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  • #16
    Originally posted by Scanner View Post
    But only if you consider my radical suggestions
    Always! Agree or disagree, I always consider everything that comes my way. Trading is important enough to me that I can never allow personal ego to get in the way of making money....

    I should also emphasize that I have no vested interest in changing anyone else's mind. Everyone else are free to invest and trade as you see fit. My real interest lies in only trying to understand the true nature of the market. To simply find, understand, and state the truth. Whatever you see from me are written only with that in mind.

    It's just that commercial real estate looks to be in a bubble also and I would probably opt for residential at this point.
    This is verbatim to what I have stated elsewhere regarding my current position to real estate plays. The commercial real estate seems like a walking powder keg that may or may not blow at any second. And when it does, it's likely that it'll take even the "bottoming" residential with it.

    So, for now, I haven't touched either one. However, I am interested in getting a stake of residential real estate eventually.

    my spider senes tingle and you all tell me to stay the course and then I lose half my shirt.
    Well, maybe you're on to something... but then, I've also heard a lot about behavioral investing where people tend to do the wrong things because they base their trades on their emotions rather than objectively with the data at hand, even if that data points to market sentiments, and ultimately, human emotions.

    Eh, that probably didn't come out sounding right, like I'm accusing of being irrational or something, which I assure you I am not.

    The thing here is that I believe it's very important for every trader to be able to separate their strategies on investing and trading. Because, these are two very different, and sometimes, contradictory exercises.

    Some of the comments I've made in the past is over investing, and others are over trading. And to someone who may not have noticed, it will sometimes seem like I am contradicting myself, but that's why.

    My Janus comments were made using investing not trading strategies, because a mutual fund, especially internationals, are simply too difficult to valuate. And if you don't know where it's going, then the best thing to do is to fall back to passive investing strategies, where such strategies are designed with diversification in mind, rather than valuation.

    In fact, in 2008, JAOSX took a particularly brutal loss of 57.3%. So, it just depends....

    But as always, you don't have to agree with me. Ultimately, it's your money.

    For international plays, I'd much prefer to hone in on the Chinese market. For example, even though China Mobile has already run up, I say it may still be worth buying in, because the Chinese mobile market is still growing, and we all know what an ubiquitous necessity a cellphone is in the 21st century.

    Conversely, if you still want to dabble with real estate, I hear Hong Kong is a good place to look into. The darn place is already over-crowded, but word around the campfire is that it refuses to stop growing, thus leading to some crazy real estate prices.

    Bubble in the making? Asians are a bit different in that many are extended families whose combined income of several working adults allows many to often times buy a house out-right and in cash. Asians are also culturally very debt-adverse. Of course, no speculation is guaranteed, but I do think it's much safer in that respect than the American housing market....

    But the my point anyway is that, when it comes to trading, I try to find opportunities and try to surgically hone in, not take the blind shot-gun approach of mutual funds or ETFs, and hope I hit something. But when it comes to passive investing, the shot-gun approach is exactly what I want.

    Anyway, I'm rambling....
    Last edited by Broken Arrow; 09-23-2009, 03:11 PM.

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    • #17
      Why not just buy individual TIPS? All you need is a Treasury Direct fund and you're good to go. No need to pay a commission to a fund company.

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      • #18
        Scanner,

        First of all, sorry to hear about your pending divorce. Good luck buddy.

        Just to crawl out of my "pundit" hole , may I suggest you take a look at the SPDR DB International Government Inflation-Protected Bond ETF (ticker:WIP)? It's an ETF that, well...tracks TIPS internationally. It's an unhedged ETF so there's a currency risk that comes along with it since it holds securities in 18 different countries and 15 different currencies, mostly A-rated though. However if the old dollar starts to weaken, that'll work in your favor.

        Just figured it'd be something for you to look at as you prepare your doomsday portfolio
        The easiest thing of all is to deceive one's self; for what a man wishes, he generally believes to be true.
        - Demosthenes

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        • #19
          LOL. . .yeah, I like being a contrarian here, don't I?

          I am actually now considering:

          50% Silver (SIVR)

          and

          50% REZ (tracks residential REIT index)

          I kind of like that portfolio - commodities and real estate until I figure out where this train wreck of the stock and bond market is going. And it's pretty simple allocation but a little low on diversity. Still. . .real estate and silver can never be worth nothing so I think I can sacrifice a little on the diversity. As per 1929. . .it's certainly possible that stocks and bonds just be worth the paper they are printed on, even if unlikely.
          Last edited by Scanner; 09-27-2009, 05:47 PM.

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          • #20
            Scanner- I took a peak at 401k yesterday when I had to check on things for wife (her once a year step up to 401 occurs in September).

            All funds were up at least 20% in both her 401 (with Fidelity) and my 401k (which is institutional funds). I do not think any of my 401k funds returned LESS than 25%.

            I checked Roth, which is more detailed in fund selection/ allocation.

            If I were to put new money anywhere, it would be in
            a) Health care
            b) Real Estate

            I do not think either have hit bottom, and from reading T Rowe's perspective on health care, (N)Obama's current crusade is beating down all health care stocks for no good reason. The T Rowe global real estate fund had not ballooned up like the financial services fund (I opened both accounts on same day), so I think real estate has a ways more to go up.

            I am trying to find what is low as I am buying only right now, not looking to sell anything.

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            • #21
              I am not as bullish on healthcare short term although as our country ages, it's not a bad long term play.

              Unless we find ways to "export healthcare" around the world, our current situation is unsustainable. There is a correction for a good reason - it's expensive, it's inefficient, and our outcomes are marginal.

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