How much does luck play in success?

[jeffrey]

New research published in PNAS, a leading interdisciplinary journal, suggests reasons why the richest should pay more tax; why rewarding the top performers leads to recurrent crises and scandals; and why we should resist the temptation to learn from and imitate the most successful.

Successful people don't like to have their success explained by luck, while audiences, too, seem unwilling to acknowledge the role of luck in determining success. As a result, the stories of the most successful attract the most media attention - described as 'extreme success' in this research report. These outliers are perceived to be the most skilful and so receive the highest rewards and get imitated.

However, new research by Dr Chengwei Liu, Assistant Professor of Strategy & Behavioural Science at Warwick Business School and Professor Jerker Denrell at Oxford Saïd Business School shows that the idea that the exceptional performers are the most skilled is flawed. The reason is that exceptional performance often occurs in exceptional circumstances. Top performers are often the luckiest people, who have benefitted from rich-get-richer dynamics that boost their initial fortune...

Reward the second best, ignore the best | WBS

[disneysteve]

the idea that the exceptional performers are the most skilled is flawed. The reason is that exceptional performance often occurs in exceptional circumstances. Top performers are often the luckiest people, who have benefitted from rich-get-richer dynamics that boost their initial fortune.

I think that all makes sense. I know people who have done extremely well and I have never seen any evidence that they possess skills or knowledge that exceeds that of those around them. Part of it is luck - being in the right place at the right time. Part of it is personality - being willing to take a chance on something when others weren't. Part of it is perseverance - being willing to stick with something long enough to see results rather than giving up too soon.

[JoeP]

I think you also need to look at how highly successful and happy people conduct themselves.

For example, some may label another as "lucky" because that person happens to find money on the ground often. But did it occur to anyone that scanning the ground often will lead to finding things that others have lost?

Also, if someone is taking the effort to contact others in their field, engage in friendly conversation, network even casually, and participate in forums such as these, that their likelihood of making connections increase and that some of those connections could turn out to be valuable either for them or the second party? For example, I might get a referral to save me money, or forge a casual business alliance.

Getting a good craigslist score and reselling it on ebay for 5x what you paid may get you the label of "lucky" when in fact you made an intentional effort to search and resell.

Of course, there will be people who get ahead in such a way that their position exceeds their skills. Whether by luck or nepotism or charisma, it happens.

It has been my experience that intentionally seeking "something" as opposed to waiting for it to come your way is sometimes interpreted as luck. Not to say that this is the only avenue, but if it could increase your happiness or level of success, why not do it?