Final Unemployment Numbers Released Before the Election

[bjl584]

Unemployment Report: Final Fodder for Election - U.S. Election 2012 - CNBC

[disneysteve]

I don't think I'll ever understand how they arrive at this number. It says that the rate went up slightly because more people who are out of work are actively looking for jobs. How do they know that? When I was out of work, how could the government know if I was actively looking for a job or not? I didn't tell anybody when I sent out a resume or made a phone call. I didn't have to report in to anyone.

[bjl584]

I don't think I'll ever understand how they arrive at this number. It says that the rate went up slightly because more people who are out of work are actively looking for jobs. How do they know that? When I was out of work, how could the government know if I was actively looking for a job or not? I didn't tell anybody when I sent out a resume or made a phone call. I didn't have to report in to anyone.

I think a lot of the polling is done through employment agencies and through payroll companies. The rest is probably done through phone call surveys the same as political polling.

[disneysteve]

I think a lot of the polling is done through employment agencies and through payroll companies. The rest is probably done through phone call surveys the same as political polling.

All of these numbers are just estimates. I think the media often treats them as absolute fact. The truth is we have no idea how many people are actually out of work. We have no idea how many are actively seeking work. We have no idea how many are working but at reduced pay to their former jobs.

To say that going from 7.8% to 7.9% represents an increase given the fact that it is just an estimate is ridiculous. I'm sure the margin of error of the estimate is much larger than 0.1%.

[GrimJack]

It is mostly statistics - yeah, the Mark Twain quote: lies, damned lies and statistics - but also statistics is the path to knowledge. Check out the Bureau of Labor Statistics.