Anyone planning on buying AAPL (Apple Stock)?

[kv968]

Hmm, I wasn't aware. Going to have to do some research.

Up $580 on my option right now. Tempting to take the money (30% profit in 2 days) but I think it could go higher. Risky though.

Somebody once said to me that options are crack cocaine of the financial world. Could be true.

Congrats on a decent pop today. Fortunately I've sold all of my puts. Unfortunately a call I sold yesterday for a $40 loss would have been a $1000 winner today

Yeah, options can be like crack. Unfortunately crack's very bad for you and options can be likewise at times also. Terrific highs and terrible lows.

[Nika]

I should have sold it. I got greedy. Now I am sitting on 2 very risky options totaling $3,200. Getting nervous.

I wonder why Apple does not make another announcement about how many iphone 5s they sold by now.

[kv968]

I should have sold it. I got greedy. Now I am sitting on 2 very risky options totaling $3,200. Getting nervous.

I wonder why Apple does not make another announcement about how many iphone 5s they sold by now.

Fear and greed and "shoulda, woulda, coulda"...Ain't trading great? It could still work out, you've got time.

I thought you only had the Nov 700 C option. What's the other one?

[Nika]

I thought you only had the Nov 700 C option. What's the other one?

When it dipped, I bought another one for $1,511.

[kv968]

When it dipped, I bought another one for $1,511.

Oh, ok. Well, you've got some time so it could work out. I personally think it'll get back to at least the $680-690 range somewhere before then. If it does maybe think about getting out then. At the very least you should get some increased volatility as earnings comes up. It's just a matter of will the time decay work too much against you.

Good luck and let us know what you decide to do.

[Nika]

I'm thinking in can bounce when invitations to press start going out next week for the ipad mini presentation.

My logic is they are releasing that cheaper device just in time for holiday shopping season. And while people may not get their teenagers a $600 ipad, if there is a $300 mini version, a lot of people might.

[kv968]

My logic is they are releasing that cheaper device just in time for holiday shopping season. And while people may not get their teenagers a $600 ipad, if there is a $300 mini version, a lot of people might.

That's my thinking too. They're also trying to capture some of Kindle Fire market before the holidays since that's the main option for those who don't want to pay $600 for a tablet.

It's not about the profit on the device anymore as much as getting people into their ecosystem. It's basically the "give them a razor for free so they buy the blades later" scenario.

[Slug]

I bought into the Dec 700 today. Seems to be showing stability around the 666 range. I'll dump it on a bump to 685 or so which seems plausible headed into the holiday season and earnings/AAPL announcements.

[Nika]

That's my thinking too. They're also trying to capture some of Kindle Fire market before the holidays since that's the main option for those who don't want to pay $600 for a tablet.

Teens are not begging for kindles, they want ipads. And if they become much more affordable, that will be pretty much #1 requested gift.

It's not about the profit on the device anymore as much as getting people into their ecosystem. It's basically the "give them a razor for free so they buy the blades later" scenario.

Agree with the ecosystem comment. But more in the "gateway drug" sort of way than the razor analogy. Apple makes money on hardware, and they used software (itunes) to get people hooked on the hardware. They don't do amazon thing at selling hardware at a loss to get customers. (Profits from itunes are insignificant and incidental to Apple. They are operating it to make hardware more attractive and easy to use).

[kv968]

Teens are not begging for kindles, they want ipads. And if they become much more affordable, that will be pretty much #1 requested gift.

Teens may be begging for a Kindle but mom and dad are paying for them so if they see a $600 iPad vs. a $200 I think for the most part the kid's getting a Kindle no matter how "uncool" it is.

Agree with the ecosystem comment. But more in the "gateway drug" sort of way than the razor analogy. Apple makes money on hardware, and they used software (itunes) to get people hooked on the hardware. They don't do amazon thing at selling hardware at a loss to get customers. (Profits from itunes are insignificant and incidental to Apple. They are operating it to make hardware more attractive and easy to use).

"Gateway drug" is a good way of putting it. That's more along the lines of what I meant. What's the marketing term? Sticky?

I know Apple's profits are mostly from the hardware, but I think in this case they're be willing to take a cut in that profit just to get people on that "gateway drug".

[kv968]

I bought into the Dec 700 today. Seems to be showing stability around the 666 range. I'll dump it on a bump to 685 or so which seems plausible headed into the holiday season and earnings/AAPL announcements.

$666 does seem to be support. As far as that option, don't only keep an eye on the price of the stock but watch the IV also. You might be best off selling it right before the earnings depending if volatility gets high enough and just making your money off of that.

[Slug]

$666 does seem to be support. As far as that option, don't only keep an eye on the price of the stock but watch the IV also. You might be best off selling it right before the earnings depending if volatility gets high enough and just making your money off of that.

Agreed. I'm holding plenty of VXX so my eyes never travel far from volatility.

[kv968]

Agreed. I'm holding plenty of VXX so my eyes never travel far from volatility.

The problem with VXX is it's a wasting asset due to contango if the VIX futures don't move (which they really haven't for months). As a matter of fact, check your VXX holdings because they just had to do a 4:1 split today due to the diminishing price. I had some options on it and didn't make out too well with them this time around.

However as far as AAPL goes, don't just rely on the VIX, let alone VXX, to tell you the volatility of it. Keep track of the IV on the option itself.

[kv968]

For those who still have AAPL calls out there. You might want to look at closing them out before the earnings announcement.

After the announcement some of the IV is going to come out of the option and if it falls back to "normal" you may need a ~$30 price movement up just to keep the option price where it is now.

Good luck.

[Bryan Cranston]

Some project Apple going to over $1,000/share. Others see the heyday of Apple having passed.

Personally I think the market share of competitors is slowly easing Apple off its dominant position. It's not necessarily a 'sell,' but neither is it a 'buy.'