, it kind of becomes self-fulfilling.

[disneysteve]

it kind of becomes self-fulfilling.

I wonder about just this problem. Will people with perfectly good jobs in stable areas start cutting back on spending because the talking heads on the news say that's what they should be doing? That would cause the local economy to suffer for no good reason.

[jasanderson]

I live in MN, in a suburb of Twin Cities and I can tell it's kind of hitting my town. Our little local town paper had 9 pages of foreclosures, there is very little part time job postings or even full time and there have been some pretty large companies (3M, Boston Scientific, etc.) that have laid people off. I hear talk of "possible" receission - heck, my checkbook tells me I have been there for awhile.

[MonkeyMama]

Actually we are losing a lot of restaurants and such as well. & the piles of foreclosures. & the cost of resale items has come down considerably as troubled homeowners sell all their possessions to try and dig out.

It is definitely noticeable here. I have a lot of friends looking for other sources of income because their sales jobs aren't working out so much in recent months.

Of course, this is foreclosure central.

[Ima saver]

We are in a small town in the mountains of N. Georgia. Things were booming here a year ago. Our problem is that all the people from florida that want to move here, cannot sell their homes in florida!

[bjl584]

I wonder about just this problem. Will people with perfectly good jobs in stable areas start cutting back on spending because the talking heads on the news say that's what they should be doing? That would cause the local economy to suffer for no good reason.

I too am somewhat guilt of this. I have already started looking at areas of my budget where I can cut spending and save more "just in case." I think that it's only natural that anyone that is financially responsibility would react to bad economic news in this way.

[poundwise]

I don't believe the vast majority of people are even remotely qualified to judge "recession signs." (Unfortunately, that includes many of the talking heads on television too, apparently.)

Since you are asking if people see negative economic signs such as a slumping housing market or rising unemployment, etc., then sure, most people are well-aware of that.

In my area, no. Things are not growing like they once were but neither do we see signs of "hard times" at this point either. Housing is strong, no major layoffs in the area, and like disneysteve, if the stores are any indicator, spending sure isn't down. Of course, since people are largely financial irresponsible, and often have the habit of buying that which they cannot afford, a downturn in spending might be the last indicator one would see.

[rob62521]

Things have been slowing down here in the past few months -- very few homes are being built and none on spec. However, we've been hit hard in the past five years with businesses closing. Yet, Wal-Mart is as busy as ever and the mall is packed. The neighbor works for a mortgage company and she said she only closed on two mortgages for the month of December which is killing her budget. She said January hasn't been any better. I don't know if that's because of the time of the year or if it's because things are getting tight. She said she's cutting back on her spending.

I would concur that the media does tend to scare people when they talk about recession because once they get that bone, they keep mentioning it.