Anyone else sell today? I did after a 33% gain in my portfolio

**Broken Arrow** · 07-30-2009, 01:51 PM

Oh yeah, I got out today. The sell was executed beautifully, I just wish I could say the same for the buy. In retrospect, I bought too high, and so my gain was minimized. But a gain is still a gain, and given the position that I had taken, I am convinced that selling today was the right move for me to make.

**Russell** · 07-30-2009, 02:59 PM

I read your blog and I have to admit that it makes sense to be concerned with the commercial real estate tanking next due to a lot of small business going out of business and the larger ones shrinking.

So what're you planning to buy next? I'm thinking my next buy will be alternative energy as I really see a future for solar and wind-turbines etc.

**Broken Arrow** · 07-30-2009, 04:21 PM

Yeah, the bottom line for me was that I had a lot more downsides than up at this point, so today was an excellent day to sell.

As for my next position, I am convinced that we are in a sideways market, and the appropriate general strategy isn't so much to be a bull nor a bear (and never a pig) but a "cowardly lion".

And what do people typically chase in a cowardly lion market? Dividends. I might end up doing something as simple as buying a (corporate) bond and call it a day.

But good bullish positions are out there, I'm sure. I'm still looking though....

I dunno about green plays right now. Obama's main political thrust at the moment is health care, and even now, it's losing steam. I'm sure he'll get his compromise eventually, but I don't know if there'll be enough room for Obama to champion any other causes right now.

If fact, earlier this month, in a radio documentary, there was this interview about how an ethanol start-up is struggling to keep venture capitalists interested.... I think the biggest green push ultimately won't be from the White House, but rather, from the price of gas itself. And right now? It hasn't been shooting up like before.

There's also talk about some kind of regulation to limit controls of commodity holdings for institutions, if only because the federal government is worried about experiencing another huge oil bubble, which, sure it's a great time to make some mad money, but overall, it was disruptive to our economy. I doubt the regulation will take hold, but suffice to say, once such a bubble forms, it's a lot less likely for the same bubble to take hold again. Same thing with the housing bubble.

As an alternative energy play, how about fertilizers? Mosanto and Potash has been taking a beating this entire time. However, fertilizers will fuel China's growing consumer needs, as well as making a play on ethanol. I just checked the charts, and the train may have already started rolling, but maybe it's not too late....

I'm rambling, but basically, still looking.

**elessar78** · 07-30-2009, 06:14 PM

I'm a novice when it comes to individual stocks. Do you do a lot of research when you purchase a particular stock? If so, what materials do you use? Internet? Annual reports?

Is investing your primary source of income or do you do this on the side?

**Scanner** · 07-30-2009, 06:55 PM

Still watching my silver. . .waiting for the gov't to print more funny money.

**Broken Arrow** · 07-31-2009, 07:05 AM

Originally posted by elessar78 View Post

I'm a novice when it comes to individual stocks. Do you do a lot of research when you purchase a particular stock? If so, what materials do you use? Internet? Annual reports?

Is investing your primary source of income or do you do this on the side?

I'm a bumbling amateur who does this on the side for the sake of learning and keeping myself off the streets.

But seriously, it's more of a learning experience than anything, because although I certainly hope to make gains, I don't think it is realistic to believe that my trading can be so good and have it last long enough that it can become my primary source of income. The majority of my money is still in passive buy-and-hold.

I don't know how many cumulative hours I spend "researching". I rummage off and on throughout each trading day, and monitor the markets daily. But it's fun to me, so I don't really think it's work or anything.

I literally look at anything, everything, and will listen to anyone (even Kiyosaki). Even on this forum, I take in and consider what everyone says here. I mean, even if I end up disagreeing, I still have to consider the possibility that I am wrong. And to me, it's better to be wrong and still make money than to be "right" but risk losing money.

For the most part though, I have a kind of a process now, which includes community reviews, stock analyst reports, and 10ks. I will go after anything and everything. I know I've talked a lot about stocks, but I don't actually have a preference....

**Russell** · 07-31-2009, 09:25 AM

I'm a novice too and like BA I'm in it for learning. Everyone has a different goal and strategy min was simple:

1. Don't chase short term profits, buy good stocks with a long term potential.
2. Once you pick a few good stocks, buy them when they're low, almost everything is low these days so that works in our favor.
3. If the market yields good results in the short term take the profit, if not, hang on to them for the long term.

My picks were ING, HMC, VTI and VTSMX. I bought the latter before I knew about VTI but it gave me the highest returns since I bought it at its lowest point (some luck some looking at the 52week returns).

For my next picks I'll divide my investment into three chunks:

1. VTI (potential long term)
2. Alternative energy (long term)
3. dividend paying stocks (could work out for both short or long term)

I'll also look into stock options to see if it's something I can do. I still don't understand them well enough to feel comfortable investing there.

**elessar78** · 07-31-2009, 10:40 AM

Nice. I've been toying with the idea of having a small amount invested in individual stocks that I would manage. Like you guys more to learn and nothing like day trading.

**Broken Arrow** · 07-31-2009, 11:31 AM

Couldn't be a day trader if my life depended on it.

Too much faith into arbitrary technicals and rule sets. Plus, I really doubt I could move fast enough, even with good algorithms in place. And to try to day trade around my day job?

I'm a simple, soft swing trader who relies on fundamentals and values to guide me. I focus not on increasing gains, but rather, on minimizing risk (because the very nature of this exercise will bring all the volatility I will ever want to my door). So, in a way, I am following Buffet's way to investing.

**elessar78** · 07-31-2009, 12:23 PM

Funny, I'm currently reading a book about Buffet's investment style (The Warren Buffet Way). Really interesting read so far. I probably should've studied Finance or something similar in college.

His approach to buying companies, how he values said companies, how he decides to buy or not buy certain companies... all interesting.

**Broken Arrow** · 07-31-2009, 12:43 PM

If you find anything interesting, please feel free to share it.

**elessar78** · 07-31-2009, 01:05 PM

oh will do!

I'm only a few chapters in and it's talked about his influences and mentors, like his partner Charlie Munger and two guys who were basically mentors earlier in his career. A guy named Graham and a guy named Fisher.

The first guy taught him how to analyze companies quantitatively from published reports, earnings reports—basically anything the average investor could get his hands on. Fisher taught him how to study a company qualitatively and in-depth. Interviewing people, hearing about rumors, found out what competitors thought, etc. And Buffet's investment theory is a hybrid of those two guys.

In practice he doesn't buy any company who's product or service he doesn't understand, even shunning the tech boom. And he doesn't mind taking the contrarian position—for example one of his early purchases was for an insurance company. While other ins. companies were willing to get into price wars, he was willing to lose market share because he knew the price wars would make competitors suffer and fold and eventually customers would come back to a stable company. He sacrificed sales for a long-term profitable position (in the short-term he was still profitable, but not just as much).

**Russell** · 08-04-2009, 08:47 AM

Now I'm kinda bummed that I sold the stocks a few days too soon

Oh well, can't time the market...I still made a good profit.

**Broken Arrow** · 08-04-2009, 03:09 PM

Me too, but my passive portfolio is benefiting from it!

Anyone else sell today? I did after a 33% gain in my portfolio