Our resident biotech guy: GNTA

**gambler2075** · 12-31-2010, 03:03 AM

Originally posted by Scanner View Post

What do you think of this one? I know nothing about the biotech. market from an investment standpoint.

They are working on developing a cancer drug and is a penny stock.

I'm guessing that would be me

I've actually watched GNTA for years now, from before it was delisted, and I remember as it made it's slow way down to penny status. Genasense was not impressive way back when and I really think that although it does have the potential to move alot, I try to stay away from penny stocks. Sure, they can be fun due to their potential for 500%+ returns, but they are just as likely to dilute their way to oblivion, imo.

So my basic rule is to stay away from these penny-stock bios, for the most part.

g

**KTP** · 12-31-2010, 08:34 AM

Oxigene (OXGN) is another penny stock you can take a look at. It hasn't been delisted (yet), but it is getting very close I think. I bought 5000 shares last week at $0.21 but then a few days later said to myself "what are you doing, you know nothing about this sector!?" and sold them at $0.24, only to see it hit a high of $0.27 a few hours later. Now it is back to $0.23 though. Even though I am trading options now, the biotech stuff scares me more.

**Scanner** · 12-31-2010, 10:40 AM

Hey, it's not "Penny Stock"; the term is "Micro-cap", Gambler.

Microcap.

Learn it.

It makes me sound much more sophisticated.

Seriously, I only thought of playing with $500.00 or something if I sold off some of my ECU - the other drugs are in Phase 2 and 3 but again, I ain't know nothing about birthing no pharmaceuticals.

**Scanner** · 01-03-2011, 02:08 PM

My analysis: I'm axeing GTNA from my potential possibilities.

**Naples09** · 01-03-2011, 07:19 PM

Hey guys. I've been reading your threads the last few months.

I'd like to ask if you know anything about ACTC? They have two of the three currently approved FDA trials for stem cell treatments. The stock has had a nice run over the last month, but they claim potential revenues of $25B if the trials go well this year.

**gambler2075** · 01-03-2011, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by Naples09 View Post

Hey guys. I've been reading your threads the last few months.

I'd like to ask if you know anything about ACTC? They have two of the three currently approved FDA trials for stem cell treatments. The stock has had a nice run over the last month, but they claim potential revenues of $25B if the trials go well this year.

I don't mean to sound like Mr. Wet blanket here, but I pretty much am anti-penny stocks. I have followed ACTC for a couple of years as well, and remember trying to trade it on momentum back at 12 cents a year or 2 ago... I just didn't like the way it traded. Reminds me of ANX and the way it ran up alot and then crushed everyone.

Basically, my opinion of these penny stocks is that it is far more dangerous to trade them than people imagine. Of course ACTC has already run up a ton and unless you catch them on the 1st DAY of the runup, the risks outweigh the rewards. I did go through a phase for a couple of years when I thought that the penny stocks were where the money was made, but now I absolutely stay away from them. The exception might be a stock under 1$ that was beaten down from much higher in the past year and has possible catalysts.

I think there are far better (and much, much, MUCH safer) pharmas that trade on the big boards that, were someone to want to speculate in the pharmas, they should trade.

g

p.s. the most important think I would say about penny stocks is that, by the time you would think of buying one, unless you are a trader that trades 10-14 hours per day and are on top of pretty much all the newsletter pumps/messageboards BEFORE excitement builds, then you are probably getting the "ACTC is da bomb" hype right at the very end... When everyone has already bought and is selling the shares to you. I would also say that you should not believe the hype on many of these penny stock companies.

p.p.s. That being said, I am just expressing my personal opinion towards these types of stocks. I am not trying to convince anyone to buy or not, just to consider the risks... Good luck.

**gambler2075** · 01-05-2011, 05:34 AM

Originally posted by Naples09 View Post

Hey guys. I've been reading your threads the last few months.

I'd like to ask if you know anything about ACTC? They have two of the three currently approved FDA trials for stem cell treatments. The stock has had a nice run over the last month, but they claim potential revenues of $25B if the trials go well this year.

Hehe, it almost never fails. Just when everyone starts getting interested in a stock, even those who don't really trade, that is usually when the price has peaked. I'm not using you as an example (or maybe I am

) but when you asked about ACTC on Jan 3 it peaked at 26-27 cents, and now a couple of days later, it is back down to 19c (a loss of ~30%).

Basically my point is that you should never try to buy a stock when everyone is talking about it, but you either should buy it early and then SELL when everyone is talking about it, or just buy contrarian (like I always try to do).

g

**Slug** · 01-05-2011, 08:56 PM

So what you're saying gambler is that now ACTC is a value play, right?

**KTP** · 01-06-2011, 04:59 AM

Gambler is busy selling his ARNA at $2.10 that he bought back in at $1.40

**Slug** · 01-06-2011, 06:20 AM

I don't follow much biotech but my thoughts are that HGSI is a compelling short play. Vertex is likely to eat their lunch in HCV and Merck is likely launching at the same time.

Also all the good news in SGEN seems to be baked into its price. Might be available for an option short straddle.

**tommybitt** · 01-06-2011, 06:21 AM

I have to agree with Gambler....I don't mean to sound like Mr. Wet blanket here, but I pretty much am anti-penny stocks.

Unless you trade full time...the risk will never be worth he reward. Your better off playing the lottery.
my strategy...buy companies with proven track records that pay a nice dividend and have some growth potential. Then periodically do your homework on them to check their "health".
and if you "need" to get a daily trade "fix", do it with only 10% of your investment pot. Weighing the risk>reward is most important to investing.
And do it soon...2011 is going to be a good year for growth companies.
I'm no pro...but I did sleep at Holiday Inn last night.

**Scanner** · 01-07-2011, 07:27 AM

Okay, I am going to disagree here on a few points.

First of all, unless you know the "club" here, we all pretty much understand to not bet the entire house on a penny stock. But I am sure the forum at large appreciates a reminder to the newbies who may be reading that yes, you only speculate with 5-10% of your portfolio.

As far as "penny stocks" (some arbitrarily define that as below $5/share), you wrote:

Unless you trade full time...the risk will never be worth he reward. Your better off playing the lottery.

Well, if that's the case. . .I hit the lottery with ECU.TO, when it was trading at $.76/share. It's now been holding between $1.20-1.30. I have a bottom of $1.00 on it.

And let's just say as far as the lottery, I am just not that lucky of a guy.

Sometimes the risk is worth the reward. I like an arbitrary risk:reward ratio of 1:2. Now, does that mean it's a Slam Dunk? No, of course not. Sometimes you make the most calculated of risks and bam. . .you come up on the short end.

With GTNA, my opinion is there is a reason it is trading at $.02. . .and has been delisted (which means no financials are verified). . .it's barely hanging on by a thread and has it's eggs all in one basket - a few cancer trials. To me, even if they come up big, I am not sure they can even market it (and drug marketing is huge - just ask DisneySteve).

I put a risk:reward on that of 2:1, almost flipped.

So, it was a "No Speculate" for me.

With ECU. . .they seemed to have everything in place. . .management seems strong. Commodity prices are at least good for the short term. The risk:reward seems 1:2 on that one, even at $1.20.

That's how I think about these things. I think no matter what the price - $.01, $1.00 or $100.00, this is how one should think as an "investor."

As a trader, I have no idea - ask Gambler. I guess he's thinking they'll be buyers later that day, that week, whatever. . .like a salesman or a peddler (and I don't mean anything snide by that as he makes 500K/year as a peddler).

But I am not sure we think the same at all.

Our resident biotech guy: GNTA