Dow up over 8,000.

[disneysteve]

As of now, the Dow is up about 265 points to a little over 8,000. Let's hope it keeps up.

[poundwise]

Nooooooo. I wanted to get in a bit more before it hit 8,000. Oh well, I wouldn't be shocked if there was a bit of a sell off Friday or Monday.

[creditcardfree]

Lately, I just like to check if the market was up or down at the end of the day. Normally, I don't pay any attention.

It's strange talking about 8,000. I remember when the DOW hit 10,000 for the very first time. I was working in the mutual fund industry...so it was exciting to everybody.

[sweeps]

I did a double-take when I first saw the title. I thought, "The Dow is up 8,000 points today?? Wow, sell sell sell!"

[poundwise]

I did a double-take when I first saw the title. I thought, "The Dow is up 8,000 points today?? Wow, sell sell sell!"

LOL

[Broken Arrow]

Heh, was wondering who was going to make this thread, and when. I hear the mark-to-market rule has been eased up and the market heralded it as yet another Great Day.

At this point though, it seems like it's losing some steam, but support looks like it's still out there.

While I'm here, it looks like my previously bearish outlook could be wrong. Well, not wrong in that there is still a lot things that's wrong out there with our economy. However, I just heard this morning about some economic data suggesting that we are finally having a bit of a fundamental recovery in the first quarter results, from housing to lending.

While a slight recovery does not a bottom make, it is still a tantalizing thought. More than ever, if people are still hiding a cave somewhere with their money, I think they need to run out and buy into this market before the train really leaves the station.

[financialnut]

Dang it! Part of me wanted it to stay down for a few more weeks! I've got a bunch of money ready to have transferred over, but I need just a couple more weeks.

Stay down! Stay down!

But, come on- we really can't get too excited right now. It could drop 5% tomorrow.

Usually does...

[tripods68]

I'm just hoping Q! earnings will better than q4. If that's the case I can see the DOW climb back all the way to 10,000 this year.

[kork13]

While a slight recovery does not a bottom make, it is still a tantalizing thought. More than ever, if people are still hiding a cave somewhere with their money, I think they need to run out and buy into this market before the train really leaves the station.

I'm fighting impulses right now to do just that... I have some "extra" cash in some accounts right now, and it's tempting to get a bit further in to ride what may be at least a partial recovery. However, it's really money I'm trying to save for buying a piano. It's a completely frivolous, hobby-related purchase, but still one I'm shooting for, and so I'm trying to beat back the "buy-monkey" that's on my back.

However, my DCA bi-weekly buys are good enough for now, I think.

[Broken Arrow]

Perhaps I've been too quick to "call a bottom" so to speak.

This mini-bull run may be unsustainable after all, considering it's also been running on a series of bad news out there as well, such as the job loss rate being at a 26 year all-time high. That's never good.

Besides, the easing of the mark-to-market accounting rule isn't exactly "good news" despite today's favorable market response. The downside will be less overall transparency down the road. A desperate remedy that is not without its side-effects.... Oh but I guess they can always change that rule yet again eh? It's so hard to make heads or tails out of all this sometimes....

So, despite peeking through the Dow 8000, I think it's still very much a bear market climate, and I plan to continue trading that way.

[kv968]

Nooooooo. I wanted to get in a bit more before it hit 8,000. Oh well, I wouldn't be shocked if there was a bit of a sell off Friday or Monday.

Just wait until the quarterly earnings reports come out and you should be able to buy that "bit more"

[Snodog]

I think we are headed back down again but I could be wrong. The scandinavian countries had a credit crunch back in the early 90's and it lasted 3-4 years. But who knows maybe the fed can pull a rabbit out of the hat?

Another reason why I think recovery may be a while longer is that our savings rate has only gone from zero to 4%. I think it may go to around 8% which is more in line with the historical norm. A larger savings rate will be good for the long term but hurts in the short term.

Market is down about 67 pts to 7950 at the moment.

[disneysteve]

our saving rate has only gone from zero to 4%. I think it may go to around 8% which is more in line with the historical norm.

While I certainly agree that people in general need to save more, there is a big problem with the way that number is calculated. The personal savings rate that we keep hearing is AFTER-TAX savings. It does not include pre-tax contributions to employer plans like 401k or 403b plans. I'm not sure if it includes deductible IRA contributions. It also doesn't include home equity.

The savings landscape is much different than it was years ago. Many more people participate in company-sponsored plans that didn't exist a generation ago. That makes comparing the average savings rate now to then rather meaningless.

As for home equity, the percentage of Americans who own their own home is at a record level. All of that equity isn't counted as savings.

So if you contribute 10% of income to your 401k and bought your house with a 20% down payment, you would show up as having a zero savings rate. If instead you didn't participate in the 401k and bought your house with 3% down, holding a bunch of cash in a bank savings account earning 0.05% interest, you'd be counted as having a high personal savings rate. Definitely a flawed system.

[Snodog]

While I certainly agree that people in general need to save more, there is a big problem with the way that number is calculated. The personal savings rate that we keep hearing is AFTER-TAX savings. It does not include pre-tax contributions to employer plans like 401k or 403b plans. I'm not sure if it includes deductible IRA contributions. It also doesn't include home equity.

The savings landscape is much different than it was years ago. Many more people participate in company-sponsored plans that didn't exist a generation ago. That makes comparing the average savings rate now to then rather meaningless.

Great points! Thanks for your insight as these are things I wasn't aware of. 401k's are relatively new so yeah I'de agree that its impossible to compare. This is good news maybe we will soon be out of this mess!

This is why I stick to my plan of dollar cost averaging every month.

[robsrdd]

Recession vs. depression? How about recession vs. collapse? This is the question Gregor Macdonald asks, and he favors the latter answer. His prognosis? “Based on historical studies, the asset that will survive any endgame of global deflation is gold – with oil also being considered ‘Not as money, but as a store of value.’”

Via Stock Research Portal .com

Don't be shocked if we see it tumble back down.