Post "stimulus" move?

[GREENBACK]

I know this has been discussed a lot lately but this is about to become reality and I'm a little nervous, as is Wall Street. I personally don't have much confidence in this plan and haven't seen the "transparency" we we're promised 3 weeks ago. This thing is being pushed through and no one is getting a chance to read it.


I guess scholarly types should be able to read through 1100 pages of legal material in 12 hours and let everyone know what's coming, or is that just the administration that thinks that way? Gueithner is clear as a glass of mud on this thing.

I'm potentially 9 yrs. from retirement and am not confident as a moderately aggressive investor. I'm considering going conservative on my investments. Is anyone around my time horizon(10-15yrs.) thinking this way?

[tulsa_sr5]

I'm staying with a conservative mix for now too. Personally, I'm ok with missing the start of a bull market that I really can't see coming soon, but would kick myself for the losses if I adjusted to a more agressive mix and the market keeps trending down or flat the rest of the year.

And I totally agree, they couldn't take the weekend to read the bill? Are some of this projects starting this morning? I never expected to pine for the good old days when we "only" had 5 trillion in national debt.

[maat55]

This is America at its worst. All good sense of diligence has been tossed out the window. I did some study on the 1921 recession and found many of the same characteristics, low money supply and credit, high unemployment and contraction in consumer spending, typical recession stuff.

The government cut spending and taxes. The economy recovered in less than two years. In contrast, during the great depression, the new deal was implemented between 1933 and 1939 with no results other than national debt.

Later WWII started, and the economy driven by national defense, rebounded. I've yet to see any proff that stimulus government spending works. IMO, this stimulus is an liberal orgy of useless spending in the name of stimulate the economy.

I don't have stats, but I heard that after the crash in 1929, the market did not fully recover until the 1950's. I'll keep looking. But I would have to think that, investments made from 1929 and on, had moderate gains in this period. IMO, the stock market recovery after the great depression was slower(due to poor government policy) than that of one handled differently. (differently being, tax and spending cuts)

Long story short, in most of the past, we could count on a fairly swift recovery of the market. Due to suspect government involvement, this one may take longer. We have allready seen what looked like a bottom around 8000, weaken after the innitiation of the stimulus.

[wincrasher]

I hate these comparisons to the Great Depression.

At that time, there were none of the safeguards in place that we have now. Then, there was a real possibility that you could starve to death - and many did.

That's not to diminish the pain and anxiety people are feeling now -their pain is real.

What we have now is the downside of panic - something must be done, anything, lest we have a collapse. History will be the judge.

[swanson719]

The recessions last longer with government involvement because of inflation. With the Fed "Buying" our debt - which amounts to billions of dollars being printed and sent into the market - we're going to see 10% minimum inflation, which will spike mortgage rates to at least the same, which in turn will force investors to put their money elsewhere, and we'll see the auto industry go further down because it's secondary to housing. Until we get out of this mess of stagflation, we can't fix the rest.

[zetta]

I'm potentially 9 yrs. from retirement and am not confident as a moderately aggressive investor. I'm considering going conservative on my investments.

I agree with being conservative with the money you will initially need in retirement, that is, the money that you will use to live on 10-12 years from now.

If you retire at 65 and live to 80 or 90, some of the money won't be needed for another 20-30 years, and this money should be invested more aggressively to counter the risk and effects of inflation.