Finally OIL is returning to a normal level

**disneysteve** · 09-15-2008, 07:06 AM

Down to $97/barrel right now. Lots better than $140/barrel.

Of course, stocks are tanking due to Lehman and Merrill and AIG. I think I'd rather have more costly oil and not be losing thousands in my portfolio.

**sweeps** · 09-15-2008, 07:10 AM

Stocks tanking today is a temporary phenomenon. We'll be back up big later this week, I predict.

Ridiculously high oil has long-term consequences.

**sweeps** · 09-15-2008, 07:13 AM

Besides, my 401k contribution goes in tonight. Stocks can go as low as they want today.

**disneysteve** · 09-15-2008, 07:16 AM

I agree. The market gyrations are temporary, though I think it will be a while before we see a sustained growth spurt. Now is a good time to be getting in with long-term money, though.

**Broken Arrow** · 09-15-2008, 09:12 AM

Originally posted by sweeps View Post

Besides, my 401k contribution goes in tonight. Stocks can go as low as they want today.

The real motive comes out.

As for the stock market, although it's rightfully tanking... the damage isn't as bad as I was expecting so far. Dow started out almost -300, but it has been fighting since. It also didn't lose the 11000 support like I thought it might. But then, the day isn't over yet....

I think there may be more blood in the street later, because many more companies out there are in similar positions and the well has essentially dried up. However, I agree this is temporary and we may even be seeing some of the worst of it. In time, this too will pass, and I think those who didn't run will reap the rewards for buying in and staying put.

**sweeps** · 09-15-2008, 11:16 AM

The market's taken a turn for the worse in the last hour or so.

**Broken Arrow** · 09-15-2008, 11:31 AM

I've been reading elsewhere that, because today's collapse is fairly systemic, it could depress the market for as long as the rest of the year. I'm don't know when it will bottom out, but I have to agree recovery won't be anytime soon....

That said, I think today's market weakness isn't solely due to financials. Energy and basic materials is also taking a nice, healthy dive today. Dow loss is at more than 400 at this time, and knocking on the 11000 level.... Yeah, now this is more along the lines of what I was expecting.

**cipixul** · 09-19-2008, 08:11 AM

Over time it will recover all right, but when will it start? More important is where is the bottom?

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**Broken Arrow** · 09-19-2008, 09:57 AM

As I have mentioned earlier, I think we've seen the worst of it. I'm not calling it a bottom however. Some lingering issues remain.

That said, I don't think there's a need to worry about where the bottom is. In fact, I don't think anybody really knows.... If you're a trader, now is as good as any to buy in. If you're a passive investor, just keep dollar-cost-averaging your way through all this market volatility.

**Scanner** · 09-19-2008, 10:02 AM

One article is suggesting hte new trading range for oil is around $85-110.

That does seem reasonable. Of course, catastrophes could drive it higher.

And it could theorectically drop to $60/barrel if there is an economic slowdown.

I am going to start to trade a little oil as I finally think I know what I am doing somewhat.

1. Buy around $90/barrel
2. Buy more if it goes lower
3. Buy more if it goes lower
4. When it goes higher, sell
5. Don't get greedy.

I got in on USO at $76.00

**Broken Arrow** · 09-19-2008, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by Scanner View Post

1. Buy around $90/barrel
2. Buy more if it goes lower
3. Buy more if it goes lower
4. When it goes higher, sell
5. Don't get greedy.

Sooo, what're you trying to saying with #2 and #3?

I absolutely, positively agree with #5. Greed is not a trading strategy.

**Troyrb** · 09-19-2008, 02:22 PM

Don't look now but it just went back up to 104.55 a barrel.

**cptacek** · 09-19-2008, 07:56 PM

I'm torn. Wheat and soybeans have been tracking the oil market...when oil goes down, these crops go down, and vice versa. We have a bit of wheat left to sell and soybeans to sell in the next month or so. I know long term I want oil to go down, but I want to sell the wheat for more than it is now.

**cipixul** · 09-21-2008, 04:04 AM

I agree, averaging is then for me. It's much better to buy in small amounts than to buy it once thinking you're at the bottom. I know I did the mistake last year just before the crisis started to show it's teeth...

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Finally OIL is returning to a normal level