My investment breakdown, comments wanted

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Jeffmem,

I only own silver indirectly, through an ETF and I have recently speculated on a mining co. . .ECU, which is on the Toronto exchange.

I have bought SLV.

For the real conspiracists out there, another alternative is SIVR, which all silver in their holdings is imbedded with a serial number and been independently audited with regards to their inventory.

The real conspiracists constantly worry about shorting that has happened in the silver market.

I was in on REZ at one point - it's a real estate ETF. I got out and went into the bank stocks. . .after I made a 20% gain on it. . .theorizing bank stocks had further to go than real estate.

Since the two are kind of married at the hip, and REZ has appreciated 40% in one year and XLF has remained relatively near 14-15/share, maybe it's best I just hang on and await for the financial sector to recover.

Or mabye split the difference. . .

[jpg7n16]

Thanks for all your replies guys.

What kind of real estate are we talking about?

I think Scanner was talking about REITs, and 97guns was talking about owning the physcial properties.

What stocks or funds are you guys looking into now?

My most recent purchase was TNH.

Half and half. I looked at the companies, they looked good, had analysists saying it was buy time, scout trader was 8-10, articles I read about these companies seemed very positive. So I did my homework, and they looked decent, at least at the time, I have to admit that since I have bought them that perhaps I haven't really followed up with how they were doing, other than looking at the price of the stock. Perhaps all those numbers now have tumbled and it's time to get out while I still have profit inside.

Well that's good news There are people a lot smarter than me out there that value these companies, so maybe they know something I don't. Or maybe the fundamentals have drastically changed since you bought in. But as is, these all look like speculation stocks. You'd need that roulette wheel to land on Black to make some money here (IMO).

Your analysis is great, investors should consider buying stocks just like how you described, that's a great point.

Thanks I learned the general idea from Ben Graham's Intelligent Investor - and came up with that example on my own. Def recommend that book to anyone considering investing in stocks.

[jeffmem]

I only own silver indirectly, through an ETF and I have recently speculated on a mining co. . .ECU, which is on the Toronto exchange.I have bought SLV.

Ahhh ok. Do you mean, ECUXF? They are trading around $1. Cannot find much info on them though.

I was in on REZ at one point - it's a real estate ETF. I got out and went into the bank stocks. . .after I made a 20% gain on it. . .theorizing bank stocks had further to go than real estate.

REZ is climbing like mad, but not sure how long that can last, it's already around 40 bucks a share, up from just $10 in 2009, wish I had knew about this then... And XLF seems way down.


Not sure what REITs are, will have to look it up.

TNH is way too high for me to even consider. I stick with things below 30 if I can, the lower the better.

I decided for sure I am dumping APRI on Monday. I still feel AIS, CECE, INO, and BP are still decent companies and have potential to explode. Though I will look closer at them. STRM, I am also considering to dump.

Thanks I learned the general idea from Ben Graham's Intelligent Investor - and came up with that example on my own. Def recommend that book to anyone considering investing in stocks.

The link you gave me is for the newest version right? Seems 2003.. around 603 pages..

[Scanner]

Yeah, try not to make investment decisions based on where the share price is as j. notes. . .although I admit I do sometimes too.

Individual stock speculation is not my thing - ECU was my second I ever did.

[jpg7n16]

Ahhh ok. Do you mean, ECUXF? They are trading around $1. Cannot find much info on them though.

It's better if you search for ECU Silver Mining. You can find more info that way:

ECU Silver Mining Inc.: TSE:ECU quotes & news - Google Finance
ECU.TO Key Statistics | ECU SILVER MINING INC. Stock - Yahoo! Finance

This is the link for the most recent filings of their financials, as available on Morningstar.com - last financials updated were from Q3-2010, and it looks like the company lost $5.5 million of equity in the 1st 9 months of 2010. I'd stay away from them too.

ECU Silver Mining Inc.(ECU) Annual Report (10K) Quarterly Report (10Q)

Not sure what REITs are, will have to look it up.

They are essentially mutual funds that only hold real estate. In practice, that's pretty much how they work. REIT = Real Estate Investment Trust

TNH is way too high for me to even consider. I stick with things below 30 if I can, the lower the better.

Sorry, what do you mean? Are you investing less than $100 total on each company? Won't commissions eat you alive at that rate?

Or are you only looking at the price and saying 'that's too high' - assuming that the price having 1 or 2 more digits means it's more expensive?

I was trying to point out that this is a fallacy of your less than a $1 idea. A low dollar figure for the per share price, doesn't mean it's cheap, and a high dollar figure doesn't mean it's expensive.

Given the amount of earnings per share, the price of TNH makes sense to me, so I bought it - planning to reinvest the dividends and hold it for a very long time. I only have 20 shares cause of the high per share price, but that means I have about $2300 invested in what I feel is a profitable company. I'm okay with that.

I decided for sure I am dumping APRI on Monday. I still feel AIS, CECE, INO, and BP are still decent companies and have potential to explode. Though I will look closer at them. STRM, I am also considering to dump.

Okay, but just so you know, AIS, hasn't generated a profit in at least 5 years (Income Statement for Antares Pharma Inc. (AIS) from Morningstar.com) INO had sales of $5million and expenses of $26million. It also hasn't had a profitable year in at least 5 years (Income Statement for Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc. (INO) from Morningstar.com)

What is it about these 2 companies that you think is decent?

CECE and BP only appear to have had bad years this past year, so maybe there's something in those two. Maybe it was just an off year. BP did have a huge oil spill to clean up so maybe it's an anomaly and they'll be back on track.

The link you gave me is for the newest version right? Seems 2003.. around 603 pages..

Ummm not sure if it's the newest edition or not - if so, only the commentary has been updated. Which I didn't bother reading the commentary anyways. I wanted the ideas directly from Ben Graham himself. No matter which edition you get, his original words and ideas are what makes the book worthwhile.

I posted the Amazon link so you could see the book. I'd check it out from a library, or buy from half price books.

[jeffmem]

jpg7n16

Thanks for the information about ECU, I will check it.

I just checked REIT, sorry I didn't know it was a ticker symbol. Are there others like this? Because this one is about $900/share. I don't want to touch it. For me I can only buy stocks, mutual funds and the like as I am not currently living in the US. As tempting as real property seems right now, I can't, and I dont think I have enough capital to own a lot of pyshcial property anyway.

Sorry, what do you mean? Are you investing less than $100 total on each company? Won't commissions eat you alive at that rate?

Sorry let me explain my meaning... Stocks over $100 a share I won't even look at, because at most I would be investing only like 2k. At that price I could only buy 20 shares, it doesn't seem like a good idea to me. I try to find stocks under $30/share, even better if they are below $10 a share, to me they have more potential to grow, some new companies also. Yes, perhaps my strategy here is a bit flawed, but if I buy 1000 shares at $2/share and the stock goes up to $10 I gain more than if I buy a stock at $100 a share and it goes up $10. Because of the quantity of shares I own. $30 and below is within my budget right now, I would never buy google or something like that as I just cannot afford it. So I look for decent companies in the price range I can afford.

I was trying to point out that this is a fallacy of your less than a $1 idea. A low dollar figure for the per share price, doesn't mean it's cheap, and a high dollar figure doesn't mean it's expensive.

Yes, I know, I need to start considering that, most stocks I buy are around $1 up to about $7. But I have been known to do 20's and 30's, but fewer.

Given the amount of earnings per share, the price of TNH makes sense to me, so I bought it - planning to reinvest the dividends and hold it for a very long time. I only have 20 shares cause of the high per share price, but that means I have about $2300 invested in what I feel is a profitable company. I'm okay with that.

I simply don't have enough money to buy this stock. At $100 a share, I would only invest about 2k as above, so I end up with only 20 shares, I would have to wait a significant amount of time to get any return on that, I woudl probably end up getting frustrated and selling the stock, much like I did with NNN. If this $100 a share stock goes up 100 a year, then that's a compeltely different situation.

Okay, but just so you know, AIS, hasn't generated a profit in at least 5 years (Income Statement for Antares Pharma Inc. (AIS) from Morningstar.com) INO had sales of $5million and expenses of $26million. It also hasn't had a profitable year in at least 5 years (Income Statement for Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc. (INO) from Morningstar.com)What is it about these 2 companies that you think is decent?

If they have not earned a profit in 5 years, why is the stock up then? Seems odd.

This is my gains over the last 8-20 months depending on the stock.

AIS: 73% gain
INO: 24% gain
APRI: 36% gain
BP: 34% gain
STRM: 5% gain
CECE: 70% gain

I guess this is what I see in these companies...

Strong buy even now ais Analyst rating, analyst recommendation - MSN Money
Very strong buy even now ino Analyst rating, analyst recommendation - MSN Money

StockScouter Stock Rating System - Antares Pharma Inc (ais) - MSN Money
StockScouter Stock Rating System - Inovio Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (ino) - MSN Money

And after checking, apri Analyst rating, analyst recommendation - MSN Money also has a strong buy, but only has one rating. I am still considering to dump it.

This is what I see in those two companies, AIS and INO. Perhaps they are going to sell the company, I dont know. Maybe I am speculating too much.

CECE and BP only appear to have had bad years this past year, so maybe there's something in those two. Maybe it was just an off year. BP did have a huge oil spill to clean up so maybe it's an anomaly and they'll be back on track.

Yep, oil spill mess still.

Low strong buy cece Analyst rating, analyst recommendation - MSN Money
Messy but, as a huge company like this, I think they will be back up to 50-60 soon, oil spill mess I think. bp Analyst rating, analyst recommendation - MSN Money

And STRM there is no rating at all, it may be time to dump it too.
And ZLCS has little rating, but one strong buy, but I read some articles about this company thus my reason for recently purchasing it.

I don't know, after revisiting some of these companies, I am not sure I want to sell any of them yet. haha, I guess I didn't learn anything... I need to re-evaluate everything and look closely at these companies, perhaps APRI is still gone today. STRM is close by, but INO and AIS I dont know... I just feel they are ready to explode, new drug discovery or something, or they are about to make a profit this quarter. I need to check.

Ummm not sure if it's the newest edition or not - if so, only the commentary has been updated. Which I didn't bother reading the commentary anyways. I wanted the ideas directly from Ben Graham himself. No matter which edition you get, his original words and ideas are what makes the book worthwhile.

I posted the Amazon link so you could see the book. I'd check it out from a library, or buy from half price books.

ok, then the origianl text is more important, I will buy it soon. Thank you again for this recommendation.

[jpg7n16]

I just checked REIT, sorry I didn't know it was a ticker symbol.

If REIT is an actual symbol, that was not my intention. I'm not recommending a specific company. A REIT is a special class of mutual fund.

Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Definition

Sorry let me explain my meaning...

From what you mean, we're still coming at this different ways. Suppose there are two identical companies, both with a market cap of $50 million - and one is trading at $5/share and the other at $100/share - that per share price is completely irrelevant. For you to double your money, the market cap has to rise to $100 million either way. This means that the first stock rising to $10/share is equally as likely as the 2nd rising to $200/share.

Using the hypothetical figures above, company 1 would have 10 million shares. Company 2 would have 500,000. So if both companies earned $1 million, company 1 would have only earned $0.10/share while company 2 would have earned $2/share. But each earned 2%.

The only thing different is company 1 has more shares outstanding than company 2. Owning 1 share of company 2 is equivalent to owning 20 shares of company 1. (both would be valued at $100)


A high dollar amount is irrelevant. You should always be seeing how the return for your share compares to the price for that share.

I simply don't have enough money to buy this stock. At $100 a share, I would only invest about 2k as above, so I end up with only 20 shares

I'm not trying to convince you to buy this particular stock, but I am trying to convey a different idea about the dollar figures in the prices of stocks. In that they don't matter.

$2000 is $2000, whether you get 10 shares or 10,000 shares - in order for you to double your money, the entire company has to double in value. Which is equally likely regardless of how many shares are outstanding.

If they have not earned a profit in 5 years, why is the stock up then? Seems odd.

It is odd. Very odd. And it's because of Mr. Market. See Intelligent Investor for details.

I guess this is what I see in these companies...

Strong buy even now ais Analyst rating, analyst recommendation - MSN Money
Very strong buy even now ino Analyst rating, analyst recommendation - MSN Money

StockScouter Stock Rating System - Antares Pharma Inc (ais) - MSN Money
StockScouter Stock Rating System - Inovio Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (ino) - MSN Money

And after checking, apri Analyst rating, analyst recommendation - MSN Money also has a strong buy, but only has one rating. I am still considering to dump it.

Those analysts are on crack. They rate the earnings growth on AIS as a positive... hmmmmm

Well earnings are growing. 4 years ago they lost $8 million, and then it grew to losing $9 million, then to losing $13 million, then back to only losing $10 million again. So the math correctly indicates that -10million/-9million = 1.11 = 11% growth in earnings over the past 3 years. But the system seems to ignore that they are growing the wrong direction!

So they are saying the outlook is good. Only 1 explanation makes sense: crack.


Those links also said that the price/earnings ratio was negative, so logically (based on their system) this had no effect on the rating?? What??? How is that not a negative?


IMO - these are total crapshoots. You need those dice to land on 7 - and you have to hope that earnings will be positive somehow. This is not good enough for me to consider an investment.

So yeah, maybe the stock will shoot through the roof. Maybe their next trial drug will cure cancer, and they'll turn into a cashcow. I have no idea. But that's not a gamble I'd personally take. When I invest my money, I want to see a company that has already proven it can earn money - and is trading at a reasonable/low price.

[jeffmem]

jpg7n16
If REIT is an actual symbol, that was not my intention. I'm not recommending a specific company. A REIT is a special class of mutual fund.

Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Definition

Ok, thank you, I will have a look at this. I think I need to start looking in this direction, but need to do a lot of research first.

From what you mean, we're still coming at this different ways. Suppose there are two identical companies, both with a market cap of $50 million - and one is trading at $5/share and the other at $100/share - that per share price is completely irrelevant. For you to double your money, the market cap has to rise to $100 million either way. This means that the first stock rising to $10/share is equally as likely as the 2nd rising to $200/share.

Using the hypothetical figures above, company 1 would have 10 million shares. Company 2 would have 500,000. So if both companies earned $1 million, company 1 would have only earned $0.10/share while company 2 would have earned $2/share. But each earned 2%.

The only thing different is company 1 has more shares outstanding than company 2. Owning 1 share of company 2 is equivalent to owning 20 shares of company 1. (both would be valued at $100A high dollar amount is irrelevant. You should always be seeing how the return for your share compares to the price for that share.)

I understnad what you mean, but I guess I am just used to thinking that a lower valued stock has more room to grow compared to a stock that is already over $100/share, unless you are google or something like this.. I need to evaluate and consider and perhaps change my way of thinking about this. I guess what I think is that I have more to lose for a higher priced per share stock than I do with a lower priced stock, but this simply isn't the case is it..

I'm not trying to convince you to buy this particular stock, but I am trying to convey a different idea about the dollar figures in the prices of stocks. In that they don't matter.

No, but I am looking at them, and evaluting what you said before. The stock looks decent, and in an industry that is already rising. The cost today is 116/share but it's all time high is only like 150. I just feel getting to 150 will take longer than a stock going from $1 to $2..

What do you feel there potential is? 200-300?

$2000 is $2000, whether you get 10 shares or 10,000 shares - in order for you to double your money, the entire company has to double in value. Which is equally likely regardless of how many shares are outstanding.

I suppose that is true, concept problem, I need to work on it.

It is odd. Very odd. And it's because of Mr. Market. See Intelligent Investor for details.

Those analysts are on crack. They rate the earnings growth on AIS as a positive... hmmmmm

Well earnings are growing. 4 years ago they lost $8 million, and then it grew to losing $9 million, then to losing $13 million, then back to only losing $10 million again. So the math correctly indicates that -10million/-9million = 1.11 = 11% growth in earnings over the past 3 years. But the system seems to ignore that they are growing the wrong direction!

So they are saying the outlook is good. Only 1 explanation makes sense: crack.

ROFL!!! They might be, but 3-4 say buy, I have no idea why... Just that the company may be showing signs of a turn around, I don't know. I am doing more research now to see what the heck is going on.

Those links also said that the price/earnings ratio was negative, so logically (based on their system) this had no effect on the rating?? What??? How is that not a negative?

You got me, I also feel it is a negative, but the price is still up, unless everyone is speculating...

IMO - these are total crapshoots. You need those dice to land on 7 - and you have to hope that earnings will be positive somehow. This is not good enough for me to consider an investment.

Perhaps.

So yeah, maybe the stock will shoot through the roof. Maybe their next trial drug will cure cancer, and they'll turn into a cashcow. I have no idea. But that's not a gamble I'd personally take. When I invest my money, I want to see a company that has already proven it can earn money - and is trading at a reasonable/low price.

I don't think it will cure cancer, but I think INO will change the way we think about vaccinations and what not in the future, it is entirely possible, but I see their numbers just don't work.. They have a lot of trials going on now, and that could be why analysts are saying to buy it. I will keep you up to date on that one, as I do nto plan to sell them, at least not right now. I will consider.

[jpg7n16]

I understnad what you mean, but I guess I am just used to thinking that a lower valued stock has more room to grow compared to a stock that is already over $100/share, unless you are google or something like this.

Just because it's a low price, doesn't mean it's a low valuation. I would suggest you begin looking at the total market cap, in comparison to total assets and total net income.

A company could do a 10:1 stock split, just to make their price look lower - but nothing has changed. It's the same company, and it's worth the same.

No, but I am looking at them, and evaluting what you said before. The stock looks decent, and in an industry that is already rising. The cost today is 116/share but it's all time high is only like 150. I just feel getting to 150 will take longer than a stock going from $1 to $2..

What do you feel there potential is? 200-300?

So you're saying you feel it would take longer for a company to increase by 50% in value than to increase by 100%? Not sure I follow.

I understand a feeling that it's easier for company's market cap to go from $50 million to $100 million, than from $2 billion to $4 billion. And I agree.

But you can't look at price only. Take TNH vs C: TNH price $117 market cap $2.16B. C price $4.55 market cap $132.21B. For the price of C to double (to $9), the company has to double to $264 billion. For TNH to double (to $235), the company only has to go to $4.5 billion.

Using the Yahoo screener, I found 862 companies with prices less than $10/share that have higher market caps than TNH. Meaning that although the per share price of TNH is higher, it is actually a lower value than the others.


I also feel it's easier for a company that's making money to increase in value, than for a company that's been losing money for the past 5 years to double in value.

ROFL!!! They might be, but 3-4 say buy, I have no idea why... Just that the company may be showing signs of a turn around, I don't know. I am doing more research now to see what the heck is going on.

Well keep in mind that I'm not a bio-tech analyst or anything. Maybe I'm dead wrong on these two because of some factor I just don't know about. Maybe all their trials look promising, but no final product has been created yet, so they have nothing to sell - ergo the losses each year. I don't know.

All I know is, right now, I wouldn't touch those companies.

So if you decide to hold them, then I wish you the best For your sake, I hope they turn profitable!

[jeffmem]

I understand a feeling that it's easier for company's market cap to go from $50 million to $100 million, than from $2 billion to $4 billion. And I agree.

Yep that was what I as thinking.


B

ut you can't look at price only. Take TNH vs C: TNH price $117 market cap $2.16B. C price $4.55 market cap $132.21B. For the price of C to double (to $9), the company has to double to $264 billion. For TNH to double (to $235), the company only has to go to $4.5 billion.

Not quite following this one...

Using the Yahoo screener, I found 862 companies with prices less than $10/share that have higher market caps than TNH. Meaning that although the per share price of TNH is higher, it is actually a lower value than the others.

Can you send me a link to this? I would like to check it out for myself and see.

I also feel it's easier for a company that's making money to increase in value, than for a company that's been losing money for the past 5 years to double in value.

So just curious why did you invest in tnh?

Well keep in mind that I'm not a bio-tech analyst or anything. Maybe I'm dead wrong on these two because of some factor I just don't know about. Maybe all their trials look promising, but no final product has been created yet, so they have nothing to sell - ergo the losses each year. I don't know.

All I know is, right now, I wouldn't touch those companies.

So if you decide to hold them, then I wish you the best For your sake, I hope they turn profitable!

Drug companies sometimes are like this. I think like what you said, trials look promising, they have spent a long of money, but once they get approval for the drugs then the stock should shoot up and the companies numbers should balance out a little. I don't know. I am still considering to keep all of them, I keep doing more reading and finding they arent that bad... yeah i know.. it's risky.

APT was around 1.5-$2 for like 4 years, and then it shot up to 7, that didn't last long though, and now it is back down to where it was when I first bought it, but I made some good money on it when it was high. I still own the stock, was hoping it was going to keep going, but it didn't and I didn't sell.

[jpg7n16]

Not quite following this one...

See I think that's one of your misconceptions about a 'low' price. For C to move from 4.55 to $9/share - the entire company would have to raise in value $132 billion. That's because there are just soooo many shares of Citi outstanding.

But for TNH to raise $117/share (to $234), the company has to increase from $2 billion to $4 billion. There aren't as many shares outstanding, so each share is worth a lot more.

But Citi (C) - the whole company- with a price of $4.55 is worth 66 times what TNH is with a price of $117.

Don't look at solely the price per share, look at the total market cap too.

Can you send me a link to this? I would like to check it out for myself and see.

http://screener.finance.yahoo.com/newscreener.html

Run the screen with 2 criteria. 1) Price < $10; 2) Market cap > 2

So just curious why did you invest in tnh?

Last 5+ years of showing a profit
High operating margin
High return on equity
Raised EPS in 2009, when many companies were cutting back due to economic conditions
4.5% dividend rate
High free cash flow

and the company is trading at around 13-15 times earnings per share, when other companies in their industry trade for around 28 times earnings. (this could be due to the high dividend payout)

Last year, EPS was $8, and in the last 12 months, EPS has been about $10. So the price at $117 makes sense to me. I'd prefer to get it cheaper - wish I could have got it back in June when it was in the $60's, but I feel it could easily sell between $150-200 share, and on my investment that's at least a 30% gain - if those prices materialize, which I don't know that they will.

But if the company can stay that profitable for the next 5-10 years, I should do very well.

[jeffmem]

See I think that's one of your misconceptions about a 'low' price. For C to move from 4.55 to $9/share - the entire company would have to raise in value $132 billion. That's because there are just soooo many shares of Citi outstanding.

But for TNH to raise $117/share (to $234), the company has to increase from $2 billion to $4 billion. There aren't as many shares outstanding, so each share is worth a lot more.

But Citi (C) - the whole company- with a price of $4.55 is worth 66 times what TNH is with a price of $117.

Don't look at solely the price per share, look at the total market cap too.

Ahhh ok, it has to do with the shares plus the value of the company, not just one factor. I got it.

http://screener.finance.yahoo.com/newscreener.html

Run the screen with 2 criteria. 1) Price < $10; 2) Market cap > 2

Thank you a very useful tool. Lots of variables to plug in.

Last 5+ years of showing a profit
High operating margin
High return on equity
Raised EPS in 2009, when many companies were cutting back due to economic conditions
4.5% dividend rate
High free cash flow

and the company is trading at around 13-15 times earnings per share, when other companies in their industry trade for around 28 times earnings. (this could be due to the high dividend payout)

Last year, EPS was $8, and in the last 12 months, EPS has been about $10. So the price at $117 makes sense to me. I'd prefer to get it cheaper - wish I could have got it back in June when it was in the $60's, but I feel it could easily sell between $150-200 share, and on my investment that's at least a 30% gain - if those prices materialize, which I don't know that they will.

But if the company can stay that profitable for the next 5-10 years, I should do very well.

I see. I did notice in one article the information you posted above.

Well, yeah and I wish I had invested in oil 10 years ago when it was like $40 a barrel.. oops.. But I understand, it would be nice to know the future and get in early on some of this.

[jpg7n16]

Looks like I picked a bad time to get in on TNH huh??

Darn you magic 8 ball!! Why did you say 'outlook good'???


Good thing I'm not a short term investor

[jeffmem]

My goodness did the market tank yesturday. I have never seen this ever in my portfolio, I lost nearly $600 bucks yesturday.

AHSAX -11.37
AIS -10.00
BP -52.50
INO -60.00
NED -4.00
NIV -160.00
PRASX -73.3073
SLV -91.00
STRM -179.80
ZLCS -15.00

All but three sank. It is the worst performance I have ever seen so far. and poor you wow, it's down to 105! Maybe I will buy now, much better than it was the other day at a 117! But like you said short term it's not good, but long term seems ok.