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How long before stocks recover to their previous highs?

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    How long before stocks recover to their previous highs?

    This morning on CNBC, there was talk of 5 years, although one fellow was more optimistic - sometime late 2021. 5 years really isn't much time. Right now I would take that.
    Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

    -George Carlin

    #2
    I think 3-5 years is probably right.

    That means we’ve got a while to dollar cost average into our 401k and Roth accounts and ride that recovery.
    Steve

    * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
    * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
    * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

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      #3
      You know what I find interesting, you were a haoxer of all this covid stuff a month ago...now, you cant stop posting doom/gloom scenarios. I always love to see those ultra conservative, everything is fake sort of people come to their senses. You were making all sorts of jokes in these threads, whats the sudden change? Just goes to show how easily everyone can be manipulated.

      https://www.savingadvice.com/forums/...r-buying-masks

      https://www.savingadvice.com/forums/...p-in-may/page3 (last year, snakes killed 100,000 people worldwide)

      This is my favorite though... https://www.savingadvice.com/forums/...p-in-may/page4

      Post 46 and post 50. Here are your quotes:

      Post 46

      02-25-2020, 10:31 AM
      At its worst, corona virus isn’t even a blip on the map. It’s fake news and hysteria. Something for CNN and the rest.

      Heck we have 3500 deaths per day on the roads and no one is sounding any alarms.

      Ridiculous.

      Post 50

      02-25-2020, 05:55 PM
      I’m sure it could be a legit pandemic killing millions. Count me as a skeptic. Yes, you might catch corona and die, but you probably have a better chance of getting run over by a water buffalo on your way to work tomorrow.

      Pack a few extra bath towels just in case.


      I also captured the screenshots if you'd like me to post those...just in case you decide to delete your previous posts. ^this stuff right here, is ridiculous.

      Comment


        #4
        Let’s skip the personal attacks. TH has already said in another post that he underestimated the seriousness of this initially, as did many other people including at the highest levels of government. Let’s focus on moving forward together
        Steve

        * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
        * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
        * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by disneysteve View Post
          Let’s skip the personal attacks. TH has already said in another post that he underestimated the seriousness of this initially, as did many other people including at the highest levels of government. Let’s focus on moving forward together
          Understood...

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by TexasHusker View Post
            This morning on CNBC, there was talk of 5 years, although one fellow was more optimistic - sometime late 2021. 5 years really isn't much time. Right now I would take that.
            Well, I think it would help if folks could see where we were headed. I believe there is a biological limit on this. At some point--we will reach a certain level of community immunity. Dr Fauci believes you will get immunity once you have recovered. So, how long and how much pain do we go through to get there? The sooner we can get a handle on this, the better for us health wise and economy wise.

            I have seen different ideas. These first two months are meant to buy some time so that we don't have so many cases to deal with at once. Also, we need to spool up our testing. At some point, one model that was suggested was instead of everyone on confinement--testing and confining. Key here is cooperation and lots and lots and lots and lots of testing (and faster test results). I've seen other models as well.

            Also, it does look like there are therapies that have some promise. Here are a couple of examples I've read about: University of Washington is usinghydroxychoroquine on all patients requiring hospitalization (and who can tolerate) it with some encouraging results. Apparently, one of the side effects is hydroxychoroquine can cause problems with the heart rhythm--so, they are doing base line ekgs and then another ekg after administering the drug--something they are watching real carefully. Another hospital in Seattle is using remdesivir with good results.
            https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/...t-coronavirus/

            The number of new cases is going to look scary for a little while because we are doing more testing--maybe not evidence of the number of cases accelerating, but just that there are a lot of cases out there already. Also, I saw an estimate of 7-10 days before we will see the results from the social distancing we are doing right now. So, the numbers will go up. Hopefully, we can start to see them slow.

            https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


            What has surprised me the most is Washington state. It has been estimated that is has been circulating in the community since Jan 15th when the first case came to light. (They did the contact tracing, but they believe they may have missed someone). They have far fewer positive cases than New York. Are they doing less testing? Are the steps they took earlier starting to pay off? On the other hand, maybe Covid -19 has been circulating in New York undetected longer?

            Social distancing and testing does work. Look at South Korea. It is not a lost cause.

            Comment


              #7
              I believe that now is the time to buy. Unfortunately, i am limited as i am saving as much aa possible for a down payment on a home. I am buying a few shares every week, although I'd love to hoard. Oh, well. Something's better than nothing! We'll see.

              Comment


                #8
                I think it really depends how long this drags on and what the real numbers are when data on the economy is released over the course of the next few months. I'd guess at least a couple of years. The 3 to 5 estimate sounds fair, so long as there isn't some other major event during that time (war, another virus, some unforeseen financial bubble breaking)
                Brian

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