Let's make a deal question.

[Broken Arrow]

The Deal or No Deal show is actually a fascinating exercise in probabilities and statistics. If you can keep your head on straight and keep crunching the numbers as you go, in each step, you can indeed mathematically maximize your gains while minimize your risks.

The interesting curve ball is with the banker who counter-offers you throughout the show. For whatever reason though, I find that the banker tends to low-ball his offers most of the time. Maybe they want the show to drag on longer, or maybe they are preying on the contestant's sense of greed, I am not sure. In certain extras they throw in are interesting and often hard to quantify.

But in the occasional times that he does offer a sweet deal that's above the mean, people still don't always take it. And that's when the fascinating psychological aspect of the show enters, wondering just how people work and why. Of course, they are also on the show whereas I am sitting in the sidelines.

Oh well, just early morning rambling.

Edit: Interesting. NBC has a free flash version of the game show available here

[Scanner]

Of course, they are also on the show whereas I am sitting in the sidelines.

BA,

And there you have it. I submit that even the level-headed DisneySteve and the sensible Broken Arrow could get greedy on the show and blow it all and walk out with $5.00.

You don't know how you are going to react when $200,000 is on the line. I totally admit I don't know how I would react.

It's always a balance in investing. . .the thrill of (easy) gain vs. the fear of loss.

I agree the banker often low-balls and he does a good job of "prodding" them with dares to take risks - he'll say things like, "I think you should take it and you'll never go on." or "I'm getting nervous."

What I hardly ever see a contestant do (and probalby because most aren't businessmen/women) say, "You know what? I think $50,000 is actually a good deal. A win/win."

I guess it doesn't make for a good show.

[disneysteve]

What I hardly ever see a contestant do (and probalby because most aren't businessmen/women) say, "You know what? I think $50,000 is actually a good deal. A win/win."

I guess it doesn't make for a good show.

Exactly. I'm sure they hand pick the contestants and coach them on how to play to make the show exciting. If every player accepted the first good offer, it wouldn't be nearly as entertaining.

I'm sure that actually being there doing it can cloud your judgment as you can get caught up in the excitement, but I think kit depends more on the individuals they choose to feature. Some people go into it thinking, "I came in with nothing. If I leave with nothing, I'm no worse off than I started." Those are the players they want. They don't want the players who think, "I came in with nothing so anything I can leave with is an improvement."

Many times, the people on the sidelines are even stupider than the one playing. I can tell you 100% without a doubt that if I was up there and turned to ask my wife if I should accept the $150,000 offer, she would say yes. She is not the risk-taker in our relationship. She hates to lose $20 at the casino.

[Broken Arrow]

BA,

And there you have it. I submit that even the level-headed DisneySteve and the sensible Broken Arrow could get greedy on the show and blow it all and walk out with $5.00.

It is possible that I may be overcome by greed.

It is also possible that I may be overcome by fear and bail to early.

It is also possible that I may be able to keep my cool enough to not lose the numerical perspective.

To me, emotions are a detriment in number games, and be it stock trading or even gambling at a casino, I've done the best I could to not let it get the better of me. I am only human, but this is something I do constantly strive for.

[disneysteve]

To me, emotions are a detriment in number games, and be it stock trading or even gambling at a casino, I've done the best I could to not let it get the better of me.

Exactly. When I'm playing blackjack at the casino, I stick strictly to basic blackjack strategy no matter what else is going on around me, what other players are doing, whether I'm winning or losing. I know that the odds are what they are and I can't alter them based on anything I do. It is a numbers game, not an emotions game.

Last time I was at the casino a couple of weeks ago, the bozo next to me was saying all kinds of things about what was "due" to come out or how things would change since another player left the table or joined the table or some other nonsense like that, thinking that any of that really influenced the outcome of the game, like the cards cared who was sitting in which seat. It is amazing that so many people actually believe that stuff.

[Broken Arrow]

Last time I was at the casino a couple of weeks ago, the bozo next to me was saying all kinds of things about what was "due" to come out or how things would change since another player left the table or joined the table or some other nonsense like that, thinking that any of that really influenced the outcome of the game, like the cards cared who was sitting in which seat. It is amazing that so many people actually believe that stuff.

At least you didn't get a chain-smoking, cranky old lady yelling things at you, like, "It's all your fault! You sitting there screwed up the cards for me!" and "What are you crazy? You're going to hit that 15?"

[disneysteve]

At least you didn't get a chain-smoking, cranky old lady yelling things at you, like, "It's all your fault! You sitting there screwed up the cards for me!" and "What are you crazy? You're going to hit that 15?"

When that happens, I just take my chips and move to another table.

Of course, like I said, I play strict strategy so I'm never the one getting yelled at (though some people will criticize me for hitting 12 against a 2 or 3) but I don't like when other players are getting harassed either.